The aim of this paper is to address the implications of Global Value Chains (GVCs) for the Fund’s surveillance work. The paper first draws on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to document the dynamics of trade linkages between countries and regions through GVCs and its impact on the real economy. The paper then examines the implications of GVCs for the real effective exchange rate (REER), a key tool used at the Fund for bilateral as well as multilateral surveillance work, and shows the potential benefit of revisiting the REER formula in light of the increasing relevance of GVCs. The paper ends with implications of GVCs for trade and trade-related policies and the multilateral trading system

This book examines how global value chains have evolved and the policy challenges they have created.

Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.

A collection of papers by some of the world's leading specialists on global value chains (GVCs). It examines how GVCs have evolved and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing world. The approach is multi-disciplinary, with contributions from economists, political scientists, supply chain management specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. Co-published with the Fung Global Institute and the Temasek

A radical shift is underway in global value chains as they increasingly move beyond traditional manufacturing processes to services and other intangible assets. Digitization is a leading factor in this transformation, which is being accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The Global Value Chain Development Report, the third of a biennial series, explores this shift beyond production. The report shows how the rise of services value chains offers a new path to development and how protectionism and geopolitical tensions, environmental risks, and pandemics are undermining the stability of global value chains and forcing their reorganization geographically. It is co-published by the WTO, the Asian Development Bank, the Research Institute for Global Value Chains at the University of International Business and Economics, the Institute of Developing Economies, and the China Development Research Foundation.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

Over the last two decades, world trade and production have become increasingly organized around global value chains (GVC). Recent theoretical work has shown that countries can benefit from participation in GVCs through multiple channels. However, little is known empirically about the economic importance of supply chains. We use the Eora MRIO database to compute different measures of GVC participation for 189 countries and illustrate global patterns of supply chains as well as their evolution over time in order to contribute to this topic. We find that GVC-related trade, rather than conventional trade, has a positive impact on income per capita and productivity, however there is large heterogeneity and the gains appear more signifcant for upper-middle and high-income countries. We document that “moving up” to more high-tech sectors while participating in major supply chains does take place but is not universal, suggesting other factors matter. We confirm the findings of the standard gravity literature for GVC trade; highlighting the key role of institutional features such as contract enforcement and the quality of infrastructure as determinants of GVC participation.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia.

This Companion provides a review of global value chains (GVCs) and the megatrends that are shaping them and will continue to reshape them in deep-set trajectories of change over the next few decades. Megatrends herald both challenges and opportunities. With the growing interest among business leaders and researchers in GVCs, this is a reference work which fills a gap in current literature by focusing on the new features of GVCs, including the shift of global purchasing power towards developing economies, the significance of emerging technologies and data analytics, the increasing tensions between globalisation and de-globalisation, and the role of micro-multinationals, start-up entrepreneurs, the public sector and middle markets in a fast-changing global economy. The early chapters are essentially intradisciplinary in character, with the first seeking to explore some historical aspects of GVCs. Subsequent chapters cover the theory and practice of operations and supply chain management, emerging supply chain technologies, and the impact of inter-firm collaboration across sectors and economies. The final chapters take a more interdisciplinary approach and examine topics at the interface of GVCs with the economy, society, culture and politics. This comprehensive handbook provides a timely analysis of leading-edge global megatrends and practices in one volume.