When just a handful of economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis, people should wonder how so many well educated people with enormous datasets and computing power can be so wrong. In this short book Ionut Purica joins a growing number of economists who explore the failings of mainstream economics and propose solutions developed in other disciplines, such as sociology and evolutionary biology. While it might be premature to call for a revolution, Dr. Purica echoes John Maynard Keynes in believing that economic ideas are "dangerous for good or evil." In recent years evil seems to have had the upper hand. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises" points to their ability to do good. - Makes complex economics ideas accessible by carefully explaining technical terms and minimizing mathematics and equations - Delivers easily-understood perspectives about the global economy by constructing broad assumptions and conclusions in the face of its infinitely complexity - Challenges received economic ideas by focusing on human behavior and the roles it plays in easily-observable recent trends and events

This book discusses market microstructure environment within the context of the global financial crisis. In the first part, the market microstructure theory is recalled and the main microstructure models and hypotheses are discussed. The second part focuses on the main effects of the financial downturn through an examination of market microstructure dynamics. In particular, the effects of market imperfections and the limitations associated with microstructure models are discussed. Finally, the new regulations and recent developments for financial markets that aim to improve the market microstructure are discussed. Well-known experts on the subject contribute to the chapters in the book. A must-read for academic researchers, students and quantitative practitioners.

Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, applies complexity modelling to economics and finance.

In recent years, as part of the increasing “informationization” of industry and the economy, enterprises have been accumulating vast amounts of detailed data such as high-frequency transaction data in nancial markets and point-of-sale information onindividualitems in theretail sector. Similarly,vast amountsof data arenow ava- able on business networks based on inter rm transactions and shareholdings. In the past, these types of information were studied only by economists and management scholars. More recently, however, researchers from other elds, such as physics, mathematics, and information sciences, have become interested in this kind of data and, based on novel empirical approaches to searching for regularities and “laws” akin to those in the natural sciences, have produced intriguing results. This book is the proceedings of the international conference THICCAPFA7 that was titled “New Approaches to the Analysis of Large-Scale Business and E- nomic Data,” held in Tokyo, March 1–5, 2009. The letters THIC denote the Tokyo Tech (Tokyo Institute of Technology)–Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference. The conference series, titled APFA (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis), focuses on the analysis of large-scale economic data. It has traditionally brought physicists and economists together to exchange viewpoints and experience (APFA1 in Dublin 1999, APFA2 in Liege ` 2000, APFA3 in London 2001, APFA4 in Warsaw 2003, APFA5 in Torino 2006, and APFA6 in Lisbon 2007). The aim of the conf- ence is to establish fundamental analytical techniques and data collection methods, taking into account the results from a variety of academic disciplines.

In mathematics and science, a nonlinear system is a system in which the change of the output is not proportional to the change of input. Nonlinear control systems, which are among the new technologies most widely used in many fields such as economic management, industrial production, technology research and development, ecological prevention and control, are at the core of worldwide automation control technology. In contrast to linear control systems, the nonlinear control system has the characteristics of a data model: stability, zero-input system response, self-excited oscillation or limit cycle, and a more complex structure, increasing the difficulty of its theoretical analysis and technical development. Nonlinear systems are common phenomena in real life and as such cannot be ignored. Analysis and research of nonlinear systems are therefore important, and researchers need to clarify their characteristics, explore scientific and effective application measures, and finally enhance their control quality. This book comprehensively investigates the main principles, core mechanisms, typical problems, and relevant solutions involved in nonlinear systems. In general, this book aims to provide advanced research on nonlinear systems and control schemes for researchers and engineers working in related fields, and thus promote future study in this research area.

Over the last two decades there has been a great deal of research into nonlinear dynamic models in economics, finance and the social sciences. This book contains twenty papers that range over very recent applications in these areas. Topics covered include structural change and economic growth, disequilibrium dynamics and economic policy as well as models with boundedly rational agents. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in this area and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and to mathematicians interested in seeing ideas from nonlinear dynamics and complexity theory applied to the economic sciences.

'Buz Brock's contribution to economic theory in general and economic dynamics in particular are characterized by an unmatched richness of ideas and by deep theoretical, empirical as well as computational analysis. Brock's contribution to economic dynamics range from one extreme of the field, global stability of stochastic optimal growth models, to another extreme, market instability and nonlinearity in economic and financial modelling and data analysis. But his work also includes environmental and economic policy issues and, more recently, the modelling of markets as complex adaptive systems. This collection of essays reflects Brock's richness of ideas that have motivated economists for more than three decades already and will continue to influence many economists for the next decades to come.' - Cars H. Hommes, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 'Buz Brock has been, from the beginning of his career, one of the most original thinkers in dynamic economics. His early work showed that growth with random elements could be studied effectively and above all posed exactly the right questions. His more recent work has brought complexity theory to the fore and shown its implications for financial and other markets. In the process, he has both introduced and used econometric tools to show the relevance of his work to empirically observed phenomena. It is very useful to have his work in collected form.' - Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US This outstanding collection of William Brock's essays illustrates the power of dynamic modelling to shed light on the forces for stability and instability in economic systems. The articles selected reflect his best work and are indicative both of the type of policy problem that he finds challenging and the complex methodology that he uses to solve them. Also included is an introduction by Brock to his own work, which helps tie together the main aspects of his research to date.

This volume constitutes the Proceedings of the "Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Social Sciences" Meeting held at the Certosa di Pontignano, Siena, on May 27-30, 1991. The Meeting was organized by the National Group "Modelli Nonlineari in Economia e Dinamiche Complesse" of the Italian Ministery of University and SCientific Research, M.U.RS.T. The aim of the Conference, which followed a previous analogous initiative taking place in the very same Certosa, on January 1988*, was the one of offering a come together opportunity to economists interested in a new mathematical approach to the modelling of economical processes, through the use of more advanced analytical techniques, and mathematicians acting in the field of global dynamical systems theory and applications. A basiC underlying idea drove the organizers: the necessity of fOCUSing on the use that recent methods and results, as those commonly referred to the overpopularized label of "Chaotic Dynamics", did find in the social sciences domain; and thus to check their actual relevance in the research program of modelling economic phenomena, in order to individuate and stress promising perspectives, as well as to curb excessive hopes and criticize not infrequent cases where research reduces to mechanical, ad hoc, applications of "a la mode" techniques. In a word we felt the need of looking about the state of the arts in non-linear systems theory applications to economics and social processes: hence the title of the workshop and the volume.

This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of financial cycles. A companion paper studies the simulation properties of MAPMOD.

As the 55th anniversary of the bank holiday of March 1933 approached, financial instability was a main topic in the financial press. Daily reports appeared of international debt crises, of the covert bankruptcy of deposit insurance, and of the near bankruptcy of one great financial institution after another. The great stock market crash of October 19 and 20, 1987, demonstrated that extreme instability can happen. It is generally asserted that the consequences of October 19th and 20th would have been disastrous if the Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions had not set things right. In 1933, financial markets in the United States and throughout the capitalist world collapsed. In the light of historical experience, the past 55 years are the anomaly. The papers collected in this volume come from various backgrounds and research paradigms. A common theme runs through these papers that makes the collection both interesting and important: The authors take seriously the obvious evidence that capitalist economies progress through time by lurching. Whether a particular study starts from household utility maximization or from the processes by which productive structures are reproduced and expanded, the authors are united in accepting the evidence that financial instability is a significant characteristic of modern capitalism.