Uncertainty modeling in health risk assessment and groundwater resources a management Elcin Kentel 339 Pages Directed by Dr. M. Mustafa Aral Real-world problems especially the ones that involve natural systems are complex and they are composed of many non-deterministic components. Uncertainties associated with these non-deterministic components may originate from randomness or from imprecision due to lack of information. Until recently, uncertainty, regardless of its nature or source has been treated by probability concepts. However, uncertainties associated with real-world systems are not limited to randomness. Imprecise, vague or incomplete information may better be represented by other mathematical tools, such as fuzzy set theory, possibility theory, belief functions, etc. New approaches which allow utilization of probability theory in combination with these new mathematical tools found applications in various engineering fields. Uncertainty modeling in human health risk assessment and groundwater resources management areas are investigated in this thesis. In the first part of this thesis two new approaches which utilize both probability theory and fuzzy set theory concepts to treat parameter uncertainties in carcinogenic risk assessment are proposed. As a result of these approaches fuzzy health risks are generated. For the fuzzy risk to be useful for practical purposes its acceptability with respect to compliance guideline has to be evaluated. A new fuzzy measure, the risk tolerance measure, is proposed for this purpose. The risk tolerance measure is a weighed average of the possibility and the necessity measures which are currently used for decision making purposes. In the second part of this thesis two decision making frameworks are proposed to determine the best groundwater resources management strategy in the Savannah region, Georgia. Groundwater resources management problems, especially ones in the coastal areas are complex and require treatment of various uncertain inputs. The first decision making framework proposed in this study is composed of a coupled simulation-optimization model followed by a fuzzy multi-objective decision making approach while the second framework includes a groundwater flow model in which the parameters of the flow equation are characterized by fuzzy numbers and a decision making approach which utilizes the risk tolerance measure proposed in the first part of this thesis.

Written by renowned experts in the field, this book assesses the status of groundwater models and defines models and modeling needs in the 21st century. It reviews the state of the art in model development and application in regional groundwater management, unsaturated flow/multiphase flow and transport, island modeling, biological and virus transport, and fracture flow. Both deterministic and stochastic aspects of unsaturated flow and transport are covered. The book also introduces a unique assessment of models as analysis and management tools for groundwater resources. Topics covered include model vs. data uncertainty, accuracy of the dispersion/convection equation, protocols for model testing and validation, post-audit studies, and applying models to karst aquifers.

QUANTITATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS FOR HUMAN HEALTH An updated edition of the foundational guide to environmental risk analysis Environmental risk analysis is a systematic process essential for the evaluation, management, and communication of the human health risk posed by the release of contaminants to the environment. Performed correctly, risk analysis is an essential tool in the protection of the public from the health hazards posed by chemical and radioactive contaminants. Cultivating the quantitative skills required to perform risk analysis competently is a critical need. Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health meets this need with a thorough, comprehensive coverage of the fundamental knowledge necessary to assess environmental impacts on human health. It introduces readers to a robust methodology for analyzing environmental risk, as well as to the fundamental principles of uncertainty analysis and the pertinent environmental regulations. Now updated to reflect the latest research and new cutting-edge methodologies, this is an essential contribution to the practice of environmental risk analysis. Readers of the second edition of Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health will also find: Detailed treatment of source and release characterization, contaminant migration, exposure assessment, and more New coverage of computer-based analytical methods A new chapter of case studies providing actual, real-world examples of environmental risk assessments Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health is must-have for graduate and advanced undergraduate students in civil engineering, environmental engineering, and environmental science, as well as for risk analysis practitioners in industry, environmental consultants, and regulators.

A COMPREHENSIVE TEXTBOOK AND REFERENCE FOR QUANTITATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS FOR BOTH CHEMICAL AND RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINANTS Environmental risk analysis is complex and interdisciplinary; this book explains the fundamental concepts and analytical methods in each essential discipline. With an emphasis on concepts and applications of quantitative tools plus coverage of analysis of both chemical and radioactive contaminants, this is a comprehensive resource. After an introduction and an overview of the basics of environmental modeling, the book covers key elements in environmental risk analysis methodology, including: Release assessment and source characterization Migration of contaminants in various media, including surface water, groundwater, the atmosphere, and the food chain Exposure assessment Basic human toxicology and dose-response Risk characterization, including dose-response modeling and analysis Risk management process and methods Risk communication and public participation This reference also relates risk analysis to current environmental laws and regulations. An ideal textbook for graduate students and upper-level undergraduates in various engineering and quantitative science disciplines, especially civil and environmental engineering, it is also a great reference for practitioners in industry, environmental consulting firms, and regulatory agencies.

Environmental Modeling and Health Risk Analysis (ACTS/RISK) The purpose of this book is to provide the reader with an integrated perspective on several ?elds. First, it discusses the ?elds of environmental modeling in general and multimedia (the term “multimedia” is used throughout the text to indicate that environmental transformation and transport processes are discussed in association with three environmental media: air, groundwater and surface water pathways) environmental transformation and transport processes in particular; it also provides a detailed description of numerous mechanistic models that are used in these ?elds. Second, this book presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two software tools can be downloaded from the publisher’s web site. The author recommends registering the software on the web download page so that users can receive updates about newer versions of the software.

This volume discusses climate change impacts on groundwater quality in arid and semi-arid regions, and provides human health risk assessments due to pollution of surface and groundwater. The book presents recent trends in monitoring groundwater management and implementing pollution mitigation strategies, including practices involving remote sensing and GIS techniques, entropy water quality index, weighted arithmetic water quality index, fuzzy logic applications, and improved irrigation methods. The book also outlines hydrological processes in arid and semi-arid regions and hydrochemical properties of surface and groundwater as a necessary background for understanding how pollution impacts groundwater quality and resources, and how geographical modeling of hydrological processes can aid in human health risk assessments. The book is intended for academics, administrators, policymakers, social scientists, and professionals involved in the various aspects of climate change impact on groundwater quality, hydrological process, pollution mitigation strategies, sustainable development, and environmental planning and management.

The fiscal and technological limitations associated with cleaning up hazardous waste sites to background conditions have prompted responsible parties to turn to risk-based methods for environmental rememdiation. Environmental Cleanup at Navy Facilities reviews and critiques risk-based methods, including those developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the American Society of Testing and Materials. These critiques lead to the identification of eleven criteria that must be part of any risk-based methodology adopted by the Navy, a responsible party with a large number of complex and heavily contaminated waste sites. January