This guide provides a wide-ranging selection of illuminating, informative and entertaining problems, together with their solution. Topics include modelling and many applications of probability theory.

This third edition is a revised, updated, and greatly expanded version of previous edition of 2001. The 1300+ exercises contained within are not merely drill problems, but have been chosen to illustrate the concepts, illuminate the subject, and both inform and entertain the reader. A broad range of subjects is covered, including elementary aspects of probability and random variables, sampling, generating functions, Markov chains, convergence, stationary processes, renewals, queues, martingales, diffusions, L�vy processes, stability and self-similarity, time changes, and stochastic calculus including option pricing via the Black-Scholes model of mathematical finance. The text is intended to serve students as a companion for elementary, intermediate, and advanced courses in probability, random processes and operations research. It will also be useful for anyone needing a source for large numbers of problems and questions in these fields. In particular, this book acts as a companion to the authors' volume, Probability and Random Processes, fourth edition (OUP 2020).

This textbook provides a wide-ranging and entertaining indroduction to probability and random processes and many of their practical applications. It includes many exercises and problems with solutions.

The author, the founder of the Greek Statistical Institute, has based this book on the two volumes of his Greek edition which has been used by over ten thousand students during the past fifteen years. It can serve as a companion text for an introductory or intermediate level probability course. Those will benefit most who have a good grasp of calculus, yet, many others, with less formal mathematical background can also benefit from the large variety of solved problems ranging from classical combinatorial problems to limit theorems and the law of iterated logarithms. It contains 329 problems with solutions as well as an addendum of over 160 exercises and certain complements of theory and problems.

Suitable for self study Use real examples and real data sets that will be familiar to the audience Introduction to the bootstrap is included – this is a modern method missing in many other books

Now available in a fully revised and updated second edition, this well established textbook provides a straightforward introduction to the theory of probability. The presentation is entertaining without any sacrifice of rigour; important notions are covered with the clarity that the subject demands. Topics covered include conditional probability, independence, discrete and continuous random variables, basic combinatorics, generating functions and limit theorems, and an introduction to Markov chains. The text is accessible to undergraduate students and provides numerous worked examples and exercises to help build the important skills necessary for problem solving.

This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. There is an account of moment generating functions and their applications. The following three chapters are about branching processes, random walks, and continuous-time random processes such as the Poisson process. The final chapter is a fairly extensive account of Markov chains in discrete time. This second edition develops the success of the first edition through an updated presentation, the extensive new chapter on Markov chains, and a number of new sections to ensure comprehensive coverage of the syllabi at major universities.

Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.

This third edition is a revised, updated, and greatly expanded version of previous edition of 2001. The 1300+ exercises contained within are not merely drill problems, but have been chosen to illustrate the concepts, illuminate the subject, and both inform and entertain the reader. A broad range of subjects is covered, including elementary aspects of probability and random variables, sampling, generating functions, Markov chains, convergence, stationary processes, renewals, queues, martingales, diffusions, Lévy processes, stability and self-similarity, time changes, and stochastic calculus including option pricing via the Black-Scholes model of mathematical finance. The text is intended to serve students as a companion for elementary, intermediate, and advanced courses in probability, random processes and operations research. It will also be useful for anyone needing a source for large numbers of problems and questions in these fields. In particular, this book acts as a companion to the authors' volume, Probability and Random Processes, fourth edition (OUP 2020).