Introduction and background; Exploratory data analysis and graphics; Deterministic functions for ecological modeling; Probability and stochastic distributions for ecological modeling; Stochatsic simulation and power analysis; Likelihood and all that; Optimization and all that; Likelihood examples; Standar statistics revisited; Modeling variance; Dynamic models.

The environmental sciences are undergoing a revolution in the use of models and data. Facing ecological data sets of unprecedented size and complexity, environmental scientists are struggling to understand and exploit powerful new statistical tools for making sense of ecological processes. In Models for Ecological Data, James Clark introduces ecologists to these modern methods in modeling and computation. Assuming only basic courses in calculus and statistics, the text introduces readers to basic maximum likelihood and then works up to more advanced topics in Bayesian modeling and computation. Clark covers both classical statistical approaches and powerful new computational tools and describes how complexity can motivate a shift from classical to Bayesian methods. Through an available lab manual, the book introduces readers to the practical work of data modeling and computation in the language R. Based on a successful course at Duke University and National Science Foundation-funded institutes on hierarchical modeling, Models for Ecological Data will enable ecologists and other environmental scientists to develop useful models that make sense of ecological data. Consistent treatment from classical to modern Bayes Underlying distribution theory to algorithm development Many examples and applications Does not assume statistical background Extensive supporting appendixes Lab manual in R is available separately

Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts and techniques of the Bayesian paradigm from a practical point of view using real case studies. They emphasize how hierarchical Bayesian modeling supports multidimensional models involving complex interactions between parameters and latent variables. Data sets, exercises, and R and WinBUGS codes are available on the authors’ website. This book shows how Bayesian statistical modeling provides an intuitive way to organize data, test ideas, investigate competing hypotheses, and assess degrees of confidence of predictions. It also illustrates how conditional reasoning can dismantle a complex reality into more understandable pieces. As conditional reasoning is intimately linked with Bayesian thinking, considering hierarchical models within the Bayesian setting offers a unified and coherent framework for modeling, estimation, and prediction.

This book discusses advanced statistical methods that can be used to analyse ecological data. Most environmental collected data are measured repeatedly over time, or space and this requires the use of GLMM or GAMM methods. The book starts by revising regression, additive modelling, GAM and GLM, and then discusses dealing with spatial or temporal dependencies and nested data.

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods.This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures.The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution* abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling* capture-recapture models with individual effects* spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods* population and metapopulation dynamic models* models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics - Wide variety of examples involving many taxa (birds, amphibians, mammals, insects, plants) - Development of classical, likelihood-based procedures for inference, as well as Bayesian methods of analysis - Detailed explanations describing the implementation of hierarchical models using freely available software such as R and WinBUGS - Computing support in technical appendices in an online companion web site

Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN examines the Bayesian and frequentist methods of conducting data analyses. The book provides the theoretical background in an easy-to-understand approach, encouraging readers to examine the processes that generated their data. Including discussions of model selection, model checking, and multi-model inference, the book also uses effect plots that allow a natural interpretation of data. Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN introduces Bayesian software, using R for the simple modes, and flexible Bayesian software (BUGS and Stan) for the more complicated ones. Guiding the ready from easy toward more complex (real) data analyses ina step-by-step manner, the book presents problems and solutions—including all R codes—that are most often applicable to other data and questions, making it an invaluable resource for analyzing a variety of data types. - Introduces Bayesian data analysis, allowing users to obtain uncertainty measurements easily for any derived parameter of interest - Written in a step-by-step approach that allows for eased understanding by non-statisticians - Includes a companion website containing R-code to help users conduct Bayesian data analyses on their own data - All example data as well as additional functions are provided in the R-package blmeco

This book provides a practical introduction to analyzing ecological data using real data sets. The first part gives a largely non-mathematical introduction to data exploration, univariate methods (including GAM and mixed modeling techniques), multivariate analysis, time series analysis, and spatial statistics. The second part provides 17 case studies. The case studies include topics ranging from terrestrial ecology to marine biology and can be used as a template for a reader’s own data analysis. Data from all case studies are available from www.highstat.com. Guidance on software is provided in the book.

This handbook focuses on the enormous literature applying statistical methodology and modelling to environmental and ecological processes. The 21st century statistics community has become increasingly interdisciplinary, bringing a large collection of modern tools to all areas of application in environmental processes. In addition, the environmental community has substantially increased its scope of data collection including observational data, satellite-derived data, and computer model output. The resultant impact in this latter community has been substantial; no longer are simple regression and analysis of variance methods adequate. The contribution of this handbook is to assemble a state-of-the-art view of this interface. Features: An internationally regarded editorial team. A distinguished collection of contributors. A thoroughly contemporary treatment of a substantial interdisciplinary interface. Written to engage both statisticians as well as quantitative environmental researchers. 34 chapters covering methodology, ecological processes, environmental exposure, and statistical methods in climate science.

Mathematical modelling is an essential tool in present-day ecological research. Yet for many ecologists it is still problematic to apply modelling in their research. In our experience, the major problem is at the conceptual level: proper understanding of what a model is, how ecological relations can be translated consistently into mathematical equations, how models are solved, steady states calculated and interpreted. Many textbooks jump over these conceptual hurdles to dive into detailed formulations or the mathematics of solution. This book attempts to fill that gap. It introduces essential concepts for mathematical modelling, explains the mathematics behind the methods, and helps readers to implement models and obtain hands-on experience. Throughout the book, emphasis is laid on how to translate ecological questions into interpretable models in a practical way. The book aims to be an introductory textbook at the undergraduate-graduate level, but will also be useful to seduce experienced ecologists into the world of modelling. The range of ecological models treated is wide, from Lotka-Volterra type of principle-seeking models to environmental or ecosystem models, and including matrix models, lattice models and sequential decision models. All chapters contain a concise introduction into the theory, worked-out examples and exercises. All examples are implemented in the open-source package R, thus taking away problems of software availability for use of the book. All code used in the book is available on a dedicated website.

Ecologists are increasingly tackling difficult issues like global change, loss of biodiversity and sustainability of ecosystem services. These and related topics are enormously challenging, requiring unprecedented multidisciplinary collaboration and rapid synthesis of large amounts of diverse data into information and ultimately knowledge. New sensors, computers, data collection and storage devices and analytical and statistical methods provide a powerful tool kit to support analyses, graphics and visualizations that were unthinkable even a few years ago. New and increased emphasis on accessibility, management, processing and sharing of high-quality, well-maintained and understandable data represents a significant change in how scientists view and treat data. These issues are complex and despite their importance, are typically not addressed in database, ecological and statistical textbooks. This book addresses these issues, providing a much needed resource for those involved in designing and implementing ecological research, as well as students who are entering the environmental sciences. Chapters focus on the design of ecological studies, data management principles, scientific databases, data quality assurance, data documentation, archiving ecological data and information and processing data into information and knowledge. The book stops short of a detailed treatment of data analysis, but does provide pointers to the relevant literature in graphics, statistics and knowledge discovery. The central thesis of the book is that high quality data management systems are critical for addressing future environmental challenges. This requires a new approach to how we conduct ecological research, that views data as a resource and promotes stewardship, recycling and sharing of data. Ecological Data will be particularly useful to those ecologists and information specialists that actively design, manage and analyze environmental databases. However, it will also benefit a wider audience of scientists and students in the ecological and environmental sciences.