The objective of this paper is to review the Fund's thinking about signaling since its inception, with a view to drawing lessons for the design of possible signaling mechanisms. Over the years, the Fund has both reflected on the ways in which its main activities - especially surveillance and use of Fund resources (UFR) - send signals, and has created instruments for the express purpose of signaling. Overall, attempts to 'design' signaling mechanisms have been less than fully successful. This paper attempts to elucidate why, drawing primarily on the Fund's own thinking and assessments.

In the context of the ongoing review of Fund facilities, this paper examines the analytical basis for Fund lending in emerging market countries and provides a broad-ranging perspective for reforming the General Resources Account (GRA) lending toolkit. The Fund’s important lending role in crisis prevention and resolution is buttressed by its unique characteristics: (i) its ability as a nonatomistic lender to provide large-scale financing and reduce the likelihood of a run by private creditors; (ii) its ability as a cooperative institution with near-universal membership to agree conditionality with members, thus providing national authorities with a policy commitment tool to underpin confidence and catalyze private lending; and (iii) its de facto preferred creditor status, which allows it to provide crisis financing when private creditors may be reluctant to lend.

This paper explores how the Fund's instruments and practices might be adapted to support sound policies in low-income members, in particular those that do not have a need or want to use Fund resources.

The modern financial industry has been required to deal with large and diverse portfolios in a variety of asset classes often with limited market data available. Financial Signal Processing and Machine Learning unifies a number of recent advances made in signal processing and machine learning for the design and management of investment portfolios and financial engineering. This book bridges the gap between these disciplines, offering the latest information on key topics including characterizing statistical dependence and correlation in high dimensions, constructing effective and robust risk measures, and their use in portfolio optimization and rebalancing. The book focuses on signal processing approaches to model return, momentum, and mean reversion, addressing theoretical and implementation aspects. It highlights the connections between portfolio theory, sparse learning and compressed sensing, sparse eigen-portfolios, robust optimization, non-Gaussian data-driven risk measures, graphical models, causal analysis through temporal-causal modeling, and large-scale copula-based approaches. Key features: Highlights signal processing and machine learning as key approaches to quantitative finance. Offers advanced mathematical tools for high-dimensional portfolio construction, monitoring, and post-trade analysis problems. Presents portfolio theory, sparse learning and compressed sensing, sparsity methods for investment portfolios. including eigen-portfolios, model return, momentum, mean reversion and non-Gaussian data-driven risk measures with real-world applications of these techniques. Includes contributions from leading researchers and practitioners in both the signal and information processing communities, and the quantitative finance community.

Ever since Darwin, animal behavior has intrigued and perplexed human observers. The elaborate mating rituals, lavish decorative displays, complex songs, calls, dances and many other forms of animal signaling raise fascinating questions. To what degree can animals communicate within their own species and even between species? What evolutionary purpose do such communications serve? Perhaps most importantly, what can animal signaling tell us about our own non-verbal forms of communication? In The Handicap Principle, Amotz and Ashivag Zahavi offer a unifying theory that brilliantly explains many previously baffling aspects of animal signaling and holds up a mirror in which ordinary human behaviors take on surprising new significance. The wide-ranging implications of the Zahavis' new theory make it arguably the most important advance in animal behavior in decades. Based on 20 years of painstaking observation, the Handicap Principle illuminates an astonishing variety of signaling behaviors in animals ranging from ants and ameba to peacocks and gazelles. Essentially, the theory asserts that for animal signals to be effective they must be reliable, and to be reliable they must impose a cost, or handicap, on the signaler. When a gazelle sights a wolf, for instance, and jumps high into the air several times before fleeing, it is signaling, in a reliable way, that it is in tip-top condition, easily able to outrun the wolf. (A human parallel occurs in children's games of tag, where faster children will often taunt their pursuer before running). By momentarily handicapping itself--expending precious time and energy in this display--the gazelle underscores the truthfulness of its signal. Such signaling, the authors suggest, serves the interests of both predator and prey, sparing each the exhaustion of a pointless chase. Similarly, the enormous cost a peacock incurs by carrying its elaborate and weighty tail-feathers, which interfere with food gathering, reliably communicates its value as a mate able to provide for its offspring. Perhaps the book's most important application of the Handicap Principle is to the evolutionary enigma of animal altruism. The authors convincingly demonstrate that when an animal acts altruistically, it handicaps itself--assumes a risk or endures a sacrifice--not primarily to benefit its kin or social group but to increase its own prestige within the group and thus signal its status as a partner or rival. Finally, the Zahavis' show how many forms of non-verbal communication among humans can also be explained by the Handicap Principle. Indeed, the authors suggest that non-verbal signals--tones of voice, facial expressions, body postures--are quite often more reliable indicators of our intentions than is language. Elegantly written, exhaustively researched, and consistently enlivened by equal measures of insight and example, The Handicap Principle illuminates virtually every kind of animal communication. It not only allows us to hear what animals are saying to each other--and to understand why they are saying it--but also to see the enormously important role non-verbal behavior plays in human communication.

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

Calcium signaling contains a unique selection of chapters that cover a wide range of contemporary topics in this ubiquitous and diverse system of cell signaling. This book has the flavor of a primary text book, but it is much more than that. It covers topics ranging from the fundamental aspects of calcium signaling to its clinical implications, in a thoughtful and comprehensive way. It discusses cutting edge researches, and critical issues at depth, and it presents many testable hypotheses for future research. It includes the theoretical and the methodological topics as well as topics related to mathematical modeling, and simulations. If you want to read about calcium signaling in different mammalian cells, oocytes, Zebrafishes, and even in plants, in one and the same book, then this book will not disappoint you. From the beginners to the experts in the field of calcium signaling, everybody will find something useful in this very timely book.

This paper examines the role of IMF-supported programs in crisis prevention; specifically, whether, conditional on an episode of intense market pressures, IMF financial support helps prevent a capital account crisis from developing and, if so, through what channels. In doing so, the paper distinguishes between the seal of approval inherent in IMF support and its financing, evaluates the interaction of IMF support with economic policies, and assesses whether IMF financing has a different impact on the likelihood of a crisis than other forms of liquidity. The main result is that IMF financing helps prevent crises through the liquidity provided (i.e., money matters). However, since the effect holds even after controlling for (gross) foreign exchange reserves, stronger policies and the seal of approval under an IMF supported program must also play a role. Finally, the results suggest that IMF financing as a crisis prevention tool is most effective for an intermediate range of economic fundamentals.