The problem of forecasting future values of economic and physical processes, the problem of restoring lost information, cleaning signals or other data observations from noise, is magnified in an information-laden word. Methods of stochastic processes estimation depend on two main factors. The first factor is construction of a model of the process being investigated. The second factor is the available information about the structure of the process under consideration. In this book, we propose results of the investigation of the problem of mean square optimal estimation (extrapolation, interpolation, and filtering) of linear functionals depending on unobserved values of stochastic sequences and processes with periodically stationary and long memory multiplicative seasonal increments. Formulas for calculating the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of the functionals are derived in the case of spectral certainty, where spectral structure of the considered sequences and processes are exactly known. In the case where spectral densities of the sequences and processes are not known exactly while some sets of admissible spectral densities are given, we apply the minimax-robust method of estimation.

Suitable for a one-semester course, this text teaches students how to use stochastic processes efficiently. Carefully balancing mathematical rigor and ease of exposition, the book provides students with a sufficient understanding of the theory and a practical appreciation of how it is used in real-life situations. Special emphasis is on the interpretation of various statistical models and concepts as well as the types of questions statistical analysis can answer. To enable hands-on practice, MATLAB code is available online.

We propose results of the investigation of the problem of mean square optimal estimation of linear functionals constructed from unobserved values of stationary stochastic processes. Estimates are based on observations of the processes with additive stationary noise process. The aim of the book is to develop methods for finding the optimal estimates of the functionals in the case where some observations are missing. Formulas for computing values of the mean-square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal linear estimates of functionals are derived in the case of spectral certainty, where the spectral densities of the processes are exactly known. The minimax robust method of estimation is applied in the case of spectral uncertainty, where the spectral densities of the processes are not known exactly while some classes of admissible spectral densities are given. The formulas that determine the least favourable spectral densities and the minimax spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of functionals are proposed for some special classes of admissible densities.

Estimation of Stochastic Processes is intended for researchers in the field of econometrics, financial mathematics, statistics or signal processing. This book gives a deep understanding of spectral theory and estimation techniques for stochastic processes with stationary increments. It focuses on the estimation of functionals of unobserved values for stochastic processes with stationary increments, including ARIMA processes, seasonal time series and a class of cointegrated sequences. Furthermore, this book presents solutions to extrapolation (forecast), interpolation (missed values estimation) and filtering (smoothing) problems based on observations with and without noise, in discrete and continuous time domains. Extending the classical approach applied when the spectral densities of the processes are known, the minimax method of estimation is developed for a case where the spectral information is incomplete and the relations that determine the least favorable spectral densities for the optimal estimations are found.

The problem of forecasting future values of economic and physical processes, the problem of restoring lost information, cleaning signals or other data observations from noise, is magnified in an information-laden word. Methods of stochastic processes estimation depend on two main factors. The first factor is construction of a model of the process being investigated. The second factor is the available information about the structure of the process under consideration. In this book, we propose results of the investigation of the problem of mean square optimal estimation (extrapolation, interpolation, and filtering) of linear functionals depending on unobserved values of stochastic sequences and processes with periodically stationary and long memory multiplicative seasonal increments. Formulas for calculating the mean square errors and the spectral characteristics of the optimal estimates of the functionals are derived in the case of spectral certainty, where spectral structure of the considered sequences and processes are exactly known. In the case where spectral densities of the sequences and processes are not known exactly while some sets of admissible spectral densities are given, we apply the minimax-robust method of estimation.

This book presents mathematical, programming and statistical tools used in the real world analysis and modeling of financial data. The tools are used to model asset returns, measure risk, and construct optimized portfolios using the open source R programming language and Microsoft Excel. The author explains how to build probability models for asset returns, to apply statistical techniques to evaluate if asset returns are normally distributed, to use Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping techniques to evaluate statistical models, and to use optimization methods to construct efficient portfolios.

Intended for a second course in stationary processes, Stationary Stochastic Processes: Theory and Applications presents the theory behind the field’s widely scattered applications in engineering and science. In addition, it reviews sample function properties and spectral representations for stationary processes and fields, including a portion on stationary point processes. Features Presents and illustrates the fundamental correlation and spectral methods for stochastic processes and random fields Explains how the basic theory is used in special applications like detection theory and signal processing, spatial statistics, and reliability Motivates mathematical theory from a statistical model-building viewpoint Introduces a selection of special topics, including extreme value theory, filter theory, long-range dependence, and point processes Provides more than 100 exercises with hints to solutions and selected full solutions This book covers key topics such as ergodicity, crossing problems, and extremes, and opens the doors to a selection of special topics, like extreme value theory, filter theory, long-range dependence, and point processes, and includes many exercises and examples to illustrate the theory. Precise in mathematical details without being pedantic, Stationary Stochastic Processes: Theory and Applications is for the student with some experience with stochastic processes and a desire for deeper understanding without getting bogged down in abstract mathematics.

The Symposium, held in Torino (lSI, Villa Gualino) July 1-5, 1991 is the sixth of a series of IUTAM-Symposia on the application of stochastic analysis to continuum and discrete mechanics. The previous one, held in Innsbruck (1987), was mainly concentrated on qual itative and quantitative analysis of stochastic dynamical systems as well as on bifurcation and transition to chaos of deterministic systems. This Symposium concentrated on fundamental aspects (stochastic analysis and mathe matical methods), on specific applications in various branches of mechanics, engineering and applied sciences as well as on related fields as analysis of large systems, system identifica tion, earthquake prediction. Numerical methods suitable to provide quantitative results, say stochastic finite elements, approximation of probability distribution and direct integration of differential equations have also been the object of interesting presentations. Specific topics of the sessions have been: Engineering Applications, Equivalent Lineariza tion of Discrete Stochastic Systems, Fatigue and Life Estimation, Fluid Dynamics, Numerical Methods, Random Vibration, Reliability Analysis, Stochastic Differential Equations, System Identification, Stochastic Control. We are indebted to the IUTAM Bureau for having promoted and sponsored this Sympo sium and the Scientific Committee for having collaborated to the selection of participants and lecturers as well as to a prompt reviewing of the papers submitted for publication into these proceedings. A special thank is due to Frank Kozin: the organization of this meeting was for him ';ery important; he missed the meeting but his organizer ability was present.