The Nation's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook April 2007 Update: The Bottom Line: Federal Fiscal Policy Remains Unsustainable

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Why did the price of gold hit record highs in 2008? Take a look at the headlines - government bailouts of failed banks, mortgage and credit crises, rising inflation, slowing growth and global insecurity. In order to protect themselves from treacherous financial markets and depreciated paper currencies investors worldwide are turning to gold. Gold has long been used as money and as a store of wealth, but what's the source of its value? Why does that value sometimes rise so high and at other times fall so low? And what do we know about gold's complex and often tumultuous past that may yield clues about how it may behave in the future? Gold is a side show on a world financial stage dominated by the dollar. The tail can't wag the dog -gold prices are affected by changes in prospects for the dollar and not vice versa. With uncertain outcomes for the American and global economies, gold's stateless money franchise makes this book compelling reading. "John Katz is a clear eyed independent strategist and analyst with an extraordinary ability to get to grips with subjects ranging from biotechnology via alternative energy to commodities and gold. Uniquely for a commentator on gold he has no dogmas. To assess the risks and rewards that come with owning gold he introduces opinions from an impressive range of commentators, examines different scenarios that may play out on the world economic stage and highlights situations when owning gold makes sense and when it doesn't. To complete the picture Frank Holmes's contribution to The Goldwatcher explains the risks and rewards. The Goldwatcher has been written for 21st century investors. It will be an indispensable resource for responsible people from institutional money managers to private savers - whether the gold price moves up, down, or sideways." —Patrick H. Spencer, Managing Director, Head of Institutional Sales, Robert W. Baird Limited, London "Frank Holmes's stellar track record as a resource portfolio manager is a clear reflection of his understanding of the business, the markets and the factors that affect them. His success is as much about unearthing value as it is about creating an investment process that is religiously followed. If you want to succeed in your resource investment,this book is a must. It's all the more enjoyable because the writing style is easy-going,clear and understandable." —Pierre Lassonde, Former chairman, World Gold Council, and past president, Newmont Mining Corp This book is also supported by The Goldwatcher blog - http://wwwthegoldwatcher.com, which addresses news and developments affecting gold and the dollar, updates statistical information and links with sources for data and commentary.

"This story of hope for both immigrants and native-born Americans is a well-researched, insightful, and illuminating study that provides compelling evidence to support a policy of homegrown human investment as a new priority. A timely, valuable addition to demographic and immigration studies. Highly recommended." —Choice Virtually unnoticed in the contentious national debate over immigration is the significant demographic change about to occur as the first wave of the Baby Boom generation retires, slowly draining the workforce and straining the federal budget to the breaking point. In this forward-looking new book, noted demographer Dowell Myers proposes a new way of thinking about the influx of immigrants and the impending retirement of the Baby Boomers. Myers argues that each of these two powerful demographic shifts may hold the keys to resolving the problems presented by the other. Immigrants and Boomers looks to California as a bellwether state—where whites are no longer a majority of the population and represent just a third of residents under age twenty—to afford us a glimpse into the future impact of immigration on the rest of the nation. Myers opens with an examination of the roots of voter resistance to providing social services for immigrants. Drawing on detailed census data, Myers demonstrates that long-established immigrants have been far more successful than the public believes. Among the Latinos who make up the bulk of California's immigrant population, those who have lived in California for over a decade show high levels of social mobility and use of English, and 50 percent of Latino immigrants become homeowners after twenty years. The impressive progress made by immigrant families suggests they have the potential to pick up the slack from aging boomers over the next two decades. The mass retirement of the boomers will leave critical shortages in the educated workforce, while shrinking ranks of middle-class tax payers and driving up entitlement expenditures. In addition, as retirees sell off their housing assets, the prospect of a generational collapse in housing prices looms. Myers suggests that it is in the boomers' best interest to invest in the education and integration of immigrants and their children today in order to bolster the ranks of workers, taxpayers, and homeowners America they will depend on ten and twenty years from now. In this compelling, optimistic book, Myers calls for a new social contract between the older and younger generations, based on their mutual interests and the moral responsibility of each generation to provide for children and the elderly. Combining a rich scholarly perspective with keen insight into contemporary political dilemmas, Immigrants and Boomers creates a new framework for understanding the demographic challenges facing America and forging a national consensus to address them.

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.