The Athens Conference on Applied Probability and Time Series in 1995 brought together researchers from across the world. The published papers appear in two volumes. Volume I includes papers on applied probability in Honor of J.M. Gani. The topics include probability and probabilistic methods in recursive algorithms and stochastic models, Markov and other stochastic models such as Markov chains, branching processes and semi-Markov systems, biomathematical and genetic models, epidemilogical models including S-I-R (Susceptible-Infective-Removal), household and AIDS epidemics, financial models for option pricing and optimization problems, random walks, queues and their waiting times, and spatial models for earthquakes and inference on spatial models.

The Athens Conference on Applied Probability and Time Series in 1995 brought together researchers from across the world. The published papers appear in two volumes. Volume II presents papers on time series analysis, many of which were contributed to a meeting in March 1995 partly in honour of E.J. Hannan. The initial paper by P.M. Robinson discusses Ted Hannan's researches and their influence on current work in time series analysis. Other papers discuss methods for finite parameter Gaussian models, time series with infinite variance or stable marginal distribution, frequency domain methods, long range dependent processes, nonstationary processes, and nonlinear time series. The methods presented can be applied in a number of fields such as statistics, applied mathematics, engineering, economics and ecology. The papers include many of the topics of current interest in time series analysis and will be of interest to a wide range of researchers.

A compilation of original articles by Bayesian experts, this volume presents perspectives on recent developments on nonparametric and semiparametric methods in Bayesian statistics. The articles discuss how to conceptualize and develop Bayesian models using rich classes of nonparametric and semiparametric methods, how to use modern computational tools to summarize inferences, and how to apply these methodologies through the analysis of case studies.

Here, the authors explain the basic ideas so as to generate interest in modern problems of experimental design. The topics discussed include designs for inference based on nonlinear models, designs for models with random parameters and stochastic processes, designs for model discrimination and incorrectly specified (contaminated) models, as well as examples of designs in functional spaces. Since the authors avoid technical details, the book assumes only a moderate background in calculus, matrix algebra, and statistics. However, at many places, hints are given as to how readers may enhance and adopt the basic ideas for advanced problems or applications. This allows the book to be used for courses at different levels, as well as serving as a useful reference for graduate students and researchers in statistics and engineering.

A modern and accessible guide to the analysis of introductory time series data Featuring an organized and self-contained guide, Time Series Analysis provides a broad introduction to the most fundamental methodologies and techniques of time series analysis. The book focuses on the treatment of univariate time series by illustrating a number of well-known models such as ARMA and ARIMA. Providing contemporary coverage, the book features several useful and newlydeveloped techniques such as weak and strong dependence, Bayesian methods, non-Gaussian data, local stationarity, missing values and outliers, and threshold models. Time Series Analysis includes practical applications of time series methods throughout, as well as: Real-world examples and exercise sets that allow readers to practice the presented methods and techniques Numerous detailed analyses of computational aspects related to the implementation of methodologies including algorithm efficiency, arithmetic complexity, and process time End-of-chapter proposed problems and bibliographical notes to deepen readers’ knowledge of the presented material Appendices that contain details on fundamental concepts and select solutions of the problems implemented throughout A companion website with additional data fi les and computer codes Time Series Analysis is an excellent textbook for undergraduate and beginning graduate-level courses in time series as well as a supplement for students in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics. The book is also a useful reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, and finance. Wilfredo Palma, PhD, is Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. He has published several refereed articles and has received over a dozen academic honors and awards. His research interests include time series analysis, prediction theory, state space systems, linear models, and econometrics. He is the author of Long-Memory Time Series: Theory and Methods, also published by Wiley.

Long memory time series are characterized by a strong dependence between distant events.

Provides a simple exposition of the basic time series material, and insights into underlying technical aspects and methods of proof Long memory time series are characterized by a strong dependence between distant events. This book introduces readers to the theory and foundations of univariate time series analysis with a focus on long memory and fractional integration, which are embedded into the general framework. It presents the general theory of time series, including some issues that are not treated in other books on time series, such as ergodicity, persistence versus memory, asymptotic properties of the periodogram, and Whittle estimation. Further chapters address the general functional central limit theory, parametric and semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter, and locally optimal tests. Intuitive and easy to read, Time Series Analysis with Long Memory in View offers chapters that cover: Stationary Processes; Moving Averages and Linear Processes; Frequency Domain Analysis; Differencing and Integration; Fractionally Integrated Processes; Sample Means; Parametric Estimators; Semiparametric Estimators; and Testing. It also discusses further topics. This book: Offers beginning-of-chapter examples as well as end-of-chapter technical arguments and proofs Contains many new results on long memory processes which have not appeared in previous and existing textbooks Takes a basic mathematics (Calculus) approach to the topic of time series analysis with long memory Contains 25 illustrative figures as well as lists of notations and acronyms Time Series Analysis with Long Memory in View is an ideal text for first year PhD students, researchers, and practitioners in statistics, econometrics, and any application area that uses time series over a long period. It would also benefit researchers, undergraduates, and practitioners in those areas who require a rigorous introduction to time series analysis.

This book consists of three parts: Part One is composed of two introductory chapters. The first chapter provides an instrumental varible interpretation of the state space time series algorithm originally proposed by Aoki (1983), and gives an introductory account for incorporating exogenous signals in state space models. The second chapter, by Havenner, gives practical guidance in apply ing this algorithm by one of the most experienced practitioners of the method. Havenner begins by summarizing six reasons state space methods are advanta geous, and then walks the reader through construction and evaluation of a state space model for four monthly macroeconomic series: industrial production in dex, consumer price index, six month commercial paper rate, and money stock (Ml). To single out one of the several important insights in modeling that he shares with the reader, he discusses in Section 2ii the effects of sampling er rors and model misspecification on successful modeling efforts. He argues that model misspecification is an important amplifier of the effects of sampling error that may cause symplectic matrices to have complex unit roots, a theoretical impossibility. Correct model specifications increase efficiency of estimators and often eliminate this finite sample problem. This is an important insight into the positive realness of covariance matrices; positivity has been emphasized by system engineers to the exclusion of other methods of reducing sampling error and alleviating what is simply a finite sample problem. The second and third parts collect papers that describe specific applications.

The papers in this volume discuss important methodological advances in several important areas, including multivariate failure time data and interval censored data. The book will be an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in biostatistics, medical research, and the health sciences.

This book has many applications to stochastic comparison problems in economics and other fields. It covers theory of lift zonoids and demonstrates its usefulness in multivariate analysis, an informal introduction to basic ideas, and a comprehensive investigation into the theory, as well as various applications of the lift zonoid approach and may be separately studied. Readers are assumed to have a firm grounding in probability at the graduate level.