The Office for Budget Responsibility reports that the UK economy has picked up more strongly in 2013 than expected in its March forecast. Private consumption and housing investment have grown whilst business investment and net trade continue to disappoint. The forecast for GDP growth in 2013 is revised up to 1.4 per cent, but this is not expected to be maintained in 2014 as productivity and real earnings growth remain weak. The positive growth is judged to be cyclical, reducing the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than indicating stronger underlying growth potential. Productivity-driven growth in real earnings is necessary to sustain the recovery and the outlook for productivity growth is the key uncertainty. Nevertheless, the forecast for growth in 2014 is now 2.4 per cent. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) - the gap between what the Government spends and raises in revenue - is forecast to be £111.2 billion this year, £8.6 billion lower than the March forecast and £3.8 billion lower than in 2012-13. Underlying PSNB is estimated to have fallen by a third between 2009-10 and 2012-13, the pace of reduction slowing in 2012-13. The employment forecast is now expected to reach 31.2 million in 2018, with unemployment falling steadily over the coming years, reaching 7 per cent in mid-2015 and 6 per cent by the end of 2017. CPI inflation is forecast to fall back to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target during 2016 whilst house price inflation is revised upwards, expected to be above 5 per cent in 2014 and 7 per cent in 2015.

Around 43% of departmental expenditure limits are ring-fenced. As a consequence, public expenditure control - on the scale required to address the deficit - will be increasingly difficult. While ring-fencing reflects public priorities, those preferences are not equally strongly held for all ring-fenced areas. Support for the 33.5% cumulative real increase in aid over the course of this Parliament, for example, appears to be lower than for health and schools. The Committee also remains concerned about the impact of the Government's Help to Buy: Mortgage guarantee scheme. An abrupt end to the scheme could distort the market, as could announcements which radically alter people's expectations. Forecasts of additional revenue from many anti-avoidance measures are inherently extremely uncertain. The Committee warned in its report on the Autumn Statement 2012 that the forecast revenues from the UK-Swiss agreement - at £5.3 billion - were subject to uncertainty and that the proceeds may not meet expectations. These concerns appear to have been justified. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The OBR should look again at how the Government accounts for projected revenues, based on previous experience. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The more transparency about the yield, and therefore each proposal's effectiveness, the better

What's gone wrong with capitalism and how should governments respond? What does the future hold for the Left in the UK in the face of the austerity straitjacket around our politics and media? Anthony Crosland’s The Future of Socialism (1956) provided a creed for governments of the centre left until the global banking crisis. Now Peter Hain presents an evidence-based case for a radical alternative to the neo-liberal economic agenda. A substantial new Afterword outlines what the Labour Party needs to do following the 2015 UK General Election to win again by returning to its core values of decency, social justice, equality and prosperity for all. A rousing alternative to the neoliberal, right-wing orthodoxy of our era, Hain’s book is now even more essential reading for everyone interested in the future of the left.

Austerity has left local government struggling to meet the demands for local services. In this context, this book asks ‘what are the fundamental principles that should guide decision-making by local councillors and officers?’ It seeks to move the agenda from ‘what works?’ to ‘what should local government do?’ and ‘how will its policies impact on social justice and local democracy?'. Reclaiming local democracy examines the politics of human need and argues that local government should provide a voice for those that lack power. It avoids the dry, familiar debate about what structures and powers local government should have, instead seeking to energise all concerned to re-engage with a political and ethical approach. Written in a persuasive and accessible way, the book examines how local government can develop active citizens and make a difference to the well-being of those in disadvantaged areas – truly 'reclaiming local democracy'. Combining theory and international practice, it will be relevant for councillors, policy officers and activists in the third sector, as well as academics and students in politics and social policy.

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. the Guide is designed to assist balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionnaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

Fourteen years in the making, this is a chronicle of the nearly two-thousand-mile international line between the United States and Mexico. It is an historical account largely through the eyes and experiences of government agents, politicians, soldiers, revolutionaries, outlaws, Indians, engineers, immigrants, developers, illegal aliens, business people, and wayfarers looking for a job. It is essentially the untold story of lines drawn in water, sand, and blood, of an intrepid, durable people, of a civilization whose ebb and flow of history is as significant as any in the world. Award-winning historian Leon Metz takes the reader from America's early westward expansion to today's awesome border problems of water rights, pollution, immigration, illegal aliens, and the massive effort of two nations attempting to pull together for a common cause.

This volume provides insights on the role of trade finance in the 2008-2009 ?Great Trade Collapse" and the subsequent role of governments and institutions to help restore trade finance markets. It is the product of a fruitful collaboration between the World Bank Group, international financial partners, private banks, and academia.