July 1998 Social protection systems in the transition economies have been inadequate to meet the challenges of transition, being both costly and poorly targeted. The largest group of poor people is the working poor-especially workers with little education (primary education or less) or outdated vocational or technical education. Grootaert and Braithwaite compare poverty in three Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland) with poverty in three countries of the former Soviet Union (Estonia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Russia). They find striking differences between the post-Soviet and Eastern European experiences with poverty and targeting. Among patterns detected: * Poverty in Eastern Europe is significantly lower than in former Soviet Union countries. * Rural poverty is greater than urban poverty. * In Eastern Europe there is a strong correlation between poverty incidence and the number of children in a household; in the former Soviet Union countries this is less pronounced, except in Russia. * There is a gender and age dimension to poverty in some countries. In single-person households, especially of elderly women, the poverty rate is very high (except in Poland) and poverty is more severe. The same is true in pensioner households (except in Poland). In Poland the pension system has adequate reach. * Poverty rates are highest among people who have lost their connection with the labor market and live on social transfers (other than pensions) or other nonearned income. But through sheer mass, the largest group of poor people is the working poor-especially workers with little education (primary education or less) or outdated vocational or technical education. Only those with special skills or university education escape poverty in great numbers, thanks to the demand for their skills from the newly emerging private sector. * The poverty gap is remarkably uniform in Eastern European countries, especially Hungary and Poland, suggesting that social safety nets have prevented the emergence of deep pockets of poverty. This is much less true in the former Soviet Union, where those with the highest poverty rate also have the largest poverty gap. In the short to medium term, creating employment in the informal sector will generate a larger payoff than creating jobs in the formal (still to be privatized) sector, so programs to help (prospective) entrepreneurs should take center stage in poverty alleviation programs. This paper is a joint product of the Social Development Department and Europe and Central Asia, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Poverty and Targeting of Social Assistance in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (RPO 680-33). The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected].

Introduction: Transition from communism - qualified success or utter catastrophe? -- The plan for a J-curve transition -- Plan meets reality -- Modifying the framework -- Counter-narratives of catastrophe -- Where have all the people gone? -- The mortality crisis -- Collapse in fertility -- Outmigration crisis -- Disappointment with transition -- Public opinion of winners and losers -- Evaluations shift over time -- Towards a new social contract? -- Portraits of desperation -- Resistance is futile -- Return to the past -- The patriotism of despair -- Conclusion: Towards an inclusive prosperity.

World Bank Technical Paper No. 394. Joint Forest Management (JFM) has emerged as an important intervention in the management of Indias forest resources. This report sets out an analytical method for examining the costs and benefits of JFM arrangements. Two pilot case studies in which the method was used demonstrate interesting outcomes regarding incentives for various groups to participate. The main objective of this study is to develop a better understanding of the incentives for communities to participate in JFM.

This study addresses the experience of, and responses to poverty in a range of transition economies including Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Slovenia, Uzbekistan, Romania, Albania and Macedonia. It covers topics such as the definition of poverty lines and the measurement of poverty; the role of income-in-kind in supporting families; homelessness and destitution; housing; the design, targeting and administration of welfare; and personal responses to economic transition.

Europe has become a dominant frame for the generation, regulation and perception of social inequalities. This trend was solidified by the current economic crisis, which is characterized by increasing inequalities between central and peripheral countries and groups. By analysing the double polarization between winners and losers of the crisis, the segmentation of labour markets and the perceived quality of life in Europe, this book contributes to a better understanding of patterns and dynamics of inequality in an integrated Europe.

Targeted Social Assistance of Georgia is a last-resort social program that is considered a best practice among programs based on proxy means testing (PMT). It achieves high targeting accuracy for a relatively high level of poverty incidence. In 2013, the government of Georgia embarked on the revision of this program to ensure its continued effectiveness and to revise some of the parameters of the eligibility formula that could be subject to manipulation. In particular, the government was concerned about the subjective evaluation of social agents and about concealable goods giving room to abuses in terms of program eligibility. Continuous Improvement: Strengthening Georgia’s Targeted Social Assistance Program assesses the technical work and the policy actions taken by the Georgian government during 2014 and 2015. It covers the full cycle of the reform of a social assistance program, from establishing the objectives to the design of compensation measures that minimize the number of newly ineligible beneficiaries. In particular, it describes the revision of the PMT formula, the introduction of a scheme of benefits that decreases with the score and an associated assistance program for children, the pretesting of the new formula, and the design of compensation measures. The report also includes a chapter with specific recommendations for Georgia to consider in its efforts to improve its system of social protection and labor.

"Formal pension systems are an important means of reducing poverty among the aged. In recent years, however, pension reform has become a pressing matter, as demographic aging, poor administration, early retirement, and unaffordable benefits have strained pension balances and overall public finances. Pension systems have become a source of macroeconomic instability, a constraint to economic growth, and an ineffective and/or inequitable provider of retirement income."

July 1998 A social program that relies partly on geographic decentralization for placement provides indicators helpful for identifying the program's impact on welfare. An assessment of the welfare gains from a targeted social program can be seriously biased unless it takes proper account of the endogeneity of program participation. Bias comes from two sources of placement endogeneity: the purposive targeting of the geographic areas to receive the program, and the targeting of individual recipients within selected areas. Decentralization of program placement decisions is common, because of the administrative cost of centralized placement decisions and the fact that local groups and governments are likely to be better informed about who most needs help. But full decentralization is uncommon; the center typically retains control of broad geographic targeting. Ravallion and Wodon argue that partial decentralization of program placement decisions creates control and instrumental variables useful for identifying program benefits. The central allocation to a local level of government is presumably based on observable indicators. The central allocation will also influence the allocation to an individual but is unlikely to determine outcomes at the individual level conditional on individual program participation. So with suitable controls for the welfare-relevant geographic characteristics determining program placement decisions, the center's allocation across areas can be used as an instrumental variable for individual participation. The authors use Bangladesh's Food for Education program to illustrate their approach. A single post-intervention cross-sectional household survey was used to identify the impact of the program on school attendance, using geographic placement at the village level as an instrument for individual program placement. To deal with bias from the endogeneity of village selection, the authors used a detailed community survey coordinated with the household survey to control for likely sources of heterogeneity in geographicinfluences on school attendance, consistent with prior information on how the government targeted the program geographically. They found that the programs had significant and sizable impacts on school attendance. At mean points, the program's incentive increased attendance by 24 percent of the maximum feasible days of schooling. A regression estimator ignoring the purposive program placement was found to result in a substantial underestimation of the program's impact. Indeed, the simplest possible control group method-assuming that nonparticipants provide a valid counterfactual-performed much better than a regression method treating placement as exogenous. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to evaluate the impact of social programs. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Policies for Poor Areas (RPO 681-39). Martin Ravallion may be contacted at [email protected].