In Turkey, as in other countries, the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been severe. Thousands of lives have been tragically lost and many livelihoods compromised. The initial policy response to the pandemic—and subsequent sharp growth rebound—set Turkey apart from its peers. Rapid monetary and credit expansion and large liquidity support meant that Turkey was among the few countries to experience positive economic growth in 2020. But these policies also aggravated pre-existing economic and financial vulnerabilities. Higher inflation, increased dollarization, and a large shift in the current account position increased pressure on the lira and gave rise to heavy foreign exchange sales, which led in turn to steep reserve declines from already-low levels. A policy shift in late 2020—mainly towards tighter and more transparent monetary policy and slower credit growth—was both welcome and necessary. But the durability and depth of the shift were called into question in March 2021, following the change in central bank leadership, as the lira weakened markedly and interest rate spreads widened.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has created a prolonged health crisis. Economic activity was slowing prior to the pandemic. Two COVID-19 waves have resulted in a deep and broad-based economic downturn with the potential for a longer lasting impact. The authorities have responded with fiscal policy, including scaled-up support to vulnerable groups, monetary policy easing and liquidity provision, and accommodative financial sector and regulatory policies. Despite the pandemic, the authorities have continued to implement structural reforms.

A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.

Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. But renewed waves of infections and associated lockdowns caused economic activity to plunge again in the first quarter of this year. While the pace of mass vaccination has picked up and the economy has started to reopen, the recovery path is beset with risks, particularly with respect to the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in major industries. The authorities have maintained appropriately accommodative fiscal and financial policies, and most measures supporting households and firms have been extended through 2021.

South Africa’s subpar economic performance over the last decade has weakened its macroeconomic fundamentals and social indicators. In response to formidable COVID-19-related challenges, government expenditure surged, and, amid declining revenue, the budget deficit widened significantly. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Prudential Authority (PA) preserved adequate liquidity conditions and financial-sector stability. The cyclical recovery from the deep contraction has been faster than expected but its strength is unlikely to be sustained. Benign global market conditions have supported asset performance, although term premia are elevated due to fiscal risks. Bank soundness indicators remain solid, but a deepening bank-sovereign nexus raises some concerns.

Switzerland has navigated the COVID-19 pandemic well. The pandemic has had major social and economic impacts, but an early, strong, and sustained health and economic policy response helped contain the contraction of activity. Coordinated efforts targeting households and firms stemmed a loss of purchasing power and a rise of unemployment and bankruptcies. Recovery has commenced, but uncertainty and risks remain high, dominated by pandemic dynamics. The rebound should deepen, as vaccination proceeds, containment is eased, and domestic and global demand picks up. Fiscal support has been rightly extended in 2021, and monetary policy remains accommodative. Policies should remain supportive until there are clear signs of sustained recovery; the authorities should expand support if needed. Redirection to fostering green, digital transformation with attention to low-income earners will be needed, including to ensure that prolonged emergency support does not hinder structural changes in the economy.

COVID-19 severely hit the economy, causing a loss of tourism receipts and necessitating several strict lockdowns. Pre-pandemic tax cuts and the impact of COVID-19 led to fiscal deficits larger than 10 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2021 and a rapid increase in public debt to 119 percent of GDP in 2021. Sri Lanka’s access to international capital markets was lost in 2020, prompting a decline of international reserves to critically low levels and large-scale direct lending to the government by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). External debt repayments and a widening current account deficit have led to foreign exchange (FX) shortages, while the official exchange rate has been de facto fixed since April 2021. Inflation is on the rise, reaching double digits in December 2021, reflecting imported inflation, supply shocks, and a pickup in domestic demand amid loose monetary policy.

The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks have taken a deep toll on the Congolese economy, weighing on incomes and inequality. Debt sustainability challenges precluded Fund financial assistance during the pandemic, and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, approved in 2019, expired in April 2021 without having completed the first review. Recently, debt sustainability has been restored owing to the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy and current and projected higher oil prices. However, the risk of debt distress remains high given liquidity risks and vulnerabilities to negative oil price shocks. The authorities are actively negotiating the resolution of pending external arrears. Until this process is concluded and the negotiations with two external creditors are finalized, debt is classified as being “in distress.”

After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.

This volume is the continuation of our research on economic and developmental policy-making in the global semi-periphery in the post-crisis cycle (see our two recently published volumes titled ‘Market-Liberalism and Economic Patriotism in Capitalist Systems’ edited by Gerőcs and Szanyi, 2019, Palgrave Macmillan and ‘The Post-Crisis Developmental State – Perspectives from the Global Periphery’ edited by Gerőcs and Ricz, 2021). Our new volume aims to be a contribution to the analysis of emerging market economies’ alternative development trajectories, as we explore the new perspectives on semi-peripheral dependent development since the Global Financial Crisis and especially amidst the new global pandemic, the COVID-19. The scope of comparative capitalism research has also been altered accordingly to include the analysis of emerging economies outside the core of the world system, and to make intertemporal comparisons possible (such as to define and characterise historical waves of state capitalism). Still, we are convinced that to better understand the current wave of state capitalism and to explore its national varieties there is a need to critically reconsider existing theoretical approaches and methodologies, and to search for new ones, if necessary. This book aims to be a contribution to the analysis of emerging market economies' alternative development trajectories and explores new perspectives on semi-peripheral dependent development, especially amidst COVID-19.