This is the first book dedicated to the scrutinization of Myanmar's unofficial foreign exchange market, its roots in restrictive administrative controls on foreign exchange and international trade, and its effects on the country’s economic performance. This book integrates vast pieces of records and data with first-hand information from extensive fieldwork to create an overall picture of the chaotic but seemingly efficient foreign exchange market in Myanmar, a transitional economy in Southeast Asia whose economic systems had been less known due to its isolation until recently. This book illustrates how the unofficial foreign exchange market emerged during the country’s transition to a market-based economy, how informal currency deals proliferated under restrictive controls, and why they persist despite the significant economic reforms since 2011. Refuting the conventional wisdom of foreign exchange policy reforms, this research clarifies path-dependent features of foreign exchange market systems, and it discusses possible solutions for modernizing economic systems. This book is highly recommended to readers who seek an in-depth analytical narrative about informal economic activities and foreign exchange policy reforms in a fragile state.

Myanmar's multiple exchange rate system creates various economic distortions. This paper describes the exchange rate practices in Myanmar, develops a model of foreign exchange markets, and presents the efficiency costs imposed by quasi-fiscal operation under the current exchange rate regime. The results of our model-based analyses indicate that the equilibrium exchange rate under the unified market could be at around K 400-500 per U.S. dollar, and using the equilibrium exchange rate (instead of the official exchange rate) as the accounting rate increases trade openness to more than 20 percent from less than 1 percent measured by official statistics. The total efficiency loss caused by the current multiple exchange rate regime is estimated at about 14-17 percent of GDP in 2006/07.

With motivated human resources and a rich natural bounty, Myanmar is expected to take off with sustained growth and eventually attain a unique welfare state. On the basis of the authors’ field surveys and innumerable dialogues with public officials, private professionals, scholars, and others, in addition to intensive desk studies since around 2000, the present volume lays out the essential ingredients for drawing a roadmap to realise the above-mentioned objective. That goal is, specifically, financial development, adequate social capital, indigenous modern manufactures and closer international tie-ups, among others, but above all, sound agrarian development. An effort has been made to place the required ingredients in their historical contexts, as historical experiences constitute an important sociopolitical condition in which development takes place. Myanmar nationals and readers concerned with the country’s economic progress are encouraged to give serious, sustained thought to coming up with a socially supportable roadmap for the country's development path. The present volume provides valuable hints for that purpose.

There are a number of excellent studies by eminent Myanmar economists as well as scholars from abroad covering different post-war periods and/or various aspects of development in Myanmar. What this book does is to bring them altogether, as it were, under one roof by recasting bits and pieces of their work according to the author’s own understanding. In doing so, a holistic approach was adopted in order to have a well-rounded account of developments over the past fifty years or more. In addition, an attempt has also been made to present the major developments at different periods of time between 1948 and 2000 in a simple, but not over simplified, reader-friendly format so as to reach as wide an audience as possible. It is the author’s ardent wish that not only students and policy-makers, but Myanmar people in all walks of life will read the book, discuss it, and work together for a better future.

After 3 years of historic reforms, Myanmar has entered a pivotal stage in its socioeconomic development. Natural, cultural, and demographic advantages are positioning the country for long-term success, but many challenges and potential pitfalls lie ahead. This publication examines how to leverage the opportunities and offers solutions to the challenges. For Myanmar to achieve its economic transition, considerable investments will have to be made in infrastructure and developing human capital, and progress made on building institutional capacity, a regulatory environment for the private sector to flourish, and a modern finance sector. In all reform efforts, the government should embrace good governance, and strive for inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and regionally connected growth. Ensuring that the benefits of growth are shared broadly and regionally balanced stands out in a crowded development agenda.

After an initial assessment of constraints to development in Myanmar found in Volume I, this Volume II assesses key issues and makes policy recommendations.

Myanmar is a low-income country, and with the right reforms, it can realize its rich economic potential. The government has embarked on a bold and historic set of reforms, which are already bearing fruit. Executive Directors support the steps for ensuring macroeconomic stability. Exchange rate unification will be an important foundational step for securing macroeconomic stability, which will help boost competitiveness and trade. A consistent monetary policy framework and containing fiscal deficits will give higher and stable revenues to fund development needs.

For many years Myanmar operated an inward-looking economic system built on import substitution. Ultimately this policy failed, leaving behind inefficient state economic enterprises and widespread poverty. Political unrest in 1988 led a newly installed military government to liberalize the economy, opening it to foreign investment and private participation in trade. This move towards a market economy was in line with world-wide trends, but political instability forced the country to follow a course different from neighboring countries. By analyzing economic policies and performance across the economic spectrum, this book presents an overall picture of economic development in Myanmar between 1988 and the early 2000s. The authors synthesize both macro and micro level data to overcome some of the limitations of unreliable national statistics, and show how the government attempted to deal with two key issues it faced. The first was how to reform the inefficient socialistic economic system in conformity with a market economy, and the second was how to develop the agricultural and underdeveloped economy to alleviate mass poverty.

The AREAER provides a comprehensive description of restrictions on international trade and payments, capital controls, and measures implemented in the financial sector, including prudential measures that may affect capital flows for all IMF members. It also provides information on the classification of their exchange rate arrangements, operation of foreign exchange markets, restrictions on current international payments and transfers and multiple currency practices subject to the IMF’s jurisdiction in accordance with Article VIII. Descriptions of individual member countries are available at AREAER Online.

This paper reviews economic developments in Myanmar during the 1990s. The economic performance of Myanmar in the 1990s has fallen short of other countries in the region. The Asian crisis has had an unexpectedly limited impact on Myanmar. Following the floating of the Thai baht in June 1997, the free market exchange rate depreciated rapidly, leading to a surge in inflation. Other effects of the crisis have included a slowing in growth of tourist arrivals and delayed receipt of gas export revenues.