We propose a mean-reverting stochastic process for the market beta. In a simulation study, the proposed model generates significantly more precise beta estimates than GARCH betas, betas conditioned on aggregate or firm-level variables, and rolling-regression betas, even when the true betas are generated based on these competing specifications. Our model significantly improves out-of-sample hedging effectiveness. In asset-pricing tests, our model provides substantially stronger support for the conditional CAPM relative to competing beta models and helps resolve asset-pricing anomalies such as the size, book-to-market, and idiosyncratic volatility effects in the cross-section of stock returns.

This is the first book designed to introduce Bayesian inference procedures for stochastic processes. There are clear advantages to the Bayesian approach (including the optimal use of prior information). Initially, the book begins with a brief review of Bayesian inference and uses many examples relevant to the analysis of stochastic processes, including the four major types, namely those with discrete time and discrete state space and continuous time and continuous state space. The elements necessary to understanding stochastic processes are then introduced, followed by chapters devoted to the Bayesian analysis of such processes. It is important that a chapter devoted to the fundamental concepts in stochastic processes is included. Bayesian inference (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for discrete time Markov chains, for Markov jump processes, for normal processes (e.g. Brownian motion and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process), for traditional time series, and, lastly, for point and spatial processes are described in detail. Heavy emphasis is placed on many examples taken from biology and other scientific disciplines. In order analyses of stochastic processes, it will use R and WinBUGS. Features: Uses the Bayesian approach to make statistical Inferences about stochastic processes The R package is used to simulate realizations from different types of processes Based on realizations from stochastic processes, the WinBUGS package will provide the Bayesian analysis (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for the unknown parameters of stochastic processes To illustrate the Bayesian inference, many examples taken from biology, economics, and astronomy will reinforce the basic concepts of the subject A practical approach is implemented by considering realistic examples of interest to the scientific community WinBUGS and R code are provided in the text, allowing the reader to easily verify the results of the inferential procedures found in the many examples of the book Readers with a good background in two areas, probability theory and statistical inference, should be able to master the essential ideas of this book.

Bayesian analysis of complex models based on stochastic processes has in recent years become a growing area. This book provides a unified treatment of Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, covering the main classes of stochastic processing including modeling, computational, inference, forecasting, decision making and important applied models. Key features: Explores Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, providing a unified treatment. Provides a thorough introduction for research students. Computational tools to deal with complex problems are illustrated along with real life case studies Looks at inference, prediction and decision making. Researchers, graduate and advanced undergraduate students interested in stochastic processes in fields such as statistics, operations research (OR), engineering, finance, economics, computer science and Bayesian analysis will benefit from reading this book. With numerous applications included, practitioners of OR, stochastic modelling and applied statistics will also find this book useful.

"...this edition is useful and effective in teaching Bayesian inference at both elementary and intermediate levels. It is a well-written book on elementary Bayesian inference, and the material is easily accessible. It is both concise and timely, and provides a good collection of overviews and reviews of important tools used in Bayesian statistical methods." There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features: Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.

Research in Bayesian analysis and statistical decision theory is rapidly expanding and diversifying, making it increasingly more difficult for any single researcher to stay up to date on all current research frontiers. This book provides a review of current research challenges and opportunities. While the book can not exhaustively cover all current research areas, it does include some exemplary discussion of most research frontiers. Topics include objective Bayesian inference, shrinkage estimation and other decision based estimation, model selection and testing, nonparametric Bayes, the interface of Bayesian and frequentist inference, data mining and machine learning, methods for categorical and spatio-temporal data analysis and posterior simulation methods. Several major application areas are covered: computer models, Bayesian clinical trial design, epidemiology, phylogenetics, bioinformatics, climate modeling and applications in political science, finance and marketing. As a review of current research in Bayesian analysis the book presents a balance between theory and applications. The lack of a clear demarcation between theoretical and applied research is a reflection of the highly interdisciplinary and often applied nature of research in Bayesian statistics. The book is intended as an update for researchers in Bayesian statistics, including non-statisticians who make use of Bayesian inference to address substantive research questions in other fields. It would also be useful for graduate students and research scholars in statistics or biostatistics who wish to acquaint themselves with current research frontiers.

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics and stochastic processes, to real applications in economics, reliability and hydrology. Also the question is raised if it is necessary to develop new techniques to model and analyze fuzzy observations in samples. The articles are arranged in alphabetical order according to the family name of the first author of each paper to avoid a hierarchical ordering of importance of the different topics. Readers interested in special topics can use the index at the end of the book as guide.

Presents an introduction to Bayesian statistics, presents an emphasis on Bayesian methods (prior and posterior), Bayes estimation, prediction, MCMC,Bayesian regression, and Bayesian analysis of statistical modelsof dependence, and features a focus on copulas for risk management Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence emphasizes the applications of Bayesian analysis to copula modeling and equips readers with the tools needed to implement the procedures of Bayesian estimation in copula models of dependence. This book is structured in two parts: the first four chapters serve as a general introduction to Bayesian statistics with a clear emphasis on parametric estimation and the following four chapters stress statistical models of dependence with a focus of copulas. A review of the main concepts is discussed along with the basics of Bayesian statistics including prior information and experimental data, prior and posterior distributions, with an emphasis on Bayesian parametric estimation. The basic mathematical background of both Markov chains and Monte Carlo integration and simulation is also provided. The authors discuss statistical models of dependence with a focus on copulas and present a brief survey of pre-copula dependence models. The main definitions and notations of copula models are summarized followed by discussions of real-world cases that address particular risk management problems. In addition, this book includes: • Practical examples of copulas in use including within the Basel Accord II documents that regulate the world banking system as well as examples of Bayesian methods within current FDA recommendations • Step-by-step procedures of multivariate data analysis and copula modeling, allowing readers to gain insight for their own applied research and studies • Separate reference lists within each chapter and end-of-the-chapter exercises within Chapters 2 through 8 • A companion website containing appendices: data files and demo files in Microsoft® Office Excel®, basic code in R, and selected exercise solutions Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence is a reference and resource for statisticians who need to learn formal Bayesian analysis as well as professionals within analytical and risk management departments of banks and insurance companies who are involved in quantitative analysis and forecasting. This book can also be used as a textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in Bayesian statistics and analysis. ARKADY SHEMYAKIN, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Director of the Statistics Program at the University of St. Thomas. A member of the American Statistical Association and the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Dr. Shemyakin's research interests include informationtheory, Bayesian methods of parametric estimation, and copula models in actuarial mathematics, finance, and engineering. ALEXANDER KNIAZEV, PhD, is Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Mathematics at Astrakhan State University in Russia. Dr. Kniazev's research interests include representation theory of Lie algebras and finite groups, mathematical statistics, econometrics, and financial mathematics.

Bayesian analysis is one of the important tools for statistical modelling and inference. Bayesian frameworks and methods have been successfully applied to solve practical problems in reliability and survival analysis, which have a wide range of real world applications in medical and biological sciences, social and economic sciences, and engineering. In the past few decades, significant developments of Bayesian inference have been made by many researchers, and advancements in computational technology and computer performance has laid the groundwork for new opportunities in Bayesian computation for practitioners. Because these theoretical and technological developments introduce new questions and challenges, and increase the complexity of the Bayesian framework, this book brings together experts engaged in groundbreaking research on Bayesian inference and computation to discuss important issues, with emphasis on applications to reliability and survival analysis. Topics covered are timely and have the potential to influence the interacting worlds of biostatistics, engineering, medical sciences, statistics, and more. The included chapters present current methods, theories, and applications in the diverse area of biostatistical analysis. The volume as a whole serves as reference in driving quality global health research.

In this new edition the author has added substantial material on Bayesian analysis, including lengthy new sections on such important topics as empirical and hierarchical Bayes analysis, Bayesian calculation, Bayesian communication, and group decision making. With these changes, the book can be used as a self-contained introduction to Bayesian analysis. In addition, much of the decision-theoretic portion of the text was updated, including new sections covering such modern topics as minimax multivariate (Stein) estimation.

Bayesian analysis of complex models based on stochastic processes has in recent years become a growing area. This book provides a unified treatment of Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, covering the main classes of stochastic processing including modeling, computational, inference, forecasting, decision making and important applied models. Key features: Explores Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, providing a unified treatment. Provides a thorough introduction for research students. Computational tools to deal with complex problems are illustrated along with real life case studies Looks at inference, prediction and decision making. Researchers, graduate and advanced undergraduate students interested in stochastic processes in fields such as statistics, operations research (OR), engineering, finance, economics, computer science and Bayesian analysis will benefit from reading this book. With numerous applications included, practitioners of OR, stochastic modelling and applied statistics will also find this book useful.