This document is an adjunct to the final report An Integrated Safety Analysis Methodology for Emerging Air Transport Technologies. That report presents the results of our analysis of the problem of simultaneous but independent, approaches of two aircraft on parallel runways (independent approaches on parallel runways, or IAPR). This introductory chapter presents a brief overview and perspective of approaches and methodologies for performing safety analyses for complex systems. Ensuing chapter provide the technical details that underlie the approach that we have taken in performing the safety analysis for the IAPR concept. Babcock, P. and Schor, A. and Rosch, G. Langley Research Center NAS2-14361; RTOP 538-04-14-02...

Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications combines work by leading researchers in engineering, statistics and mathematics who provide innovative methods and solutions for this fast-moving field. Safety and reliability analysis is one of the most multidimensional topics in engineering today. Its rapid development has created many opportunities and challenges for both industrialists and academics, while also completely changing the global design and systems engineering environment. As more modeling tasks can now be undertaken within a computer environment using simulation and virtual reality technologies, this book helps readers understand the number and variety of research studies focusing on this important topic. The book addresses these important recent developments, presenting new theoretical issues that were not previously presented in the literature, along with solutions to important practical problems and case studies that illustrate how to apply the methodology. - Uses case studies from industry practice to explain innovative solutions to real world safety and reliability problems - Addresses the full interdisciplinary range of topics that influence this complex field - Provides brief introductions to important concepts, including stochastic reliability and Bayesian methods

This book provides a solution to “rare event” problems without using the classical theory of reliability and theory of probability. This solution is based on the methodology of risk assessment as “measure of danger” (in keeping with the ICS RAS) and an expert approach to determining systems’ safety indications using Fuzzy Sets methods. Further, the book puts forward a new concept: “Reliability, Risks, and Safety” (RRS). The book’s main goal is to generalize present results and underscore the need to develop an alternative approach to safety level assessment and risk management for technical (aviation) systems in terms of Fuzzy Sets objects, in addition to traditional probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). The concept it proposes incorporates ICAO recommendations regarding proactive system control and the system’s responses to various internal and external disturbances.

The report describes a feasibility analysis of a proposed procedure for conducting instrument approaches to parallel runways spaced less than 5,000 feet apart. A mathematical model which relates collision risk, size of aircraft, relative velocity, nominal separation and flight path variability is used to estimate longitudinal separation minima for various runway spacings less than 5,000 feet apart. Representative estimated values are: 4,000 feet runway spacing - 9,600 feet minimum longitudinal separation between aircraft on approach to adjacent runways; 2,700 feet runway spacing - 14,500 feet minimum longitudinal separation between aircraft on approach to adjacent runways. Some time relationships in the resolution of extreme deviation situations are also examined. Turning an avoiding aircraft from an intersecting course with an intruding aircraft can increase the potential hazard or risk. Considering the separations specified and the assumed times used for detection, clearance delivery, etc., it appeared better, in some cases examined, to allow both of the aircraft to proceed on course without any intervention. More extensive study of deviation situations which include measures of pilot, controller, and equipment complex performance is needed. (Author).

This book illustrates a number of modelling and computational techniques for addressing relevant issues in reliability and risk analysis. In particular, it provides: i) a basic illustration of some methods used in reliability and risk analysis for modelling the stochastic failure and repair behaviour of systems, e.g. the Markov and Monte Carlo simulation methods; ii) an introduction to Genetic Algorithms, tailored to their application for RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) optimization; iii) an introduction to key issues of system reliability and risk analysis, like dependent failures and importance measures; and iv) a presentation of the issue of uncertainty and of the techniques of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis used in support of reliability and risk analysis.The book provides a technical basis for senior undergraduate or graduate courses and a reference for researchers and practitioners in the field of reliability and risk analysis. Several practical examples are included to demonstrate the application of the concepts and techniques in practice.

This book originates from the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Synthesis and Analysis Methods for Safety and Reliability Studies held at Sogesta Conference Centre, Urbino, Italy, 3-14 July 1978. The Institute, co-directed by Prof. E.J. Henley and Dr. G. Volta, was attended by 67 persons from twelve countries. The focus of the Institute was on theoretical and applied aspects of reliability and risk analysis methodologies. The Institute was composed of lectures, workshops and gu~ded discussions. From the large quantity of written material that was used and produced during the Institute, a number of papers introducing the most relevant research results and trends in the field have been selected. The papers have been edited, partly rewritten and rearranged in order to obtain in the end an integrat ed exposition of methods and techniques for reliability analysis and computation of complex systems. The book is divided into four sections which correspond to fairly homogeneous areas from a methodological point of view. Each section is preceded by an introduction prepared by the Editors which aims at helping the readers to put in perspective and appre ciate the contribution of each paper to the subject of the section.

This document is a user manual for operating the PLAND_BLUNDER (PLB) simulation program. This simulation is based on two aircraft approaching parallel runways independently and using parallel Instrument Landing System (ILS) equipment during Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). If an aircraft should deviate from its assigned localizer course toward the opposite runway, this constitutes a blunder which could endanger the aircraft on the adjacent path. The worst case scenario would be if the blundering aircraft were unable to recover and continue toward the adjacent runway. PLAND_BLUNDER is a Monte Carlo-type simulation which employs the events and aircraft positioning during such a blunder situation. The model simulates two aircraft performing parallel ILS approaches using Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or visual procedures. PLB uses a simple movement model and control law in three dimensions (X, Y, Z). The parameters of the simulation inputs and outputs are defined in this document along with a sample of the statistical analysis. This document is the second volume of a two volume set. Volume 1 is a description of the application of the PLB to the analysis of close parallel runway operations. Ebrahimi, Yaghoob S. and Chun, Ken S. Unspecified Center...