This new edition gives project managers practical methods and tools to make the right decisions while juggling multiple objectives, risks and uncertainties, and stakeholders. Project management requires you to navigate a maze of multiple and complex decisions that are an everyday part of the job. To be effective, you must know how to make rational choices with your projects, what processes can help to improve these choices, and what tools are available to help you with decision-making. An entertaining and easy-to-read guide to a structured project decision-making process, Project Decisions will help you identify risks and perform basic quantitative and qualitative risk and decision analyses. Lev Virine and Michael Trumper use their understanding of basic human psychology to show you how to use event chain methodology, establish creative business environments, and estimate project time and costs. Each phase of the process is described in detail, including a review of both its psychological aspects and quantitative methods.

Decision analysis (DA) guides executives toward logical, consistent decisions under uncertainty. This book instructs readers in applying DA to feasibility analysis, project estimation, and project risk management.This is a wholly rewritten and expanded successor to the best-selling first and second editions.The entire investment lifecycle is covered, from conception, to the project plan, to the post-project review, and to a look-back analysis of the capital investment decision.DA applies to all manner of project management (PM) decisions for individuals, government, and non-profit organizations. The book uses a business investment perspective and assumes that maximizing value for the project owner is the objective.DA is a problem-solving process. There are four key features: 1) probabilities and probability distributions express best judgments about risks and uncertainties. 2) The organization has a decision policy expressed as a single metric (the objective function). 3) Probabilities and outcome values combine in the probability-weighting expected value calculation. 4) The organization as a policy to choose the best expected value alternative.This book aims to make decision making clear, simple, and logical. A clear decision policy can be elusive, and the author offers suggestions for making trade-offs among conflicting objectives. Converting the three pillars of project management (cost, schedule, and performance) into project value equivalents makes the trade-offs clear.This book is intended for serious PM students and practitioners. This is an essential concepts and how-to book. The scope is quantitative analysis, from project inception to post-project review. Project cost and schedule modeling, in modest detail, is essential to feasibility analysis and risk management. A general background in PM and corporate planning will be helpful. The methods are quantitative and straightforward. The reader should be comfortable with basic algebra and Microsoft(r) Excel(r).The book has eight pages of Suggested Reading annotated references (plus footnote additions), over 250 figures, approximately 600 Glossary definitions, and over 2400 Index entries. Online supplements include several whitepapers and other documents, example calculation spreadsheets, detailed color images of several important figures, four videos (including a critical chain simulation), and the Utility Elicitation Program (a web app, free for most users).Key topics include: Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation for calculating outcome distributions and expected values * Probability concepts, including Bayes' rule for value of information analysis * Popular probability distribution types and when they apply * Eliciting expert judgments, with attention to potential cognitive and motivational biases * Recognizing the three pillars project in terms of project value * A 10-step decision analysis process * Project modeling concepts and techniques, with special attention to risk drivers and other correlations * Deterministic and stochastic sensitivity analysis * Decision policy that distinguishes objectives, time value, and risk attitude * @RISK(r) with Microsoft(r) Project for project simulations under uncertainty * Logical, consistent risk policy expressed as a utility function * Merge bias when task chains converge at a merge point * Tail estimate bias when estimating highly uncertain quantities * Optimizer's curse, a portfolio forecasting bias * Winner's curse, a bias characteristic of auctions * Using the best of critical chain and Monte Carlo simulation * Stochastic variance between a deterministic and a stochastic model * Modeling risk and uncertainty using probabilities, probability distributions, explicit formula relationships, correlation coefficients, risk drivers, conditional branching, and rework cycles.

Project management is the art of making the right decisions. To be effective as a project manager, you must know how to make rational choices in project management, what processes can help you to improve these choices, and what tools are available to help you through the decision-making process. Project Decisions: The Art and Science is an entertaining and easy-to-read guide to a structured project decision analysis process. This valuable text presents the basics of cognitive psychology and quantitative analysis methods to help project managers make better decisions. Examples that portray different projects, real-life stories, and popular culture will help readers acquire the essential knowledge and skills required for effective project decision-making. Readers will be able to: •Understand psychological pitfalls related to project management •Establish a creative business environment in their organization •Identify project risks and uncertainties •Develop estimates of project time and cost based on an understanding of human psychology •Perform basic quantitative and qualitative risk and decision analysis •Use event chain methodology in managing projects •Communicate the results of decision analysis to decision-makers •Review project decisions and perform adaptive project management •Establish a project decision analysis process in their organization PLUS — Test your own judgment through a quiz that examines your intuition!

Before You Put the First Shovel in the Ground—This Book Could Be the Difference Between a Successful Mining Operation and a Money Pit Opening a successful new mine is a vastly complex undertaking, entailing several years and millions to billions of dollars. In today’s world, when environmental and labor policies, regulatory compliance, and the impact of the community must be factored in, you cannot afford to make a mistake. The Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration has created this road map for you. Written by two hands-on, in-the-trenches mining project managers with decades of experience bringing some of the world’s most successful, profitable mines into operation on time, within budget, and ethically, Project Management for Mining gives you step-by-step instructions in every process you are likely to encounter. It is in use as course material in universities in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Ghana, Iran, Kazakhstan, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, as well as the United States. In addition, more than 100 different mining companies have sent employees to attend seminars conducted by authors Robin Hickson and Terry Owen, sessions all based around the material within this book. In the years following the first edition, the authors gratefully received a bevy of excellent suggestions from some 2,000 readers in over 50 countries. This helpful reader feedback, coupled with written evaluations from the more than 400 seminar attendees, has been an unparalleled source of improvement for this new book. This second edition is a significant accomplishment that includes 5 new chapters, substantial updates to the original 34 chapters, and 56 new or updated figures, flowcharts, and checklists that every project manager can use.

An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

You’ve spent years gathering the technical intelligence you need for this challenging career--now separate yourself from the pack by increasing your emotional intelligence! As recent research has indicated that emotional intelligence (EI) now accounts for 70 to 80 percent of management success, there is no doubt that today’s successful project manager needs strong interpersonal skills and the ability to recognize emotional cues to lead their teams to success--the technical expertise the position depended on so greatly in the past simply isn’t enough anymore! Emotional Intelligence for Project Managers introduces you to all facets of EI and shows how emotions can be leveraged to meet project goals. Project managers strong in technical skills but needing help in the EI department will learn how to: Set the tone and direction for the project Communicate effectively Motivate, inspire, and engage their team Encourage flexibility and collaboration Deal productively with stress, criticism, and change Establish the kind of high morale that attracts top performers Now in its second edition, Emotional Intelligence for Project Managers includes several expanded sections on self-awareness and self-management, as well as a new chapter on using EI to lead Agile Teams and a close look at Servant Leadership.

Effective decisions are crucial to the success of any software project, but to make better decisions you need a better decision-making process. In Evaluating Project Decisions, leading project management experts introduce an innovative decision model that helps you tailor your decision-making process to systematically evaluate all of your decisions and avoid the bad choices that lead to project failure. Using a real-world, case study approach, the authors show how to evaluate software project problems and situations more effectively, thoughtfully assess your alternatives, and improve the decisions you make. Drawing on their own extensive research and experience, the authors bridge software engineering theory and practice, offering guidance that is both well-grounded and actionable. They present dozens of detailed examples from both successful and unsuccessful projects, illustrating what to do and what not to do. Evaluating Project Decisions will help you to analyze your options and ultimately make better decisions at every stage in your project, including: Requirements–Elicitation, description, verification, validation, negotiation, contracting, and management over the software life cycle Estimates–Conceptual solution design, decomposition, resource and overhead allocation, estimate construction, and change management Planning–Defining objectives, policies, and scope; planning tasks, milestones, schedules, budgets, staff and other resources; and managing projects against plans Product–Proper product definition, development process management, QA, configuration management, delivery, installation, training, and field service Process–Defining, selecting, understanding, teaching, and measuring processes; evaluating process performance; and process improvement or optimization In addition, you will see how to evaluate decisions related to risk, people, stakeholder expectations, and global development. Simply put, you’ll use what you learn here on every project, in any industry, whatever your goals, and for projects of any duration, size, or type.

From the author of the best-selling PMP®: Project Management Professional Study Guide comes this challenging collection of practice tests designed to help reinforce your understanding of key exam topics. The complex scenario-based questions will test your ability to synthesize the wide array of information covered within the six PMP performance domains. Use in conjunction with the Sybex Study Guide, or as a supplement to any PMP study program, and approach the exam with confidence. Covers all six performance domains: Project Initiation Project Planning Project Execution Project Control Project Closing Professional Responsibility (PMI, PMP and Project Management Professional are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.)

The most comprehensive, up-to-date construction project management system Fully revised for the latest technologies and standards, Total Construction Project Management, Second Edition provides a proven framework for completing construction jobs as specified, on schedule, and within budget. You’ll learn how to plan, organize, and control each stage of a project—from initiation to close-out. This updated edition integrates important new trends, such as technological interoperability, seamless electronic information exchange, Building Information Modeling (BIM), and sustainable building practices. Real-world case studies and customizable sample construction documents are included in this practical guide. Inside, you’ll find field-tested methods for: Preparing project bids and proposals Negotiating contracts Project planning and initiation Scheduling construction Estimating, budgeting and cost control Project organization and control Construction project execution Integrating the latest technologies, including BIM and electronic information exchange Green building and sustainable construction Construction safety and health Project communications Managing human factors

Keep Control of your Large, Complex Projects. Proper Cost Control and Forecasting must support the Project Manager's decision making; unfortunately, that is still rarely the case. This handbook explains how to improve significantly the odds of maintaining projects under control and taking the right decisions at the right time.