This book consists of three parts: Part One is composed of two introductory chapters. The first chapter provides an instrumental varible interpretation of the state space time series algorithm originally proposed by Aoki (1983), and gives an introductory account for incorporating exogenous signals in state space models. The second chapter, by Havenner, gives practical guidance in apply ing this algorithm by one of the most experienced practitioners of the method. Havenner begins by summarizing six reasons state space methods are advanta geous, and then walks the reader through construction and evaluation of a state space model for four monthly macroeconomic series: industrial production in dex, consumer price index, six month commercial paper rate, and money stock (Ml). To single out one of the several important insights in modeling that he shares with the reader, he discusses in Section 2ii the effects of sampling er rors and model misspecification on successful modeling efforts. He argues that model misspecification is an important amplifier of the effects of sampling error that may cause symplectic matrices to have complex unit roots, a theoretical impossibility. Correct model specifications increase efficiency of estimators and often eliminate this finite sample problem. This is an important insight into the positive realness of covariance matrices; positivity has been emphasized by system engineers to the exclusion of other methods of reducing sampling error and alleviating what is simply a finite sample problem. The second and third parts collect papers that describe specific applications.

Robust Bayesian analysis aims at overcoming the traditional objection to Bayesian analysis of its dependence on subjective inputs, mainly the prior and the loss. Its purpose is the determination of the impact of the inputs to a Bayesian analysis (the prior, the loss and the model) on its output when the inputs range in certain classes. If the impact is considerable, there is sensitivity and we should attempt to further refine the information the incumbent classes available, perhaps through additional constraints on and/ or obtaining additional data; if the impact is not important, robustness holds and no further analysis and refinement would be required. Robust Bayesian analysis has been widely accepted by Bayesian statisticians; for a while it was even a main research topic in the field. However, to a great extent, their impact is yet to be seen in applied settings. This volume, therefore, presents an overview of the current state of robust Bayesian methods and their applications and identifies topics of further in terest in the area. The papers in the volume are divided into nine parts covering the main aspects of the field. The first one provides an overview of Bayesian robustness at a non-technical level. The paper in Part II con cerns foundational aspects and describes decision-theoretical axiomatisa tions leading to the robust Bayesian paradigm, motivating reasons for which robust analysis is practically unavoidable within Bayesian analysis.

Senior probabilists from around the world with widely differing specialities gave their visions of the state of their specialty, why they think it is important, and how they think it will develop in the new millenium. The volume includes papers given at a symposium at Columbia University in 1995, but papers from others not at the meeting were added to broaden the coverage of areas. All papers were refereed.

This monograph proposes several approaches to convergence monitoring for MCMC algorithms which are centered on the theme of discrete Markov chains. After a short introduction to MCMC methods, including recent developments like perfect simulation and Langevin Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, and to the current convergence diagnostics, the contributors present the theoretical basis for a study of MCMC convergence using discrete Markov chains and their specificities. The contributors stress in particular that this study applies in a wide generality, starting with latent variable models like mixtures, then extending the scope to chains with renewal properties, and concluding with a general Markov chain. They then relate the different connections with discrete or finite Markov chains with practical convergence diagnostics which are either graphical plots (allocation map, divergence graph, variance stabilizing, normality plot), stopping rules (normality, stationarity, stability tests), or confidence bounds (divergence, asymptotic variance, normality). Most of the quantitative tools take advantage of manageable versions of the CLT. The different methods proposed here are first evaluated on a set of benchmark examples and then studied on three full scale realistic applications, along with the standard convergence diagnostics: A hidden Markov modelling of DNA sequences, including a perfect simulation implementation, a latent stage modelling of the dynamics of HIV infection, and a modelling of hospitalization duration by exponential mixtures. The monograph is the outcome of a monthly research seminar held at CREST, Paris, since 1995. The seminar involved the contributors to this monograph and was led by Christian P. Robert, Head of the Satistics Laboratory at CREST and Professor of Statistics at the University of Rouen since 1992.

This book has many applications to stochastic comparison problems in economics and other fields. It covers theory of lift zonoids and demonstrates its usefulness in multivariate analysis, an informal introduction to basic ideas, and a comprehensive investigation into the theory, as well as various applications of the lift zonoid approach and may be separately studied. Readers are assumed to have a firm grounding in probability at the graduate level.

This book covers a wide range of topics in both discrete and continuous optimal designs. The topics discussed include designs for regression models, covariates models, models with trend effects, and models with competition effects. The prerequisites are a basic course in the design and analysis of experiments and some familiarity with the concepts of optimality criteria.

The study of copulas and their role in statistics is a new but vigorously growing field. In this book the student or practitioner of statistics and probability will find discussions of the fundamental properties of copulas and some of their primary applications. The applications include the study of dependence and measures of association, and the construction of families of bivariate distributions.

This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the design of blocked and split-plot experiments. The optimal design approach advocated in the book will help applied statisticians from industry, medicine, agriculture, chemistry and many other fields of study in setting up tailor-made experiments. The book also contains a theoretical background, a thorough review of the recent work in the area of blocked and split-plot experiments, and a number of interesting theoretical results.

This volume contains invited case studies with the accompanying discussion as well as contributed papers selected by a refereeing process of 6th Workshop on Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics was held at the Carnegie Mellon University in October, 2001.

The aim of this book is to make a comprehensive review on some of the research topics in the area of survey sampling which has not been covered in any book yet. The proposed book aims at making a comprehensive review of applications of Bayes procedures, Empirical Bayes procedures and their ramifications (like linear Bayes estimation, restricted Bayes least square prediction, constrained Bayes estimation, Bayesian robustness) in making inference from a finite population sampling. Parimal Mukhopadhyay is Professor at the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Calcutta. He received his Ph.D. degree in Statistics from the University of Calcutta in 1977. He also served as a faculty member in the University of Ife, Nigeria, Moi University, Kenya, University of South Pacific, Fiji Islands and held visiting positions at University of Montreal, University of Windsor, Stockholm University, University of Western Australia, etc. He has to his credit more than fifty research papers in Survey Sampling, some co-authored, three text books on Statistics and three research monographs in Survey Sampling. He is a member of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and an elected member of the International Statistical Institute.