Unmaking the West
Author | : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock |
Publisher | : University of Michigan Press |
Total Pages | : 438 |
Release | : 2006 |
ISBN-10 | : 0472031430 |
ISBN-13 | : 9780472031436 |
Rating | : 4/5 (30 Downloads) |
9788472457904.txt
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Author | : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock |
Publisher | : University of Michigan Press |
Total Pages | : 438 |
Release | : 2006 |
ISBN-10 | : 0472031430 |
ISBN-13 | : 9780472031436 |
Rating | : 4/5 (30 Downloads) |
9788472457904.txt
Author | : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 438 |
Release | : 2006 |
ISBN-10 | : STANFORD:36105114434637 |
ISBN-13 | : |
Rating | : 4/5 (37 Downloads) |
9788472457904.txt
Author | : Jeremy Salt |
Publisher | : Univ of California Press |
Total Pages | : 480 |
Release | : 2008 |
ISBN-10 | : 9780520261709 |
ISBN-13 | : 0520261704 |
Rating | : 4/5 (09 Downloads) |
Politics & government.
Author | : Philip E. Tetlock |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 362 |
Release | : 1996-09-08 |
ISBN-10 | : 0691027919 |
ISBN-13 | : 9780691027913 |
Rating | : 4/5 (19 Downloads) |
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Author | : James C. Murphy |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2022-07 |
ISBN-10 | : 0522878369 |
ISBN-13 | : 9780522878363 |
Rating | : 4/5 (69 Downloads) |
For some years, Melbourne's aborted East-West Link created intense picketing and protests, multiple court challenges, breathless media coverage and bitter politicking. The Link brought the downfall of the single-term Baillieu-Napthine Liberal government; its cancellation cost the state half a billion dollars; and it lives on in infamy, a byword in the Australian lexicon for political brinkmanship, waste and politicisation of infrastructure. In The Making and Unmaking of East-West Link, James C Murphy explores the saga from competing vantage points, detailing the layers of politics and intrigue that saturate infrastructure policymaking in Australia.
Author | : Richard Ned Lebow |
Publisher | : Macmillan |
Total Pages | : 258 |
Release | : 2014-01-07 |
ISBN-10 | : 9781137278531 |
ISBN-13 | : 1137278536 |
Rating | : 4/5 (31 Downloads) |
Examining the chain of events that led to the Great War and what could reasonably have been done differently to avoid it, an acclaimed political psychologist creates plausible worlds, some better, some worse, that might have developed.
Author | : Christina Hunter |
Publisher | : Christian Faith Publishing, Inc. |
Total Pages | : 302 |
Release | : 2021-07-05 |
ISBN-10 | : 9781098081058 |
ISBN-13 | : 1098081056 |
Rating | : 4/5 (58 Downloads) |
Christina Hunter's oldest daughter and a basketball star, Sabria Hunter answered her call to report to West Point Military Academy to become an officer in the US Army and play Division 1 basketball in the summer of 2019. Following this experience, Christina, whom the readers will come to know as Tina, felt urged to write a book. Being hard-pressed as a working mom of six, she never thought this could ever be possible, so she pushed off the idea. The urge came again, and she told God she was willing to write the book but wanted a solid sign to make sure it was him that was asking her to take on this feat. It was on a random trip to Barnes and Noble that a miracle took place. As she was found leafing through a book, Tina was approached by a complete stranger who, she came to find out, was an author himself, who began asking her about her life and told her she needed to write a book about it and he had tips that could help her. She was astonished with the instruction God gave her through this man and vowed to keep her promise to God by telling the world of his love for her and her family. This is a riveting story of a broken girl whom God put back together again. It is a story about breaking the chains of self-doubt and learning to face fear while maneuvering through storms in life when there seems to be no hope in the fight. Raising West Point: The Unmasking of a Hero is just the beginning of an extraordinary life God made out of such an ordinary girl and then was faithful in doing amazing works in her kids' lives especially in the world of sports and school. If you are searching for love, peace, and happiness in your life, this is a must-read! If you want to raise kids to be more than survivors of this life but to engage in a purpose-driven, passionate life of hard work, determination, and discipline, you must hear these stories that God told her to write. Starting out as a single teenage mom and having been told she would amount to nothing, Tina chose to have faith and dared to be the best mom she could be through God, teaching her kids to be explosive while blowing the roof off the ceiling of their potential. Through this captivating book, she tells of her emotional journey in raising a very talented athlete in Sabria and then sending her off to the academy, followed by the struggles of hitting rock bottom after a devastating ACL injury during basketball season.
Author | : Gershom Gorenberg |
Publisher | : Harper Perennial |
Total Pages | : 336 |
Release | : 2012-12-04 |
ISBN-10 | : 0061985090 |
ISBN-13 | : 9780061985096 |
Rating | : 4/5 (90 Downloads) |
Prominent Israeli journalist Gershom Gorenberg offers a penetrating and provocative look at how the balance of power in Israel has shifted toward extremism, threatening the prospects for peace and democracy as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict intensifies. Informing his examination using interviews in Israel and the West Bank and with access to previously classified Israeli documents, Gorenberg delivers an incisive discussion of the causes and trends of extremism in Israel’s government and society. Michael Chabon, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay, writes, "until I read The Unmaking of Israel, I didn't think it could be possible to feel more despairing, and then more terribly hopeful, about Israel, a place that I began at last, under the spell of Gershom Gorenberg's lucid and dispassionate yet intensely personal writing, to understand."
Author | : Richard Ned Lebow |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 347 |
Release | : 2010-02-07 |
ISBN-10 | : 9780691132907 |
ISBN-13 | : 0691132909 |
Rating | : 4/5 (07 Downloads) |
Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.
Author | : Arturo Escobar |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 340 |
Release | : 2012 |
ISBN-10 | : 9780691150451 |
ISBN-13 | : 0691150451 |
Rating | : 4/5 (51 Downloads) |
Originally published: 1995. Paperback reissue, with a new preface by the author.