A perfect introduction to the exploding field of Data Science for the curious, first-time student. The author brings his trademark conversational tone to the important pillars of the discipline: exploratory data analysis, choices for structuring data, causality, machine learning principles, and introductory Python programming using open-source Jupyter Notebooks. This engaging read will allow any dedicated learner to build the skills necessary to contribute to the Data Science revolution, regardless of background.

The most comprehensive NLP Practitioner course manual ever written. A fully revised and updated edition, it contains the very latest in Neuro-Linguistic Programming, particularly with regard to the Meta-states model and the Meta-model of language. For all those embarking on Practitioner training or wishing to study at home, this book is your essential companion. Written and designed by two of the most important theorists in NLP today.

Quartz crystal balls and crystal bowls are popular magical tools. Yet, not everyone understands the extent of their power and multipurpose potential. Ted Andrews reveals how these dynamic instruments can be used for divination, astral projection, spirit communication, healing, and reaching higher states of consciousness. Readers will learn many methods of crystal gazing, along with ways to enhance this practice with candles, fragrances, and elixirs. Also included are techniques for divining with water, communicating with angels and spirit guides, developing clairvoyance, and activating creativity. This updated edition also contains new illustrations.

Praise for Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball(r) and Excel(r) "Professor Charnes's book drives clarity into applied Monte Carlo analysis using examples and tools relevant to real-world finance. The book will prove useful for analysts of all levels and as a supplement to academic courses in multiple disciplines." -Mark Odermann, Senior Financial Analyst, Microsoft "Think you really know financial modeling? This is a must-have for power Excel users. Professor Charnes shows how to make more realistic models that result in fewer surprises. Every analyst needs this credibility booster." -James Franklin, CEO, Decisioneering, Inc. "This book packs a first-year MBA's worth of financial and business modeling education into a few dozen easy-to-understand examples. Crystal Ball software does the housekeeping, so readers can concentrate on the business decision. A careful reader who works the examples on a computer will master the best general-purpose technology available for working with uncertainty." -Aaron Brown, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley, author of The Poker Face of Wall Street "Using Crystal Ball and Excel, John Charnes takes you step by step, demonstrating a conceptual framework that turns static Excel data and financial models into true risk models. I am astonished by the clarity of the text and the hands-on, step-by-step examples using Crystal Ball and Excel; Professor Charnes is a masterful teacher, and this is an absolute gem of a book for the new generation of analyst." -Brian Watt, Chief Operating Officer, GECC, Inc. "Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel is a comprehensive, well-written guide to one of the most useful analysis tools available to professional risk managers and quantitative analysts. This is a must-have book for anyone using Crystal Ball, and anyone wanting an overview of basic risk management concepts." -Paul Dietz, Manager, Quantitative Analysis, Westar Energy "John Charnes presents an insightful exploration of techniques for analysis and understanding of risk and uncertainty in business cases. By application of real options theory and Monte Carlo simulation to planning, doors are opened to analysis of what used to be impossible, such as modeling the value today of future project choices." -Bruce Wallace, Nortel

The natural sequel to Volume One of the Crystal Ball Instruction Manual, this clean, readable text helps the new Data Science student further develop his or her data analysis and programming skills. The author brings his trademark conversational tone to the next steps of the discipline: synthetic data set generation, data fusion and reshaping, probabilistic reasoning and causality, accessing data from new sources (including JSON, relational databases, screen scraping, and public APIs) and the fundamental principles of machine learning. This engaging read will allow any dedicated learner to build the skills necessary to contribute to the Data Science revolution, regardless of background.

Revelation is probably the most read, but least understood book of the Bible. History is replete with examples of how not to interpret it, and books featuring end-of-world prophecy claims based on Revelation consistently top the bestseller lists. But how can the message of such an enigmatic book be applied to our lives today? In Discipleship on the Edge, Darrell W. Johnson drives home the challenging and practical message of Revelation in thirty carefully crafted sermons. Paying careful attention to the original context of Revelation and the circumstances surrounding its composition, Johnson shows that the book is not a "crystal ball" but rather a "discipleship manual." Thoroughly researched and yet accessible, this collection of sermons is a helpful resource for pastors and small group leaders who are looking for models to help them preach and teach the message of Revelation in a time when there is much confusion about the end times. Darrell W. Johnson serves as Scholar-in-Residence at The Way Church and Canadian Church Leaders Network in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. A popular conference and retreat speaker, he has also served as the preaching pastor for a number of congregations in North America and the Philippines, as well as serving as Adjunct Professor of Preaching for the Doctor of Ministry program at Fuller Theological Seminary in Pasadena, California, and a Teaching Fellow at Regent College. His other books include Experiencing the Trinity and Fifty-Seven Words That Change The World.

This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.

A former FBI agent shares his simple but powerful toolkit for assessing who you can trust--and who you can't. After two decades as a behavior analyst in the FBI, Robin Dreeke knows a thing or two about sizing people up. He's navigated complex situations that range from handling Russian spies to navigating the internal politics at the Bureau. Through that experience, he was forced to develop a knack for reading people--their intentions, their capabilities, their desires and their fears. Dreeke's first book, It's Not All About "Me," has become a cult favorite with readers seeking to build quick rapport with others. His last book, The Code of Trust, was about how to inspire trust in others as a leader. In Sizing People Up, Dreeke shares his simple, six-step system that helps you predict anyone's future behavior based on their words, goals, patterns of action, and the situation at hand. Predicting the behavior of others is an urgent need for anyone whose work involves relationships with others, whether it's leading an organization, collaborating with a teammate, or closing a sale. But predictability is not as simple as good and evil, or truth and fiction. Allies might make a promise with every intention of keeping it, not realizing that they will be unable to do so due to some personal shortcoming. And those seeking to thwart your endeavor may not realize how reliable their malevolent tells have become. Dreeke's system is simple, but powerful. For instance, a colleague might have a strong moral code, but do they believe your relationship will be long-term? Even the most upstanding person can betray your trust if they don't see themselves tied to you or your desired result in the long term. How can you determine whether someone has both the skill and will to do what they've said they're going to do? Behaviors as subtle as how they take notes will reveal their reliability. Using this book as their manual, readers will be able to quickly and easily determine who they can trust and who they can't; who is likely to deliver on promises and who will disappoint; and when a person is vested in your success vs when they are actively plotting your demise. With this knowledge they can confidently embark on anything from a business venture to a romantic relationship to a covert operation without the stress of the unknown.

Contact Juggling is an unusual and beautiful juggling technique. It involves rolling one or more balls on the hands, arms, and body. It combines the visual grace of dance with the technical demands of juggling. It is a joy to watch and a satisfying challenge to perform. This is James Ernest's original instruction book on contact juggling, first released in 1990, and now in its third edition. It contains instructions for all the basic moves, including hand rolls, isolations, multi-ball palm spinning, and more. It also contains updated sections describing a wealth of new and unusual contact juggling tricks. Juggler's World Magazine called Contact Juggling "one of the best-designed juggling instruction books available." The text and illustrations are clear and thorough. Grab your copy today!