This paper examines the impact on total factor productivity of North-South and South-South trade-related research and development (R&D) spillovers. It is the first to do so at the industry level for developing countries. North-South and South-South R&D flows are constructed based on industry-specific R&D in the North, North-South and South-South trade patterns, and input-output relations in the South. The main findings are: 1) North-South and South-South R&D flows have a positive impact on total factor productivity, though the former is larger. 2) R&D-intensive industries benefit mainly from North-South R&D flows while low R&D-intensive industries benefit mainly from South-South R&D flows. These results have implications for dynamic comparative advantage and for the dynamics of North-South and South-South regional integration.

The main research problem addressed in the book is the one regarding the role that export diversification could play for enhancing economic growth in Colombia, both in terms of new products and new geographic markets. The underlying motivation for centering the analysis on the European Union’s market are manifold, reaching from the evident concentration of exports – both in terms of composition and markets- that Colombia still shows, to the small amount of empirical studies analyzing the current status and potentialities of the commercial relations between Colombia and the European Union.

Robalino, Jenkins, and El Maroufi develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region--Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors--sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP. This paper--a product of the Human Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region--is part of a larger effort in the region to raise awareness about the social and economic cost of HIV/AIDS. David Robalino may be contacted at [email protected].

The paper documents the case of Uganda's telecommunications reform. Uganda is one of only two countries in Africa that decided to privatize telecommunications in a competitive framework by selling a second national operator license. The authors find that Uganda did not sacrifice significant sales proceeds by choosing competition, but instead gained tremendously in both the speed and scale of investment from its early focus on competition.

Recent experiences in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.