Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history Written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.

"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--

“A well researched and well analyzed study of the nature of insurgencies and guerilla warfare” (Military Review). The fighting skills and valor of the US military and its allies haven’t diminished over the past half-century—yet our wars have become more protracted and decisive results more elusive. With only two exceptions—Panama and the Gulf War under the first President Bush—our campaigns have taken on the character of endless slogs without positive results. This fascinating book takes a ground-up look at the problem to assess how our strategic objectives have become divorced from our true capability or imperatives. The book presents a unique examination of the nature of insurgencies and the three major guerrilla wars the United States has fought in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. It is both a theoretical work and one that applies the hard experience of the past five decades to address the issues of today. As such, it also provides a timely and meaningful discussion of America’s current geopolitical position. It starts with the previously close-held casualty estimate for Iraq that The Dupuy Institute compiled in 2004 for the US Department of Defense. Going from the practical to the theoretical, it then discusses a construct for understanding insurgencies and the contexts in which they can be fought. It applies these principles to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam, assessing where the projection of US power can enhance our position and where it merely weakens it. It presents an extensive analysis of insurgencies based upon a unique database of eighty-three post-WWII cases. The book explores what is important to combat and what is not important to resist in insurgencies. It builds a body of knowledge, based upon a half-century’s worth of real-world data, with analysis, not opinion. In these pages, Christopher A. Lawrence, the President of The Dupuy Institute, provides an invaluable guide to how the US can best project its vital power while avoiding the missteps of the recent past. “Provides a unique quantitative historical analysis . . . Logically estimating the outcomes of future military operations, as the author writes, is what US citizens should expect and demand from their leaders who take this country to war.” —Military Review

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Military intervention in a conflict without a reasonable prospect of success is unjustifiable, especially when it is done in the name of humanity. Couched in the debate on the responsibility to protect civilians from violence and drawing on traditional 'just war' principles, the centralpremise of this book is that humanitarian military intervention can be justified as a policy option only if decision makers can be reasonably sure that intervention will do more good than harm. This book asks, 'Have past humanitarian military interventions been successful?' It defines success as saving lives and sets out a methodology for estimating the number of lives saved by a particular military intervention. Analysis of 17 military operations in six conflict areas that were thedefining cases of the 1990s-northern Iraq after the Gulf War, Somalia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Rwanda, Kosovo and East Timor-shows that the majority were successful by this measure. In every conflict studied, however, some military interventions succeeded while others failed, raising the question, 'Why have some past interventions been more successful than others?' This book argues that the central factors determining whether a humanitarian intervention succeeds are theobjectives of the intervention and the military strategy employed by the intervening states. Four types of humanitarian military intervention are offered: helping to deliver emergency aid, protecting aid operations, saving the victims of violence and defeating the perpetrators of violence. Thefocus on strategy within these four types allows an exploration of the political and military dimensions of humanitarian intervention and highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each of the four types.Humanitarian military intervention is controversial. Scepticism is always in order about the need to use military force because the consequences can be so dire. Yet it has become equally controversial not to intervene when a government subjects its citizens to massive violation of their basic humanrights. This book recognizes the limits of humanitarian intervention but does not shy away from suggesting how military force can save lives in extreme circumstances.

This new edition incorporates revised guidance from H.M Treasury which is designed to promote efficient policy development and resource allocation across government through the use of a thorough, long-term and analytically robust approach to the appraisal and evaluation of public service projects before significant funds are committed. It is the first edition to have been aided by a consultation process in order to ensure the guidance is clearer and more closely tailored to suit the needs of users.

Are you buying a car or smartphone or dishwasher? We bet long-term, trouble-free operation (i.e., high reliability) is among the top three things you look for. Reliability problems can lead to everything from minor inconveniences to human disasters. Ensuring high reliability in designing and building manufactured products is principally an engineering challenge–but statistics plays a key role. Achieving Product Reliability explains in a non-technical manner how statistics is used in modern product reliability assurance. Features: Describes applications of statistics in reliability assurance in design, development, validation, manufacturing, and field tracking. Uses real-life examples to illustrate key statistical concepts such as the Weibull and lognormal distributions, hazard rate, and censored data. Demonstrates the use of graphical tools in such areas as accelerated testing, degradation data modeling, and repairable systems data analysis. Presents opportunities for profitably applying statistics in the era of Big Data and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) utilizing, for example, the instantaneous transmission of large quantities of field data. Whether you are an intellectually curious citizen, student, manager, budding reliability professional, or academician seeking practical applications, Achieving Product Reliability is a great starting point for a big-picture view of statistics in reliability assurance. The authors are world-renowned experts on this topic with extensive experience as company-wide statistical resources for a global conglomerate, consultants to business and government, and researchers of statistical methods for reliability applications.

Statistics and Health Care Fraud: How to Save Billions helps the public to become more informed citizens through discussions of real world health care examples and fraud assessment applications. The author presents statistical and analytical methods used in health care fraud audits without requiring any mathematical background. The public suffers from health care overpayments either directly as patients or indirectly as taxpayers, and fraud analytics provides ways to handle the large size and complexity of these claims. The book starts with a brief overview of global healthcare systems such as U.S. Medicare. This is followed by a discussion of medical overpayments and assessment initiatives using a variety of real world examples. The book covers subjects as: • Description and visualization of medical claims data • Prediction of fraudulent transactions • Detection of excessive billings • Revealing new fraud patterns • Challenges and opportunities with health care fraud analytics Dr. Tahir Ekin is the Brandon Dee Roberts Associate Professor of Quantitative Methods in McCoy College of Business, Texas State University. His previous work experience includes a working as a statistician on health care fraud detection. His scholarly work on health care fraud has been published in a variety of academic journals including International Statistical Review, The American Statistician, and Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. He is a recipient of the Texas State University 2018 Presidential Distinction Award in Scholar Activities and the ASA/NISS y-Bis 2016 Best Paper Awards. He has developed and taught courses in the areas of business statistics, optimization, data mining and analytics. Dr. Ekin also serves as Vice President of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics.

Nearly 1.9 million U.S. troops have been deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq since October 2001. Many service members and veterans face serious challenges in readjusting to normal life after returning home. This initial book presents findings on the most critical challenges, and lays out the blueprint for the second phase of the study to determine how best to meet the needs of returning troops and their families.

Public programs are designed to reach certain goals and beneficiaries. Methods to understand whether such programs actually work, as well as the level and nature of impacts on intended beneficiaries, are main themes of this book.