"Vietnam's gains in poverty reduction between 1992 and 1998 were striking, and the country's impressive growth has been fairly broad-based. Households that have benefited most are well-educated, urban, white-collar households, while agricultural workers, ethnic minorities, and those residing in poorer regions have progressed least"--Cover.

Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise gross domestic product per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend on individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is geographic targeting that shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-computable general equilibrium model with small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 percent to 14.3 percent. Full liberalization will benefit the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

This book examines how the interaction between political and economic factors under Doi Moi has shaped Vietnam’s China policy and bilateral relations since the late 1980s. After providing a historical background, the book examines the conflicting effects that Doi Moi has generated on bilateral relations. It demonstrates that Vietnam’s economic considerations following the adoption of Doi Moi contributed decidedly to the Sino-Vietnamese normalization in 1991 as well as the continuous improvements in bilateral ties ever since. At the same time, Vietnam’s economic activities in the South China Sea and China’s responses have intensified bilateral rivalry and put their ties under considerable strains. The book goes on to argue that Doi Moi has indeed brought Vietnam newfound opportunities to develop a multi-level omni-directional hedging strategy against China. Finally, the book concludes by looking at the prospects of democratization in both countries and assessing the future trajectory of their relations under such circumstances. As the most comprehensive and up-to-date survey of Vietnam’s relations with China over the past thirty years, the book is a useful reference source for academics, policymakers, students, and anyone interested in contemporary Vietnam foreign policy in general and Vietnam–China relations in particular.

Thirty years of Ä?ổi Má»›i (economic renovation) reforms have catapulted Vietnam from the ranks of the world’s poorest countries to one of its great development success stories. Critical ingredients have been visionary leaders, a sense of shared societal purpose, and a focus on the future. Starting in the late 1980s, these elements were successfully fused with the embrace of markets and the global economy. Economic growth since then has been rapid, stable, and inclusive, translating into strong welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. But three decades of success from reforms raises expectations for the future, as aptly captured in the Vietnamese constitution, which sets the goal of “a prosperous people and a strong, democratic, equitable, and civilized country.†? There is a firm aspiration that by 2035, Vietnam will be a modern and industrialized nation moving toward becoming a prosperous, creative, equitable, and democratic society. The Vietnam 2035 report, a joint undertaking of the Government of Vietnam and the World Bank Group, seeks to better comprehend the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. It shows that the country’s aspirations and the supporting policy and institutional agenda stand on three pillars: balancing economic prosperity with environmental sustainability; promoting equity and social inclusion to develop a harmonious middle- class society; and enhancing the capacity and accountability of the state to establish a rule of law state and a democratic society. Vietnam 2035 further argues that the rapid growth needed to achieve the bold aspirations will be sustained only if it stands on faster productivity growth and reflects the costs of environmental degradation. Productivity growth, in turn, will benefit from measures to enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises, scale up the benefits of urban agglomeration, and build national technological and innovative capacity. Maintaining the record on equity and social inclusion will require lifting marginalized groups and delivering services to an aging and urbanizing middle-class society. And to fulfill the country’s aspirations, the institutions of governance will need to become modern, transparent, and fully rooted in the rule of law.

In the United States, discussion of the Vietnam War has tended to focus on the U.S. role, U.S. strategy, U.S. diplomacy, and the war's effects on American society. The tendency to hold U.S. domestic politics responsible for the war's outcome implies that events in Indochina were nothing more than a backdrop for an essentially American drama. In contrast, The Second Indochina War emphasizes the Vietnamese dimensions of a conflict in which all of Indochina—Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia—was treated as a single strategic unit. The author contends that only from this perspective is it clear how the war began, why its scale outstripped U.S. expectations, and why the Communists prevailed. Professor Turley gives a balanced account of events in, and views from, Washington, Saigon, and Hanoi. Drawing on years of research in primary documents and interviews conducted by the author in Saigon and Hanoi, the book focuses on the experience, strategies, leadership, and internal politics of the revolutionary side. To set the scene, the author considers the legacies of colonial rule in Indochina and the origins of the U.S. commitment there. He recounts the development of the Saigon regime and explains the bases of revolution in the South, the key communist decisions, and the North's response to bombing. The major military campaigns are clearly described and analyzed, as are the negotiations that led to the Paris Agreement and its aftermath. Vietnam is the central focus, but the reader's attention is also drawn to the strategies and events that unified the conflict in all three countries of Indochina into a single war. Concise yet comprehensive, The Second Indochina War is suitable for the general reader, as a text for courses on the war, or as supplementary reading for courses on Southeast Asian politics, U.S. foreign policy, revolutionary conflict, and Asian regional security. An annotated bibliography and chronology enhance its usefulness. Original material on communist internal debates and military campaigns, based on primary documents in Vietnamese, will also make this book a valuable resource for scholars of Southeast Asia.

After a precipitate reunification (1975), the Hanoi leadership imposed upon the South the Stalinist-Maoist strategy of economic development which had been until then applied in the North. This "Northernization" resulted in an economic crisis for the whole country during the last years of the Second Five-Year Plan. Despite some partial reforms, the country was again plunged into a more serious economic and financial crisis at the end of the Third Five-Year Plan, particularly after the ill-conceived monetary reform in September 1985. At the time of its Sixth National Congress (December 1986) the Party's new leadership advocated a strategic shift in its overall economic policy under the banner of Doi Moi (Renovation).

These previously unpublished papers by leading American and Vietnamese economists analyze the dramatic transformation of Vietnam's economy during the 1990s and its prospects for the future. The three main sections of the book discuss Vietnam's turbulent history, recent economic reforms, and the country's emerging role in the world economy and geopolitics. The contributors examine a myriad of issues, including specific reforms in agriculture, banking, and tax policy, as well as the attempts to create a business-oriented legal infrastructure, the development of foreign trade and a viable balance of payments, and U.S. policy reactions to Vietnam's rapid development in the last decade.

Abstract: Cox uses date from the 1992-93 and 1997-98 Vietnam Living Standards Survey (VLSS) to describe patterns of money transfers between households. Rapid economic growth during the 1990s did little to diminish the importance of private transfers in Vietnam. Private transfers are large and widespread in both surveys, and are much larger than public transfers. Private transfers appear to function like means-tested public transfers, flowing from better-off to worse-off households and providing old age support in retirement. Panel evidence suggests some hysteresis in private transfer patterns, but many households also changed from recipients to givers and vice versa between surveys. Changes in private transfers appear responsive to changes in household pre-transfer income, demographic changes, and life-course events. Transfer inflows rise upon retirement and widowhood, for example, and are positively associated with increases in health expenditures. It also appears that private transfer inflows increased for households affected by Typhoon Linda, which devastated Vietnam's southernmost provinces in late 1997. This paper is a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Economic Growth and Household Welfare: Policy Lessons from Vietnam. The author may be contacted at donald.cox@@bc.edu.

This book uses Alan Winters’ analytical framework to investigate the effects of trade liberalisation on economic growth and poverty in Vietnam. The country launched a programme of economic and trade reforms, known as Doi Moi, in the mid-1980s which placed the economy on a transitional path from central planning to a market economy. Since then Vietnam has attained a number of remarkable achievements in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction. Although some formidable problems (such as inequality and inflation) remain, it is apparent that trade liberalisation has been associated with a big reduction in poverty. The analysis in the book focuses on the microeconomic (household) level, and there is an emphasis on tracing the effects of trade liberalisation through the four separate channels identified by Winters. Such in-depth and micro-level analyses yield new insights that support important policy lessons and recommendations for Vietnam in particular and, more generally, for similar developing countries.