In the tiny country of Limbakar, there arose a dramatic transformation of the government, the first in its history. Twenty-four hours after this gruesome change, two private soldiers were attracted by the array of posh cars lined up in the parking lot; they took a close look into the cars which had their keys still in the ignitions and their doors unlocked. Compelled by their curiosity, they entered two of the cars; the first turned the key, and the engine started; the second did likewise. The first pushed the gear forward, while the second pushed the gear in reverse. Both cars were in motion. The first rolled forward, while the second rolled backward. Both cars moved uncontrollably in a merry-go-round scenario, and the bewildered soldiers were unable to manipulate the cars but barked orders at the cars to halt. But the cars were not attuned to taking orders. The cars only stopped after an explosive crash into the parked cars, causing a giant inferno from which both soldiers escaped unhurt. The adjutant rebuked the soldiers for their downright indiscipline, but they replied, The cars disobeyed orders to halt and ought to be court-martialed. The adjutant ordered the soldiers locked up for life, because even their lifetime pay would not cover the restoration of the value of the spectacular posh cars, which their irresponsible action has brought to a catastrophe.

" This monograph describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy. It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should have to respond to a failed state, especially one of vital interest to the United States and one on the cusp of a civil war. Nation-states can fail for a myriad of reasons: cultural or religious conflict, a broken social contract between the government and the governed, a catastrophic natural disaster, financial collapse, war and so forth. Nigeria with its vast oil wealth, large population, and strategic position in Africa and the global economy can, if it fails disproportionately affect the United States and the global economy. Nigeria, like many nations in Africa, gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1960. It is the most populous country in Africa and will have nearly 250 million people by 2030. In its relatively short modern history, Nigeria has survived five military coups as well as separatist and religious wars, is mired in an active armed insurgency, is suffering from disastrous ecological conditions in its Niger Delta region, and is fighting one of the modern world's worst legacies of political and economic corruption. A nation with more than 350 ethnic groups, 250 languages, and three distinct religious affiliations--Christian, Islamic, and animist Nigeria's 135 million people today are anything but homogenous. Of Nigeria's 36 states, 12 are Islamic and under the strong and growing influence of the Sokoto caliphate. While religious and ethnic violence are commonplace, the federal government has managed to strike a tenuous balance among the disparate religious and ethnic factions. With such demographics, Nigeria's failure would be akin to a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor--it would simply shatter into potentially hundreds of pieces."--DTIC abstract.

Security in Africa: A Critical Approach to Western Indicators of Threat questions the dominant Western narrative of security threats in Africa. Based on an analysis traditional security studies and Western security policy, it argues that commonly used indicators are based on mainstream security studies and provide only circumscribed analyses of threats to international security. By assessing the origins of this traditional approach to security and problematizing failed states, political instability, Muslim populations, and poverty among others, it makes the case for a critical approach to framing security challenges in Africa.

Research carried out by the World Bank on the root causes of conflict and civil war finds that a developing country's economic dependence on natural resources or other primary commodities is strongly associated with the risk level for violent conflict. This book brings together a collection of reports and case studies that explore what the international community in particular can do to reduce this risk.; The text explains the links between natural resources and conflict and examines the impact of resource dependence on economic performance, governance, secessionist movements and revel financing. It then explores avenues for international action - from financial and resource reporting procedures and policy recommendations to commodity tracking systems and enforcement instruments, including sanctions, certification requirements, aid conditionality, legislative and judicial instruments.

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Signs of hope in sub-Saharan Africa: modest but steady economic growth and the spread of democracy. By the end of the twentieth century, sub-Saharan Africa had experienced twenty-five years of economic and political disaster. While “economic miracles” in China and India raised hundreds of millions from extreme poverty, Africa seemed to have been overtaken by violent conflict and mass destitution, and ranked lowest in the world in just about every economic and social indicator. Working in Busia, a small Kenyan border town, economist Edward Miguel began to notice something different starting in 1997: modest but steady economic progress, with new construction projects, flower markets, shops, and ubiquitous cell phones. In Africa's Turn? Miguel tracks a decade of comparably hopeful economic trends throughout sub-Saharan Africa and suggests that we may be seeing a turnaround. He bases his hopes on a range of recent changes: democracy is finally taking root in many countries; China's successes have fueled large-scale investment in Africa; and rising commodity prices have helped as well. Miguel warns, though, that the growth is fragile. Violence and climate change could derail it quickly, and he argues for specific international assistance when drought and civil strife loom. Responding to Miguel, nine experts gauge his optimism. Some question the progress of democracy in Africa or are more skeptical about China's constructive impact, while others think that Miguel has underestimated the threats represented by climate change and population growth. But most agree that something new is happening, and that policy innovations in health, education, agriculture, and government accountability are the key to Africa's future. Contributors Olu Ajakaiye, Ken Banks, Robert Bates, Paul Collier, Rachel Glennerster, Rosamond Naylor, Smita Singh, David N. Weil, and Jeremy M. Weinstein

The winners of the Nobel Prize show how economics, when done right, can help us solve the thorniest social and political problems of our day. Figuring out how to deal with today's critical economic problems is perhaps the great challenge of our time. Much greater than space travel or perhaps even the next revolutionary medical breakthrough, what is at stake is the whole idea of the good life as we have known it. Immigration and inequality, globalization and technological disruption, slowing growth and accelerating climate change--these are sources of great anxiety across the world, from New Delhi and Dakar to Paris and Washington, DC. The resources to address these challenges are there--what we lack are ideas that will help us jump the wall of disagreement and distrust that divides us. If we succeed, history will remember our era with gratitude; if we fail, the potential losses are incalculable. In this revolutionary book, renowned MIT economists Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo take on this challenge, building on cutting-edge research in economics explained with lucidity and grace. Original, provocative, and urgent, Good Economics for Hard Times makes a persuasive case for an intelligent interventionism and a society built on compassion and respect. It is an extraordinary achievement, one that shines a light to help us appreciate and understand our precariously balanced world.

Rebel groups exhibit significant variation in their treatment of civilians, with profound humanitarian consequences. This book proposes a new theory of rebel behavior and cohesion based on the internal dynamics of rebel groups. Rebel groups are more likely to protect civilians and remain unified when rebel leaders can offer cash payments and credible future rewards to their top commanders. The leader's ability to offer incentives that allow local security to prevail depends on partnerships with external actors, such as diaspora communities and foreign governments. This book formalizes this theory and tests the implications through an in-depth look at the rebel groups involved in Liberia's civil war. The book also analyzes a micro-level dataset of crop area during Liberia's war, derived through remote sensing, and an original cross-national dataset of rebel groups.