This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.

The third in a new series, the Contemporary Archive of the Islamic World (CAIW), this title draws on the resources of Cambridge-based World of Information, which since 1975 has followed the politics and economics of the region. Kuwait’s documented history begins in the mid-19th Century. Its location established it as an important entrepôt at the head of the Arabian Gulf. Notionally under Ottoman rule, it became a de facto protectorate of Great Britain. The discovery of oil changed Kuwait beyond recognition. It gained full independence in 1971 and was long considered the most developed state in the Gulf. Coveted by Iraq, it was invaded in 1990. It also played a part in the2003 invasion of Iraq.

Kuwait is one of the biggest players in the global energy market, with its proven oil reserves currently the sixth largest in the world. Although revenues from hydrocarbons account for more than 60% of GDP and 95% of exports, the country’s low production costs and sizeable fiscal reserves mean it is well positioned to cope with lower oil prices in the short term. This is clear from the government’s ongoing commitment to delivering projects outlined in the national development strategy, Kuwait Vision 2035. In the financial services sector, Kuwait continues to perform well, as a series of regulations put in place by the Central Bank of Kuwait in recent years have served to shore up the sector’s recovery from the global economic downturn.

Kuwait accounts for approximately 6.1% of the world’s proven oil reserves, with hydrocarbons revenues comprising more than 65% of the country’s GDP and 95% of total exports in 2013. Cautious budgetary decisions have resulted in large surpluses, creating a solid base for public expenditure programmes such as the National Development Plan, which is set to diversify the economy and boost employment. Although tapering the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme is likely to affect global liquidity and play a key part in growth prospects for 2014/15, the GCC economy is still forecast to expand by 4.1% for the year, and in Kuwait, where a handful of new PPP plans and deals are slated for 2014, there are promising signs that the year could be a landmark for economic growth and expansion.

Oil production retains its key role in the economy, however plans are under way to encourage diversification away from hydrocarbons towards an economy that is more knowledge based. The political climate has been characterised of late by a number of disputes, often resulting in either the resignation of the government or the dissolution of parliament, which has contributed to the slow progress of some projects.

Insecure Gulf examines how the concept of Arabian/Persian Gulf 'security' is evolving in response to new challenges that are increasingly non-military and longer-term. Food, water and energy security, managing and mitigating the impact of environmental degradation and climate change, addressing demographic pressures and the youth bulge and reformulating structural economic deficiencies, in addition to dealing with the fallout from progressive state failure in Yemen, require a broad, global and multi-dimensional approach to Gulf security. While 'traditional' threats from Iraq, Iran, nuclear proliferation and trans-national terrorism remain robust, these new challenges to Gulf security have the potential to strike at the heart of the social contract and redistributive mechanisms that bind state and society in the Arab oil monarchies. Insecure Gulf explores the relationship between 'traditional' and 'new' security challenges and situates them within the changing political economy of the GCC states as they move toward post-oil structures of governance. It describes how regimes are anticipating and reacting to the shifting security paradigm, and contextualizes these changes within the broader political, economic, social and demographic framework. It also argues that a holistic approach to security is necessary for regimes to renew their sources of legitimacy in a globalizing world.