“the Crime & Justice series has become a key resource for universities in teaching criminology and criminal justice… Professor Kemshall has established herself as a leading figure in the concepts of risk, risk management and public protection issues… an invaluable read for those entering Criminal Justice or moving to work in projects or teams at the forefront of public protection” Vista How significant is risk to the formation and implementation of penal policy? To what extent are the tasks and activities of frontline criminal justice workers informed by concerns to assess and manage risk? Has there been a significant 'sea-change' in the delivery of criminal justice, and if so, what are the future implications of this? This illuminating text examines the significance of the concept of risk in criminal justice policy, and in the role of criminal justice agencies and crime prevention initiatives. Particular features of the book include its use of practical examples, coverage of previously unpublished research, and a full review of current risk assessment tools for use with offenders. It is designed with undergraduate courses in mind, providing frequent summaries, lists of further reading, and a glossary. The identification, assessment and management of risk has become a central theme of criminal justice policy. For some penal policy commentators this represents a 'sea-change' in crime management to a new era of 'actuarial justice', that is the management of crime opportunities and risk distribution rather than the management of individual offenders. By drawing on key areas of criminal justice practice such as policing, probation and crime prevention, this book examines the actual extent of this change and reviews the case for a new risk-based penology. The book combines a review of current theories on actuarial justice with a detailed examination of current practices in key frontline agencies. The result is an essential text for criminology students and trainee professionals in criminal justice.

This book puts in one place and in accessible form Richard Berk’s most recent work on forecasts of re-offending by individuals already in criminal justice custody. Using machine learning statistical procedures trained on very large datasets, an explicit introduction of the relative costs of forecasting errors as the forecasts are constructed, and an emphasis on maximizing forecasting accuracy, the author shows how his decades of research on the topic improves forecasts of risk. Criminal justice risk forecasts anticipate the future behavior of specified individuals, rather than “predictive policing” for locations in time and space, which is a very different enterprise that uses different data different data analysis tools. The audience for this book includes graduate students and researchers in the social sciences, and data analysts in criminal justice agencies. Formal mathematics is used only as necessary or in concert with more intuitive explanations.

Drawing on a wide range of cross-national literature and original research by the author, this timely book reviews current approaches to the community management of high risk offenders.

This book aims to provide an understanding of youth offending and policy and practice responses, particularly the risk-focused approaches that have underpinned much recent academic research, youth justice policy and interventions designed to reduce and prevent problem behaviour. There has been growing concern, however, on the part of critical criminologists and others, about the theoretical, epistemological, methodological and ethical bases of risk-focused research with young people. They have pointed particularly to the overly-deterministic and prescriptive nature of the risk factor paradigm. This book aims to meet the need for an exploration of youth justice and youth offending which takes account of the origins and contemporary manifestations of risk-focused work with young people. It analyses the influence of concepts of risk upon policy development in both England and Wales as well as internationally, highlighting tensions between the proponents of risk factor research and methodological and ethical criticisms of the risk factor paradigm. It will be essential reading for anybody wishing to understand risk factor explanation of crime, contemporary youth justice policy and responses to offending behaviour.

Machine learning and nonparametric function estimation procedures can be effectively used in forecasting. One important and current application is used to make forecasts of “future dangerousness" to inform criminal justice decision. Examples include the decision to release an individual on parole, determination of the parole conditions, bail recommendations, and sentencing. Since the 1920s, "risk assessments" of various kinds have been used in parole hearings, but the current availability of large administrative data bases, inexpensive computing power, and developments in statistics and computer science have increased their accuracy and applicability. In this book, these developments are considered with particular emphasis on the statistical and computer science tools, under the rubric of supervised learning, that can dramatically improve these kinds of forecasts in criminal justice settings. The intended audience is researchers in the social sciences and data analysts in criminal justice agencies.

This book examines the impact and implications of the relationship between risk and criminal justice in advanced liberal democracies, in the context of the ‘revolt against uncertainty’ which has underpinned the rise of populist politics across these societies in recent years. It asks what impact the demands for more certainty and security, and the insistence that national identity be reasserted, will have on criminal law and penal policy. Drawing upon contributions made at a symposium held at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand in November 2018, this edited collection also discusses the way in which risk has come to inform sentencing practices, broader criminal justice processes and the critical issues associated with this. It also examines the growth and making of new ‘risky populations’ and the harnessing of risk-prevention logics, techniques and mechanisms which have inflated the influence of risk on criminal justice.

In this penetrating account of the impacts of risk on everyday life, Gabe Mythen provides a theoretically informed overview of the regulation of crime and security in a globalized world. By explicating the relationships between risk and crime, security and justice, the text applies risk to specific incidents and events, scrutinizing social processes and cultural practices, and illumining some of the central social and political issues of the modern age. Extending across a range of domains – including law, the environment, media and politics – Mythen embarks on a conceptual and critical exploration of risk theory. In doing so, his incisive text presents both a critical evaluation of the efficacy of competing perspectives on risk, and an authoritative appraisal of the place of risk within the social sciences.

The Risk in Crime is an investigation of how risk has been dealt with in crime theories and the usefulness of this concept in connecting crime perspectives together; the ways in which risk is embedded in the evolution of crime; and how we might use the concept of risk to prevent crime and victimization.

How can criminological, sociological and historical perspectives illuminate the elusive concept of crime prevention? Are we witnessing a new governance of crime control? What are the futures of crime prevention in late modernity? This book offers a comprehensive overview of current and historical debates about crime prevention in particular and social control more generally. It moves beyond the traditional boundaries of criminology and offers an original re-framing of the field of crime prevention based on a synthesis of exciting new thinking in social theory. In particular, recent theorising around late modernity, risk society, communitarianism and globalization are put forward as important ways of linking trends in crime prevention to wider social transformations. This innovative text looks at the contested history of crime prevention in the modern era and considers present and future trends in social control in late modernity. Hughes focuses on the question of the "managerialization" of crime prevention in recent decades, the extent to which crime control may become dominated by privatized security and insurance against risks, and the attractions and pitfalls of informal community-based approaches. Understanding Crime Prevention will be essential reading for students and researchers in the field as well as many professional and lay people interested in crime prevention and community safety.

Risk-based policing is a research advancement that improves public safety, and its applications prevent crime specifically by managing crime risks. In Risk-Based Policing, the authors analyze case studies from a variety of city agencies including Atlantic City, New Jersey; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Glendale, Arizona; Kansas City, Missouri; Newark, New Jersey; and others. They demonstrate how focusing police resources on risky places and basing police work on smart uses of data can address the worst effects of disorder and crime while improving community relations and public safety. Topics include the role of big data; the evolution of modern policing; dealing with high-risk targets; designing, implementing, and evaluating risk-based policing strategies; and the role of multiple stakeholders in risk-based policing. The book also demonstrates how risk terrain modeling can be extended to provide a comprehensive view of prevention and deterrence.