This study of American trade policy addresses two puzzles associated with the use of aggressive bargaining tactics to open foreign markets. First, as the country with greater power and resources, why has the United States achieved more success in extracting concessions from some of its trading partners than others? Second, why is it that trade disputes between democratic and authoritarian states do not more frequently spark retaliatory actions than those between democratic pairs? Ka Zeng finds answers to both of these questions in the domestic repercussions of the structure of trade between the United States and its trading partners, whether the United States has a competitive trade relationship with its trading partner, or whether trade is complementary. This book offers practical policy prescriptions that promise to be of interest to trade policymakers and students of international trade policy. Ka Zeng is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville.

"This is a very important book."--Martin Wolf, Financial TimesA provocative look at how today's trade conflicts are caused by governments promoting the interests of elites at the expense of workers Longlisted for the 2020 Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award "Worth reading for [the authors'] insights into the history of trade and finance."--George Melloan, Wall Street Journal Trade disputes are usually understood as conflicts between countries with competing national interests, but as Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis show, they are often the unexpected result of domestic political choices to serve the interests of the rich at the expense of workers and ordinary retirees. Klein and Pettis trace the origins of today's trade wars to decisions made by politicians and business leaders in China, Europe, and the United States over the past thirty years. Across the world, the rich have prospered while workers can no longer afford to buy what they produce, have lost their jobs, or have been forced into higher levels of debt. In this thought-provoking challenge to mainstream views, the authors provide a cohesive narrative that shows how the class wars of rising inequality are a threat to the global economy and international peace--and what we can do about it.

The multi-front trade war, which started with solar panels and washing machines, quickly expanded to additional battles: the 232 action on Aluminum and Steel imports, Intellectual Property, Autos, and Immigration. As a result, retaliatory tariffs were imposed and the flow of global trade the world once knew was changed. Headlines reporting the China tariffs "on hold," "truces announced" as well as threats of additional tariffs being imposed, continue to feed the uncertainty which would send the markets to historic highs and dramatic selloffs.So how can one get a sense of the true status of trade and the good faith being pledged by countries like China?Through the trade flows!With ninety percent of the world's economy moved by maritime transport, the ocean highway is the best way for anyone to gauge the status of trade talks as well as monitor the flow of trade. Remember, the two phrases your mom said when you were a teen: "talk is cheap" and "actions speak louder than words?" Well, when it comes to the world of shipping, that is the action being taken. Best-selling author Lori Ann LaRocco takes readers inside the world of global trade and shows us: Containers and tankers don't lie.Let's cut through the political rhetoric and see what the tea leaves of maritime are telling us, as well as the strategies some business leaders are employing to navigate the trade wars.

Global Tariff War: Economic, Political and Social Implications traces the impacts that global tariff wars in international trade can have on the growth of national economies. Offering a range of perspectives from developing economies, this collection presents a unique insight into this complex area of geo-political and economic practice.

An accessible overview of political, economic, and strategic dimensions of global supply chains in a changing global political economy.

China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 was heralded as historic, and for good reason: the world's most populous nation was joining the rule-based system that has governed international commerce since World War II. But the full ramifications of that event are only now becoming apparent, as the Chinese economic juggernaut has evolved in unanticipated and profoundly troublesome ways. In this book, journalist Paul Blustein chronicles the contentious process resulting in China's WTO membership and the transformative changes that followed, both good and bad - for China, for its trading partners, and for the global trading system as a whole. The book recounts how China opened its markets and underwent far-reaching reforms that fuelled its economic takeoff, but then adopted policies - a cheap currency and heavy-handed state intervention - that unfairly disadvantaged foreign competitors and circumvented WTO rules. Events took a potentially catastrophic turn in 2018 with the eruption of a trade war between China and the United States, which has brought the trading system to a breaking point. Regardless of how the latest confrontation unfolds, the world will be grappling for decades with the challenges posed by China Inc.

We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.

Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump's sweeping proposals on international trade, if implemented, could unleash a trade war that would plunge the US economy into recession and cost more than 4 million private sector American jobs, according to an empirical analysis of the two candidates' trade agendas by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, has expressed skepticism about trade but does not advocate a change in the status quo. Marcus Noland, Tyler Moran, and Sherman Robinson employ a macroeconomic model to show that if Trump raises tariffs sharply on China, Mexico, and other trading partners, export-dependent US industries in the information technology, aerospace, and engineering sectors would be the most severely affected. But the shock resulting from Trump's proposed trade sanctions would also damage sectors not engaged directly in trade. In a separate legal analysis, Gary Clyde Hufbauer argues that there is ample precedent and scope for a US president to unilaterally raise tariffs as Trump has vowed to do as a centerpiece of his trade policy.

Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.