Abstract: Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great Depression generates a large baby bust -- between 38% and 63% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1930s -- which is subsequently followed by a baby boom -- between 53% and 92% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1950s

Though the world's population continues to grow, total fertility rates are dropping below replacement level in many parts of the world. The Baby Bust, a landmark book of essays by demographic, economic, and political science experts, examines the global birth dearth and its causes, implications, and policy options. Focusing in large part on the United States, this book also includes data from Europe and Japan and makes important comparisons between the three regions. It concludes with suggestions for making America's future sound and prosperous, through the regularization and legalization of appropriate levels of immigration; enhancing governmental efforts to increase productivity; and finally, ending the present waste of so many underutilized members of the workforce, particularly minorities and the poor. Visit our website for sample chapters!

What caused the baby boom? And, can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years? The hypothesis is that: (i) The secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children. (ii) The baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century. This lowered the cost of having children. A model is developed in an attempt to account, quantitatively, for both the baby boom and bust.

The first statistical biography of a generation that no marketer will want to be without. Today's teenagers are interested in the environment, good jobs, and good times. They also spend $55 billion of their parents' income on clothes, CDs, sports gear and electronics. Teenage "busters" comprise 17% of the U.S. population--a segment larger than seniors.