This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can be learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject to sharp disagreements. Building on the foundation laid in the author's Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (Harvard, 1995), the book's fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population. Part III studies prediction of choice behavior. Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of probability theory.

System and models. Methods. User's choice. Some concepts from probability theory. Some statistical techniques for linear regressions.

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying neural networks to dynamic systems identification (modelling), prediction and control. Neural networks are computing systems characterised by the ability to learn from examples rather than having to be programmed in a conventional sense. Their use enables the behaviour of complex systems to be modelled and predicted and accurate control to be achieved through training, without a priori information about the systems' structures or parameters. This book describes examples of applications of neural networks In modelling, prediction and control. The topics covered include identification of general linear and non-linear processes, forecasting of river levels, stock market prices and currency exchange rates, and control of a time-delayed plant and a two-joint robot. These applications employ the major types of neural networks and learning algorithms. The neural network types considered in detail are the muhilayer perceptron (MLP), the Elman and Jordan networks and the Group-Method-of-Data-Handling (GMDH) network. In addition, cerebellar-model-articulation-controller (CMAC) networks and neuromorphic fuzzy logic systems are also presented. The main learning algorithm adopted in the applications is the standard backpropagation (BP) algorithm. Widrow-Hoff learning, dynamic BP and evolutionary learning are also described.

This book provides a comprehensive and systematic framework for developing, describing, and analyzing such recursive algorithms.

The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detection. As practitioners and researchers around the world apply and adapt the framework, this edited volume brings together these bodies of work, providing a springboard for further research as well as a handbook for application in real-world problems. - Understand the theoretical foundations of this important framework that can provide a reliable measure of confidence with predictions in machine learning - Be able to apply this framework to real-world problems in different machine learning settings, including classification, regression, and clustering - Learn effective ways of adapting the framework to newer problem settings, such as active learning, model selection, or change detection

This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.

Methods of signal analysis represent a broad research topic with applications in many disciplines, including engineering, technology, biomedicine, seismography, eco nometrics, and many others based upon the processing of observed variables. Even though these applications are widely different, the mathematical background be hind them is similar and includes the use of the discrete Fourier transform and z-transform for signal analysis, and both linear and non-linear methods for signal identification, modelling, prediction, segmentation, and classification. These meth ods are in many cases closely related to optimization problems, statistical methods, and artificial neural networks. This book incorporates a collection of research papers based upon selected contri butions presented at the First European Conference on Signal Analysis and Predic tion (ECSAP-97) in Prague, Czech Republic, held June 24-27, 1997 at the Strahov Monastery. Even though the Conference was intended as a European Conference, at first initiated by the European Association for Signal Processing (EURASIP), it was very gratifying that it also drew significant support from other important scientific societies, including the lEE, Signal Processing Society of IEEE, and the Acoustical Society of America. The organizing committee was pleased that the re sponse from the academic community to participate at this Conference was very large; 128 summaries written by 242 authors from 36 countries were received. In addition, the Conference qualified under the Continuing Professional Development Scheme to provide PD units for participants and contributors.

The field's leading text, now completely updated. Modeling dynamical systems — theory, methodology, and applications. Lennart Ljung's System Identification: Theory for the User is a complete, coherent description of the theory, methodology, and practice of System Identification. This completely revised Second Edition introduces subspace methods, methods that utilize frequency domain data, and general non-linear black box methods, including neural networks and neuro-fuzzy modeling. The book contains many new computer-based examples designed for Ljung's market-leading software, System Identification Toolbox for MATLAB. Ljung combines careful mathematics, a practical understanding of real-world applications, and extensive exercises. He introduces both black-box and tailor-made models of linear as well as non-linear systems, and he describes principles, properties, and algorithms for a variety of identification techniques: Nonparametric time-domain and frequency-domain methods. Parameter estimation methods in a general prediction error setting. Frequency domain data and frequency domain interpretations. Asymptotic analysis of parameter estimates. Linear regressions, iterative search methods, and other ways to compute estimates. Recursive (adaptive) estimation techniques. Ljung also presents detailed coverage of the key issues that can make or break system identification projects, such as defining objectives, designing experiments, controlling the bias distribution of transfer-function estimates, and carefully validating the resulting models. The first edition of System Identification has been the field's most widely cited reference for over a decade. This new edition will be the new text of choice for anyone concerned with system identification theory and practice.