From the preface The "threshold p-value"-the arbiter of statistical significance-has been a widely used gateway to believability and acceptance for publication in scientific research since 1925. However, a growing number of statisticians and other researchers say we should "move beyond" these ideas, suggesting we should greatly reduce our emphasis on them in scientific research. These authors are waging a well-intentioned, polite, and vigorous intellectual war on the ideas of a threshold p-value and statistical significance. This is a "good" war, because it forces important issues into the open, where they can be best understood and assessed. This book grew from a sense that the threshold-p-value gateway to publication of scientific research results is highly useful but is also widely misunderstood. The book presents, from first principles, a modern view of the role of the gateway, as used by some scientific journals. The ideas are explained in terms of the recent disagreement about them between the editorial in a Special Issue on Statistical Inference of the American Statistician and a subsequent editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine. The ideas are developed with almost no reference to mathematics. (A computer can do all the standard math if the user properly understands the key ideas.) The explanations are reinforced with practical examples. The discussion shows how the concept of a threshold-p-value gateway helps researchers and journal editors maximize the overall scientific, social, and commercial benefit of scientific research. The gateway does this by optimally balancing the rates of costly "false-positive" and "false-negative" errors in a scientific journal. The book also discusses the important related ideas of a relationship between variables, a scientific hypothesis test, and the "replication crisis" in some branches of scientific research. The body of the book, which covers the key ideas, is roughly 30% of the text. The remainder consists of 23 appendices that expand the ideas in useful directions. The material is aimed at scientific researchers, journal editors, science teachers, and science students in the biological, social, and physical sciences. It will also be of interest to statisticians, data scientists, philosophers of science, and lay readers seeking an integrated modern view of the high-level operation of the study of relationships between variables in scientific research. About the author Donald B. Macnaughton has been a statistical consultant for more than 40 years. He has managed the statistical aspects of research in the fields of experimental psychology, zoology, drug dependence, nursing, education, business, geography, physical education, and inmate rehabilitation, among others. His consulting work supports and informs his main interest, which is to read, understand, and write about the vital role of the field of statistics in scientific research.

Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Statistical Power Analysis is a nontechnical guide to power analysis in research planning that provides users of applied statistics with the tools they need for more effective analysis. The Second Edition includes: * a chapter covering power analysis in set correlation and multivariate methods; * a chapter considering effect size, psychometric reliability, and the efficacy of "qualifying" dependent variables and; * expanded power and sample size tables for multiple regression/correlation.

In this "important and comprehensive" guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems. Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.

A practical approach to using regression and computation to solve real-world problems of estimation, prediction, and causal inference.

The battle at Kursk in 1943 is often referred to as the greatest tank battle in the history of warfare. This volume makes extensive use of German archival documents as well as various Russian books and articles. As well as an account of the battle, it addresses methodological issues.

Understanding statistical concepts is essential for social work professionals. It is key to understanding research and reaching evidence-based decisions in your own practice—but that is only the beginning. If you understand statistics, you can determine the best interventions for your clients. You can use new tools to monitor and evaluate the progress of your client or team. You can recognize biased systems masked by complex models and the appearance of scientific neutrality. For social workers, statistics are not just math, they are a critical practice tool. This concise and approachable introduction to statistics limits its coverage to the concepts most relevant to social workers. Statistics in Social Work guides students through concepts and procedures from descriptive statistics and correlation to hypothesis testing and inferential statistics. Besides presenting key concepts, it focuses on real-world examples that students will encounter in a social work practice. Using concrete illustrations from a variety of potential concentrations and populations, Amy Batchelor creates clear connections between theory and practice—and demonstrates the important contributions statistics can make to evidence-based and rigorous social work practice.

General George S. Patton famously said, "Compared to war all other forms of human endeavor shrink to insignificance. God, I do love it so!" Though Patton was a notoriously single-minded general, it is nonetheless a sad fact that war gives meaning to many lives, a fact with which we have become familiar now that America is once again engaged in a military conflict. War is an enticing elixir. It gives us purpose, resolve, a cause. It allows us to be noble. Chris Hedges of The New York Times has seen war up close -- in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Central America -- and he has been troubled by what he has seen: friends, enemies, colleagues, and strangers intoxicated and even addicted to war's heady brew. In War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning, he tackles the ugly truths about humanity's love affair with war, offering a sophisticated, nuanced, intelligent meditation on the subject that is also gritty, powerful, and unforgettable.

This book provides a multi-level introduction to Bayesian reasoning (as opposed to “conventional statistics”) and its applications to data analysis. The basic ideas of this “new” approach to the quantification of uncertainty are presented using examples from research and everyday life. Applications covered include: parametric inference; combination of results; treatment of uncertainty due to systematic errors and background; comparison of hypotheses; unfolding of experimental distributions; upper/lower bounds in frontier-type measurements. Approximate methods for routine use are derived and are shown often to coincide — under well-defined assumptions! — with “standard” methods, which can therefore be seen as special cases of the more general Bayesian methods. In dealing with uncertainty in measurements, modern metrological ideas are utilized, including the ISO classification of uncertainty into type A and type B. These are shown to fit well into the Bayesian framework.

A New York Times bestseller "Brilliant, funny…the best math teacher you never had." —San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called "sexy." From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.