From two leading experts, a revolutionary new way to think about and measure aging. Aging is a complex phenomenon. We usually think of chronological age as a benchmark, but it is actually a backward way of defining lifespan. It tells us how long we’ve lived so far, but what about the rest of our lives? In this pathbreaking book, Warren C. Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov provide a new way to measure individual and population aging. Instead of counting how many years we’ve lived, we should think about the number of years we have left, our “prospective age.” Two people who share the same chronological age probably have different prospective ages, because one will outlive the other. Combining their forward-thinking measure of our remaining years with other health metrics, Sanderson and Scherbov show how we can generate better demographic estimates, which inform better policies. Measuring prospective age helps make sense of observed patterns of survival, reorients understanding of health in old age, and clarifies the burden of old-age dependency. The metric also brings valuable data to debates over equitable intergenerational pensions. Sanderson and Scherbov’s pioneering model has already been adopted by the United Nations. Prospective Longevity offers us all an opportunity to rethink aging, so that we can make the right choices for our societal and economic health.

During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages-cancer and cardiovascular disease-available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which-unlike randomized controlled trials-are subject to many biases.

Long, productive lives are the destiny of most of us, not just the privilege of our great-grandchildren. The story of aging is not one of steady decline and decay; we need a new narrative based on solid research, not scare stories. Today Americans enjoy a new, healthy stage of life, between roughly 65 and 79, during which we are staying engaged in the workplace, starting new relationships and careers, remaining creative and becoming entrepreneurs and job creators. We are in the midst of a major paradigm shift in the way we live. Our major milestones are shifting. The definition of “normal” behavior is changing. Today, we marry later or not at all; cohabitation is not just a stepping stone to marriage, but a long-term arrangement for many. Women often have their first child in their 40s, and increasingly before they marry. People enjoy active sex lives well into their 6th, 7th or even 8th decades. None of our institutions will remain the same. People are working longer, and given the declining birth rate, older workers will be in great demand. Four generations are increasingly working side by side, learning from each other. But we must ensure that the benefits of long life are not limited to a wealthy few. The Age of Longevity shows how we as a society can embrace the life-altering changes that are either coming in the near future or are already underway. The authors give readers a panoramic view of how they, the institutions that affect them, and the country as a whole will need to adapt to what’s ahead. They offer strategies, based on cutting-edge research, that will enable individuals, institutions, companies, and governments to make the most of our lengthening life spans. Using real life examples throughout, the authors paint a picture of what our new longer lives will look like, and the changes that need to be made so we can all make those years both more productive and more enjoyable.

"Revised and updated."--P. [4] of cover.

Just as the health costs of aging threaten to bankrupt developed countries, this book makes the scientific case that a biological "bailout" could be on the way, and that human aging can be different in the future than it is today. Here 40 authors argue how our improving understanding of the biology of aging and selected technologies should enable the successful use of many different and complementary methods for ameliorating aging, and why such interventions are appropriate based on our current historical, anthropological, philosophical, ethical, evolutionary, and biological context. Challenging concepts are presented together with in-depth reviews and paradigm-breaking proposals that collectively illustrate the potential for changing aging as never before. The proposals extend from today to a future many decades from now in which the control of aging may become effectively complete. Examples include sirtuin-modulating pills, new concepts for attacking cardiovascular disease and cancer, mitochondrial rejuvenation, stem cell therapies and regeneration, tissue reconstruction, telomere maintenance, prevention of immunosenescence, extracellular rejuvenation, artificial DNA repair, and full deployment of nanotechnology. The Future of Aging will make you think about aging differently and is a challenge to all of us to open our eyes to the future therapeutic potential of biogerontology.

How do some people avoid the slowing down, deteriorating, and weakening that plagues many of their peers decades earlier? Are they just lucky? Or do they know something the rest of us don’t? Is it possible to grow older without getting sicker? What if you could look and feel fifty through your eighties and nineties? Founder of the Institute for Aging Research at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and one of the leading pioneers of longevity research, Dr. Nir Barzilai’s life’s work is tackling the challenges of aging to delay and prevent the onset of all age-related diseases including “the big four”: diabetes, cancer, heart disease, and Alzheimer’s. One of Dr. Barzilai’s most fascinating studies features volunteers that include 750 SuperAgers—individuals who maintain active lives well into their nineties and even beyond—and, more importantly, who reached that ripe old age never having experienced cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, or cognitive decline. In Age Later, Dr. Barzilai reveals the secrets his team has unlocked about SuperAgers and the scientific discoveries that show we can mimic some of their natural resistance to the aging process. This eye-opening and inspirational book will help you think of aging not as a certainty, but as a phenomenon—like many other diseases and misfortunes—that can be targeted, improved, and even cured.

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

A NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “Brilliant and enthralling.”​ —The Wall Street Journal A paradigm-shifting book from an acclaimed Harvard Medical School scientist and one of Time’s most influential people. It’s a seemingly undeniable truth that aging is inevitable. But what if everything we’ve been taught to believe about aging is wrong? What if we could choose our lifespan? In this groundbreaking book, Dr. David Sinclair, leading world authority on genetics and longevity, reveals a bold new theory for why we age. As he writes: “Aging is a disease, and that disease is treatable.” This eye-opening and provocative work takes us to the frontlines of research that is pushing the boundaries on our perceived scientific limitations, revealing incredible breakthroughs—many from Dr. David Sinclair’s own lab at Harvard—that demonstrate how we can slow down, or even reverse, aging. The key is activating newly discovered vitality genes, the descendants of an ancient genetic survival circuit that is both the cause of aging and the key to reversing it. Recent experiments in genetic reprogramming suggest that in the near future we may not just be able to feel younger, but actually become younger. Through a page-turning narrative, Dr. Sinclair invites you into the process of scientific discovery and reveals the emerging technologies and simple lifestyle changes—such as intermittent fasting, cold exposure, exercising with the right intensity, and eating less meat—that have been shown to help us live younger and healthier for longer. At once a roadmap for taking charge of our own health destiny and a bold new vision for the future of humankind, Lifespan will forever change the way we think about why we age and what we can do about it.

The Upside of Aging: How Long Life Is Changing the World of Health, Work, Innovation, Policy and Purpose explores a titanic shift that will alter every aspect of human existence, from the jobs we hold to the products we buy to the medical care we receive - an aging revolution underway across America and the world. Moving beyond the stereotypes of dependency and decline that have defined older age, The Upside of Aging reveals the vast opportunity and potential of this aging phenomenon, despite significant policy and societal challenges that must be addressed. The book’s chapter authors, all prominent thought-leaders, point to a reinvention and reimagination of our older years that have critical implications for people of all ages. With a positive call to action, the book illuminates the upside for health and wellness, work and volunteerism, economic growth, innovation and education. The authors, like the baby boom generation itself, posit new ways of thinking about aging, as longevity and declining birthrates put the world on track for a mature population of unprecedented size and significance. Among topics they examine are: The emotional intelligence and qualities of the aging brain that science is uncovering, “senior moments” notwithstanding. The new worlds of genomics, medicine and technology that are revolutionizing health care and wellness. The aging population’s massive impact on global markets, with enormous profit potential from an explosion in products and services geared toward mature consumers. New education paradigms to meet the needs and aspirations of older people, and to capitalize on their talents. The benefits that aging workers and entrepreneurs bring to companies, and the crucial role of older people in philanthropy and society. Tools and policies to facilitate financial security for longer and more purposeful lives. Infrastructure and housing changes to create livable cities for all ages, enabling “aging in place” and continuing civic contribution from millions of older adults. The opportunities and potential for intergenerational engagement and collaboration. The Upside of Aging defines a future that differs profoundly from the retirement dreams of our parents and grandparents, one that holds promise and power and bears the stamp of a generation that has changed every stage of life through which it has moved.