This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.

Philosophy East/West showcases new scholarship in the philosophy of education and contemplative studies, paying particular attention to the intersection of mindfulness, evidence-based science, and wisdom traditions. Moves beyond simplistic explanations of “Eastern” and “Western” to explore the complexity and diversity of various wisdom traditions Investigates the effect of mindfulness-based curricular interventions on current educational theory and practice Uses insights from important Western philosophers—including Heidegger, Levinas, and Foucault—to situate contemplative practice within contemporary educational theory Emphasizes the importance of transcultural and intercultural approaches in the philosophy of education

A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.

A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.

An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.

Presents a risk-management process would help senior Air Force leaders to (1) focus planning on the most salient threats, (2) gain greater clarity on the risks associated with alternative courses of action across multiple futures, (3) maintain a sense of the persistent uncertainties associated with any policy choice, and (4) effectively communicate their judgments about risk to key audiences.

Security environment is characterized by deep uncertainty. Threats are being posed not only by adversary (political) forces but may also come from natural challenges. This title reflects the initial state of a dialogue between specialists in security and specialists in mathematics, computer and information sciences on security topics.

The research reported in this monograph is part of RAND's continuing work on practical theory and methods for capabilities-based planning in the Department of Defense (DoD) and other organizations. Its particular contribution is to describe and illustrate in some detail an analytic framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews including DoD's experimental Concept Decision Reviews and related evaluations of alternatives (Krieg, 2007). The monograph also describes newly developed enabling tools -- one for generating and screening preliminary options and one for evaluating in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. Finally, the monograph illustrates concepts with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).