Future U.S. national security strategy is likely to be profoundly affected by the ongoing, rapid evolution of cyberspace--the global information infrastructure--and in particular by the growing dependence of the U.S. military and other national institutions and infrastructures on potentially vulnerable elements of the U.S. national information infrastructure. To examine these effects, the authors conducted a series of exercises employing a methodology known as the Day After ... in which participants are presented with an information warfare crisis scenario and asked to advise the president on possible responses. Participants included senior national security community members and representatives from security-related telecommunications and information-systems industries. The report synthesizes the exercise results and presents the instructions from the exercise materials in their entirety.

Advances in information technology have led us to rely on easy communication and readily available information--both in our personal lives and in the life of our nation. For the most part, we have rightly welcomed these changes. But information that is readily available is available to friend and foe alike; a system that relies on communication can become useless if its ability to communicate is interfered with or destroyed. Because this reliance is so general, attacks on the information infrastructure can have widespread effects, both for the military and for society. And such attacks can come from a variety of sources, some difficult or impossible to identify. This, the third volume in the Strategic Appraisal series, draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore the opportunities and vulnerabilities inherent in the increasing reliance on information technology, looking both at its usefulness to the warrior and the need to protect its usefulness for everyone. The Strategic Appraisal series is intended to review, for a broad audience, issues bearing on national security and defense planning.

Impending technological advances will widen an adversary’s attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future. Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape. This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader’s understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of “the next biological public health crisis.” The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner’s handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.

This volume develops information strategy as a construct equal in importance to military strategy as an influential tool of statecraft. John Arquilla and Douglas A. Borer explore three principal themes: the rise of the ‘information domain’ and information strategy as an equal partner alongside traditional military strategy the need to consider the organizational implications of information strategy the realm of what has been called ‘information operations’ (IO) - the building blocks of information strategy - has been too narrowly depicted and must be both broadened and deepened. Information Strategy and Warfare will be essential reading for students and practitioners of information strategy, as well as scholars of security studies and military strategy in general.

The objective of this effort was to derive a framework for policy and strategy decision making on problems raised by the emerging potential of Strategic Information Warfare. This study was undertaken in recognition that future U.S. national security strategy is likely to be profoundly affected by the ongoing rapid evolution of cyberspace; the Global Information Infrastructure (GII) and, thus by the growing dependence of the U.S. military and other national institutions and infrastructures on potentially vulnerable elements of the U.S. national information infrastructure. This report should be of special interest to those who are exploring the effect of the information revolution on strategic warfare, and to those who are concerned with ensuring the security of information dependent infrastructures. It should also be of interest to those segments of the U.S. and the international security community that are concerned with the post-Cold War evolution of military and national security strategy, especially strategy changes driven wholly or in part by the evolution of, and possible revolutions in, information technology. The research reported here builds on an earlier and ongoing body of research within the center on the national security implications of the information revolution.

Strategic Information Warfare (SIW) lies at the intersection of the information revolution and the ongoing revolution in strategic warfare. Our reliance on information systems may present an attractive target to potential post-Cold War adversaries. This could lead to attacks on critical information-dependent infrastructures, such as electric power, telecommunications, and transportation that would threaten both our economic security and our military strategy. The goal of this project was to formulate a common DoD strategy and policy framework for addressing the challenge of strategic information warfare. Our result appears to offer a useful means of organizing thinking about the emerging SIW problem and achieving an inaugural action plan. It should therefore contribute to the ongoing effort to identify current U.S. SIW-related issues on which decisions need to be made and the appropriate forum(s). This framework and process, though oriented to U.S. national decisionmaking, should also contribute to preparations for the imperative, and even more challenging, international decisionmaking process on this subject.

This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States' adversaries and allies, where conflicts will be fought, and how and why they might occur.

The struggle to control information will be at the heart of a U.S-China military competition Much of the talk about intensifying confrontation between the United States and China has ignored the question of how modern technology will be wielded in a rising conflict. This ground-breaking book by an expert in technology and national security argues that the two contemporary superpowers will base their security competition primarily on the fight to dominate information and perception. One of the crucial questions facing each country is how it will attack the adversary's information architecture while protecting its own. How each country chooses to employ information countermeasures will, in large measure, determine the amount of friction and uncertainty in the conflict between them. Artificial intelligence will lie at the heart of this information-based war. But the adaptation of AI algorithms into operational systems will take time, and of course will be subject to countermeasures developed by a very sophisticated adversary using disruption and deception. To determine how China will approach the conflict, this book reviews recent Chinese research into sensing, communications, and artificial intelligence. Chinese officials and experts carefully studied U.S. dominance of the information field during and after the cold war with the Soviet Union and are now employing the lessons they learned into their own county's mounting challenge to United States. This book will interest military officials, defense industry managers, policy experts in academic think tanks, and students of national security. It provides a sober view of how artificial intelligence will be turned against itself in the new information war.