Machine learning and nonparametric function estimation procedures can be effectively used in forecasting. One important and current application is used to make forecasts of “future dangerousness" to inform criminal justice decision. Examples include the decision to release an individual on parole, determination of the parole conditions, bail recommendations, and sentencing. Since the 1920s, "risk assessments" of various kinds have been used in parole hearings, but the current availability of large administrative data bases, inexpensive computing power, and developments in statistics and computer science have increased their accuracy and applicability. In this book, these developments are considered with particular emphasis on the statistical and computer science tools, under the rubric of supervised learning, that can dramatically improve these kinds of forecasts in criminal justice settings. The intended audience is researchers in the social sciences and data analysts in criminal justice agencies.

This book puts in one place and in accessible form Richard Berk's most recent work on forecasts of re-offending by individuals already in criminal justice custody. Using machine learning statistical procedures trained on very large datasets, an explicit introduction of the relative costs of forecasting errors as the forecasts are constructed, and an emphasis on maximizing forecasting accuracy, the author shows how his decades of research on the topic improves forecasts of risk. Criminal justice risk forecasts anticipate the future behavior of specified individuals, rather than "predictive policing" for locations in time and space, which is a very different enterprise that uses different data different data analysis tools. The audience for this book includes graduate students and researchers in the social sciences, and data analysts in criminal justice agencies. Formal mathematics is used only as necessary or in concert with more intuitive explanations.

This book puts in one place and in accessible form Richard Berk’s most recent work on forecasts of re-offending by individuals already in criminal justice custody. Using machine learning statistical procedures trained on very large datasets, an explicit introduction of the relative costs of forecasting errors as the forecasts are constructed, and an emphasis on maximizing forecasting accuracy, the author shows how his decades of research on the topic improves forecasts of risk. Criminal justice risk forecasts anticipate the future behavior of specified individuals, rather than “predictive policing” for locations in time and space, which is a very different enterprise that uses different data different data analysis tools. The audience for this book includes graduate students and researchers in the social sciences, and data analysts in criminal justice agencies. Formal mathematics is used only as necessary or in concert with more intuitive explanations.

Imagine using an evidence-based risk management model that enables researchers and practitioners alike to analyze the spatial dynamics of crime, allocate resources, and implement custom crime and risk reduction strategies that are transparent, measurable, and effective. Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) diagnoses the spatial attractors of criminal behavior and makes accurate forecasts of where crime will occur at the microlevel. RTM informs decisions about how the combined factors that contribute to criminal behavior can be targeted, connections to crime can be monitored, spatial vulnerabilities can be assessed, and actions can be taken to reduce worst effects. As a diagnostic method, RTM offers a statistically valid way to identify vulnerable places. To learn more, visit http://www.riskterrainmodeling.com and begin using RTM with the many free tutorials and resources.

The Encyclopedia of RESEARCH METHODS IN CRIMINOLOGY & CRIMINAL JUSTICE The most comprehensive reference work on research designs and methods in criminology and criminal justice This Encyclopedia of Research Methods in Criminology and Criminal Justice offers a comprehensive survey of research methodologies and statistical techniques that are popular in criminology and criminal justice systems across the globe. With contributions from leading scholars and practitioners in the field, it offers a clear insight into the techniques that are currently in use to answer the pressing questions in criminology and criminal justice. The Encyclopedia contains essential information from a diverse pool of authors about research designs grounded in both qualitative and quantitative approaches. It includes information on popular datasets and leading resources of government statistics. In addition, the contributors cover a wide range of topics such as: the most current research on the link between guns and crime, rational choice theory, and the use of technology like geospatial mapping as a crime reduction tool. This invaluable reference work: Offers a comprehensive survey of international research designs, methods, and statistical techniques Includes contributions from leading figures in the field Contains data on criminology and criminal justice from Cambridge to Chicago Presents information on capital punishment, domestic violence, crime science, and much more Helps us to better understand, explain, and prevent crime Written for undergraduate students, graduate students, and researchers, The Encyclopedia of Research Methods in Criminology and Criminal Justice is the first reference work of its kind to offer a comprehensive review of this important topic.

Crime and Risk presents a lively discussion of risk-taking and risk strategies in the domains of crime and criminal justice. It outlines the broad theoretical issues and political approaches involved, relating risk in contemporary crime governance to risk in criminal activity. Taking a broad and discursive approach, it covers: Risk-taking and contemporary culture The application of risk-oriented developments in crime prevention and control The use of genetic and related biotechnologies to assess and react to perceived threats The conceptualization of risk in relation to race and gender Evidence and accountability Challenging yet accessible, this innovative book will appeal to upper-level undergraduates, postgraduates, researchers and academics in Criminology, Criminal Justice, and Politics.

Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, or identifying potential offenders and victims. These tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball. This guide assesses some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches for acting on predictions in an effective way.

The International library of Criminology, Criminal Justice and Penology is an important publishing initiative that brings together the most significant contemporary published journal essays in current criminology, criminal justice and penology.

Crime control has risen rapidly up the social and political agendas to become a central feature of western societies. This book is concerned with issues arising from these developments. Top criminologists from Britain, the USA and Australia explore the links between crime and risk through a range of themes, from the depiction of crime in the media to the dilemmas of policing, to the new punitiveness of criminal justice systems and the custodial warehousing of the poor and excluded.

Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Computer Sciences - Artificial Intelligence, grade: 1.3, LMU Munich (Institut für Informatik), course: Seminar und Praktikum Wissenschaftliches Arbeiten und Lehren, language: English, abstract: The development of new information systems and data mining techniques has made it possible to make predictions of the place, time, victim or perpetrator of a future crime by analyzing past crime reports. Providing that enough relevant data has been collected before, computational algorithms can be used to find patterns and forecast crimes. Underlying theories make use of criminological findings such as the increased threat to areas already targeted once or to areas close to a victimized neighborhood. The usage of computers allows for a quicker and more effective analysis as well as the discovery of patterns otherwise not humanly detectable. In order to be effective, forecasts need to be followed by concrete measures. They can be used to plan police operations and specifically deploy forces and resources in realtime. This paper describes the most important steps of the crime forecasting process.