Revised edition of International handbook of threat assessment, [2014]

This comprehensive handbook of original chapters consolidates what is known about contemporary risk assessment instruments and serves as a resource for legal, correctional, and mental health professionals. Two introductory chapters cover general issues in violence risk evaluation, while the remainder of the book offers a comprehensive discussion of specific risk assessment measures. Each chapter is prepared by the author(s) of the assessment tool under discussion and helps readers to determine whether and how to use the instruments covered in the book.

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them. The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution. "Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how." Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University "Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses." Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University "Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world." Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

AN AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE THAT EXPLAINS THE EFFECTIVENESS AND IMPLEMENTATION OF BOW TIE ANALYSIS, A QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND BARRIER MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY From a collaborative effort of the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) and the Energy Institute (EI) comes an invaluable book that puts the focus on a specific qualitative risk management methodology – bow tie barrier analysis. The book contains practical advice for conducting an effective bow tie analysis and offers guidance for creating bow tie diagrams for process safety and risk management. Bow Ties in Risk Management clearly shows how bow tie analysis and diagrams fit into an overall process safety and risk management framework. Implementing the methods outlined in this book will improve the quality of bow tie analysis and bow tie diagrams across an organization and the industry. This important guide: Explains the proven concept of bow tie barrier analysis for the preventing and mitigation of incident pathways, especially related to major accidents Shows how to avoid common pitfalls and is filled with real-world examples Explains the practical application of the bow tie method throughout an organization Reveals how to treat human and organizational factors in a sound and practical manner Includes additional material available online Although this book is written primarily for anyone involved with or responsible for managing process safety risks, this book is applicable to anyone using bow tie risk management practices in other safety and environmental or Enterprise Risk Management applications. It is designed for a wide audience, from beginners with little to no background in barrier management, to experienced professionals who may already be familiar with bow ties, their elements, the methodology, and their relation to risk management. The missions of both the CCPS and EI include developing and disseminating knowledge, skills, and good practices to protect people, property and the environment by bringing the best knowledge and practices to industry, academia, governments and the public around the world through collective wisdom, tools, training and expertise. The CCPS has been at the forefront of documenting and sharing important process safety risk assessment methodologies for more than 30 years. The EI's Technical Work Program addresses the depth and breadth of the energy sector, from fuels and fuels distribution to health and safety, sustainability and the environment. The EI program provides cost-effective, value-adding knowledge on key current and future international issues affecting those in the energy sector.

Phytosanitary risk management is essential to the global economy as well as the world's ability to feed itself. This book is about understanding the fundamentals of phytosanitary risk management for trade and non-trade issues, and how to manage those risks in an effective and efficient manner that is consistent with the international regulatory framework. Its purpose is to provide the international phytosanitary community and its principal stakeholders with a strong foundation in risk management concepts and a thorough guide to best practices.

Risk is of fundamental importance in this era of the global economy. Supply chains must into account the uncertainty of demand. Moreover, the risk of uncertain demand can cut two ways: (1) there is the risk that unexpected demand will not be met on time, and the reverse problem (2) the risk that demand is over estimated and excessive inventory costs are incurred. There are other risks in unreliable vendors, delayed shipments, natural disasters, etc. In short, there are a host of strategic, tactical and operational risks to business supply chains. Supply Chain Risk: A Handbook of Assessment, Management, and Performance will focus on how to assess, evaluate, and control these various risks.

Proven set of best practices for security risk assessment and management, explained in plain English This guidebook sets forth a systematic, proven set of best practices for security risk assessment and management of buildings and their supporting infrastructures. These practices are all designed to optimize the security of workplace environments for occupants and to protect the interests of owners and other stakeholders. The methods set forth by the authors stem from their research at Sandia National Laboratories and their practical experience working with both government and private facilities. Following the authors' step-by-step methodology for performing a complete risk assessment, you learn to: Identify regional and site-specific threats that are likely and credible Evaluate the consequences of these threats, including loss of life and property, economic impact, as well as damage to symbolic value and public confidence Assess the effectiveness of physical and cyber security systems and determine site-specific vulnerabilities in the security system The authors further provide you with the analytical tools needed to determine whether to accept a calculated estimate of risk or to reduce the estimated risk to a level that meets your particular security needs. You then learn to implement a risk-reduction program through proven methods to upgrade security to protect against a malicious act and/or mitigate the consequences of the act. This comprehensive risk assessment and management approach has been used by various organizations, including the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Bonneville Power Administration, and numerous private corporations, to assess and manage security risk at their national infrastructure facilities. With its plain-English presentation coupled with step-by-step procedures, flowcharts, worksheets, and checklists, you can easily implement the same proven approach and methods for your organization or clients. Additional forms and resources are available online at www.wiley.com/go/securityrisk.

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.