This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.

The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.

The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.

In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge‐making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro‐physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences.

Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.

Advances in scientific computing have made modelling and simulation an important part of the decision-making process in engineering, science, and public policy. This book provides a comprehensive and systematic development of the basic concepts, principles, and procedures for verification and validation of models and simulations. The emphasis is placed on models that are described by partial differential and integral equations and the simulations that result from their numerical solution. The methods described can be applied to a wide range of technical fields, from the physical sciences, engineering and technology and industry, through to environmental regulations and safety, product and plant safety, financial investing, and governmental regulations. This book will be genuinely welcomed by researchers, practitioners, and decision makers in a broad range of fields, who seek to improve the credibility and reliability of simulation results. It will also be appropriate either for university courses or for independent study.

14th International Symposium on Process Systems Engineering, Volume 49 brings together the international community of researchers and engineers interested in computing-based methods in process engineering. The conference highlights the contributions of the PSE community towards the sustainability of modern society and is based on the 2021 event held in Tokyo, Japan, July 1-23, 2021. It contains contributions from academia and industry, establishing the core products of PSE, defining the new and changing scope of our results, and covering future challenges. Plenary and keynote lectures discuss real-world challenges (globalization, energy, environment and health) and contribute to discussions on the widening scope of PSE versus the consolidation of the core topics of PSE. - Highlights how the Process Systems Engineering community contributes to the sustainability of modern society - Establishes the core products of Process Systems Engineering - Defines the future challenges of Process Systems Engineering

This book provides timely studies on multi-view facets of data analytics by covering recent trends in processing and reasoning about data originating from an array of local sources. A multi-view nature of data analytics is encountered when working with a variety of real-world scenarios including clustering, consensus building in decision processes, computer vision, knowledge representation, big data, data streaming, among others. The chapters demonstrate recent pursuits in the methodology, theory, advanced algorithms, and applications of multi-view data analytics and bring new perspectives of data interpretation. The timely book will appeal to a broad readership including both researchers and practitioners interested in gaining exposure to the rapidly growing trend of multi-view data analytics and intelligent systems.

The present volume contains selected papers issued from the sixth edition of the International Conference "Numerical methods for hyperbolic problems" that took place in 2019 in Málaga (Spain). NumHyp conferences, which began in 2009, focus on recent developments and new directions in the field of numerical methods for hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) and their applications. The 11 chapters of the book cover several state-of-the-art numerical techniques and applications, including the design of numerical methods with good properties (well-balanced, asymptotic-preserving, high-order accurate, domain invariant preserving, uncertainty quantification, etc.), applications to models issued from different fields (Euler equations of gas dynamics, Navier-Stokes equations, multilayer shallow-water systems, ideal magnetohydrodynamics or fluid models to simulate multiphase flow, sediment transport, turbulent deflagrations, etc.), and the development of new nonlinear dispersive shallow-water models. The volume is addressed to PhD students and researchers in Applied Mathematics, Fluid Mechanics, or Engineering whose investigation focuses on or uses numerical methods for hyperbolic systems. It may also be a useful tool for practitioners who look for state-of-the-art methods for flow simulation.

Computational Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Science Using Python provides the necessary knowledge users need to embed more modern computing techniques into current practices, while also helping practitioners replace Fortran-based implementations with higher level languages. The book is especially unique in the market with its implementation of Python into nuclear engineering methods, seeking to do so by first teaching the basics of Python, then going through different techniques to solve systems of equations, and finally applying that knowledge to solve problems specific to nuclear engineering. Along with examples of code and end-of-chapter problems, the book is an asset to novice programmers in nuclear engineering and radiological sciences, teaching them how to analyze complex systems using modern computational techniques. For decades, the paradigm in engineering education, in particular, nuclear engineering, has been to teach Fortran along with numerical methods for solving engineering problems. This has been slowly changing as new codes have been written utilizing modern languages, such as Python, thus resulting in a greater need for the development of more modern computational skills and techniques in nuclear engineering. - Offers numerical methods as a tool to solve specific problems in nuclear engineering - Provides examples on how to simulate different problems and produce graphs using Python - Supplies accompanying codes and data on a companion website, along with solutions to end-of-chapter problems