The subprime crisis has shown that the sophisticated risk management models used by banks and insurance companies had serious flaws. Some people even suggest that these models are completely useless. Others claim that the crisis was just an unpredictable accident that was largely amplified by the lack of expertise and even naivety of many investors. This book takes the middle view. It shows that these models have been designed for "tranquil times", when financial markets behave smoothly and efficiently. However, we are living in more and more "turbulent times": large risks materialize much more often than predicted by "normal" models, financial models periodically go through bubbles and crashes. Moreover, financial risks result from the decisions of economic actors who can have incentives to take excessive risks, especially when their remunerations are ill designed. The book provides a clear account of the fundamental hypotheses underlying the most popular models of risk management and show that these hypotheses are flawed. However it shows that simple models can still be useful, provided they are well understood and used with caution.

The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects. These range from the impacts of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change. All this threatens established strategic planning methods.This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. Scholars of scenario thinking and organizational environments will appreciate the authors' conceptual and methodological advances. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.

This book provides an in-depth introduction to knowledge risk management (KRM) as well as methods, tools and cases to address knowledge risk management issues in both the public and private sector. It focuses on the integration of knowledge risks into the holistic risk management of organizations. In addition, this book is accompanied by an external website that includes additional checklists, videos and company cases. The combination of a sound theoretical framework along with practical instruments, tools and ancillary materials makes this book a unique, interactive book for professionals, managers, and executives as well as students, academics and policy makers.

As the economy fluctuates, so does the need for resilient business practices. If organizations can remain strong and steady during difficult times, they will be more fruitful during successful periods as well. Managerial Strategies for Business Sustainability During Turbulent Times is a crucial resource that discusses successful methods and techniques for building sturdy company practices. Featuring pertinent topics such as sustainable supply chains, knowledge management, information sharing, and performance evaluations, this is an ideal scholarly reference source for CEOs, managers, business students, and researchers that would like to discover more unique and engaging ways to build a strong business foundation.

Straightforward playbook for executing world-class strategy for tangible results Designed with three key ideas: leverage the tools that are working, simplify the model, and make the content readable for managers, Managing Performance in Turbulent Times is a road map for the modern strategy manager. Through their simplified execution process the authors—performance management experts—show executives how to get results and execute even in the most difficult conditions. Addresses importance of adaptability to change within today's business environment Explores the environmental turbulence that constantly confounds virtually all organizational systems, with workable solutions Provides a streamlined execution process any organization can use to improve business results Managers need tools to do their jobs better. Filled with proven solutions, this book reveals how to get results through successful strategy execution, presenting a process that will help your organization execute strategy in a simplified, efficient manner.

In today's rapidly changing and increasingly complex business world, successful risk management is the key to survival and success. Business leaders are increasingly facing different kinds of risk, from those traditionally associated with the market- project risks, competitive risks, and currency risks, to a set of new, more hazardous threats. Businesses in the Twenty-First century face a range of global risks. These are having an increasingly large impact on the activities of individual firms. While ten or fifteen years ago, risks flowing from civil unrest, climate change, terrorism or pandemics had a very limited effect on business, this is no longer the case. Risks beyond the control of the firm affect businesses more than ever before. Risk is the business of business, and the fundamental job of executives is to anticipate change and manage it on the basis of an opinion about the future. Those who don't take and manage risks properly lose ground and are eventually driven out.

This fully updated user-friendly second edition will quickly help you get to grips with risk management terms and techniques, and how they relate specifically to the insurance industry. It also demonstrates how Solvency II is already shaping the regulatory agenda and its likely impact on the insurance industry.

Political and financial upheaval is not a new phenomenon – from the tulip bulb bubble in the Netherlands in the seventeenth century to Black Monday in 1987, businesses throughout history have worked to adapt and cope. However, today’s climate is even more fraught with crises, raising the levels of concern for business, society, and governments. It especially poses a challenge for small businesses, who have to learn to cope with this increasingly turbulent environment, dealing with the difficulties and taking advantage of the new opportunities that turbulence can provide. Understanding how resilience capabilities can be developed to promote sustainable business is imperative. This book provides a new paradigm for conceptualizing resilience capabilities and advances current understanding both theoretically and practically in real-world business settings. Examining the processes of resilience during different phases of crisis reveals why businesses either fail, or outperform their counterparts during times of turbulence. Based on in-depth empirical research, researchers and advanced students in small business, strategic management and risk management will find this an invaluable guide to organizational resilience.

Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.

A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions—even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify "Black Swans" and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.