In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

Maps capture data expressing the economic complexity of countries from Albania to Zimbabwe, offering current economic measures and as well as a guide to achieving prosperity Why do some countries grow and others do not? The authors of The Atlas of Economic Complexity offer readers an explanation based on "Economic Complexity," a measure of a society's productive knowledge. Prosperous societies are those that have the knowledge to make a larger variety of more complex products. The Atlas of Economic Complexity attempts to measure the amount of productive knowledge countries hold and how they can move to accumulate more of it by making more complex products. Through the graphical representation of the "Product Space," the authors are able to identify each country's "adjacent possible," or potential new products, making it easier to find paths to economic diversification and growth. In addition, they argue that a country's economic complexity and its position in the product space are better predictors of economic growth than many other well-known development indicators, including measures of competitiveness, governance, finance, and schooling. Using innovative visualizations, the book locates each country in the product space, provides complexity and growth potential rankings for 128 countries, and offers individual country pages with detailed information about a country's current capabilities and its diversification options. The maps and visualizations included in the Atlas can be used to find more viable paths to greater productive knowledge and prosperity.

This paper discusses the coverage of Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) is augmented by using trade statistics available from other international organizations. Monthly data for all European Union member countries are sourced from the COMEXT database maintained by EUROSTAT. Annual data reported to the United Nations COMTRADE database are incorporated in DOTS for countries that do not report to the IMF. Furthermore, the availability of partner data makes it possible to calculate estimates of countries for which data are not obtainable from other sources. Estimation occurs if a reporting country does not report trade with its partners for a specific period. Data are estimated for all partners. In the absence of some or all of the monthly DOTS, quarterly or annual reported DOTS are used. Because imports are valued on a cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) basis and exports on a free on board (FOB) basis, the data are adjusted for the cost of freight and insurance.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

This quarterly issue of Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) provides tables with current reported data (or estimates) on the value of merchandise trade statistics (exports and imports) by partner country for all IMF member states and other nonmember countries. Summary tables are also presented for the world and major areas. DOTS republish monthly, quarterly, and annual trade statistics as submitted by countries to the IMF. Furthermore, reported data are supplemented by estimates whenever such data are not current or are not available on a monthly basis. Monthly estimates are consistent with quarterly and annual reported data, when available. The quarterly issues (DOTSQ) and the yearbook (DOTSY) present figures for the most recent quarters and years, respectively. Estimation occurs if a reporting country does not report trade with its partners for a specific period. Data are estimated for all partners. In the absence of some or all the monthly DOTS, quarterly or annual reported DOTS are used.

Direction of Trade Statistics, September 2018

Direction of Trade Statistics, December 2018

This paper outlines data that are estimated for all partners. In the absence of some or all of the monthly Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS), quarterly or annual reported DOTS is used. Annual reported data to the UN COMTRADE database are treated as reported to the IMF. When only annual or quarterly data are available, the monthly trade between country A and B is distributed over the relevant months using the following information (in order of priority): the monthly value of the partner trade reported by country B; the monthly total value of imports and exports reported in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) by country A; or the monthly value of trade that all other partner countries have reported with country A for the specific month. The monthly distribution is done through a time-series procedure that reproduces at the best the month-to-month changes of the information available at the monthly level and, simultaneously, produces estimates that are consistent with quarterly or annual data reported by countries. Estimates are computed for months, and then quarterly and annual totals are obtained by summation.

This quarterly issue of Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) provides, for about 160 countries, tables with current data (or estimates) on the value of imports from and exports to their most important trading partners. The yearbook and quarterly issues of the DOTS publication provide tables with current reported data (or estimates) on the value of merchandise trade statistics (exports and imports) by partner country for all IMF members. In addition, similar summary tables for the world, industrial countries, and developing countries are included. The yearbook provides, for the most recent seven years, detailed trade data by country for approximately 184 countries, the world, and major areas. Other countries may report monthly data that are less current, or the information may be compiled and made available in quarterly or annual frequency. For some countries, the data reported to the United Nations Statistical Division also have been used. Estimation occurs if a reporting country does not report trade with its partners for a specific period. In order to provide guidance regarding the sources of the figures for individual countries, figures in the country, world, and area pages are shown with symbols to the right of the figure.

Direction of Trade Statistics, September 2017