This book presents the results of an international workshop on Modelling and Analysis of Arms Control Problems held in Spitzingsee near Munich in October 1985 under the joint sponsorship of NATO's Scientific Affairs Division and the Volkswagen Foundation. The idea for this workshop evolved in 1983, as a consequence of discussions in the annual Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the Federal Armed Forces University ~1unich on the topic of Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control 1) • There was wide agreement among the contribu tors to that seminar and its participants that those efforts to assess the potential contributions of systems and decision sciences, as well as systems analysis and"mathematical modelling, to arms control issues should be ex panded and a forum should be provided for this activity. It was further agreed that such a forum should include political scientists and policy analysts working in the area of arms control.

This book originates in a series of contributions to the 1983 Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the German Armed Forces University Munich. Under the topic "Quantita tive Approaches to Arms Control" that seminar attempted to review the present state-of-the-art of systems analysis and numerate meth ods in arms control. To this end, the editors invited a number of experts from Europe, the United St~tes and Canada to share and dis cuss their views and assessments with the faculty and upper class computer science students of the university as well as numerous guests from the defence community and the interested public. In three parts, this book presents a selection of partly re vised and somewhat extended versions of the seminar presentations followed, in most cases, by brief summaries of the transcripts of the respective discussions. In addition to an introduction by the editors, part I contains six papers on the present state and prob lems of arms control with emphasis on START (Strategic Arms Re duction Talks), INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces negotia tions), and MBFR (Mutually Balanced Force Reduction talks). The seven contributions to part II are devoted to mathematical models of arms competition and quantitative approaches to force balance assessment of both, the static and dynamic variety. Part III pre sents five papers which address technical and operational aspects and legal implications of arms control negotiations and verifica tion.

Demonstrating the ways in which work in a broad range of fields can be pulled together in the analysis of conflict, this book provides the reader with a general introduction to the principles of conflict analysis and lays a methodological foundation for the further development of the interdisciplinary field of peace science. The text begins with an extensive survey of arms race models, from the classic Richardson model to models exploring the effects of factors such as the domestic and international economic environment, public opinion and party politics, and weapons technology and information development. The processes of individual and group problem-solving, in both crisis and non-crisis conditions, are examined, drawing on work in economics, operations research, cognitive science, and artificial intelligence. Building on this diverse body of work, the author moves on to develop a framework for conflict management with which to approach a variety of conflict situations and applies this procedure to the United States-Soviet arms control conflict. Walter Isard is cited by Mark Blaug as one of the Great Economists Since Keynes (CUP, 1989 paper edition).

The work under this contract is reported in eight volumes, two of which have two parts. Volume 1 discusses the following topics: Methods for arms control analysis; rapid production model (RPM); SIR NEM; peripheral programs; and, support of agency analysis.

This book is about the role of international law in the arms control process. It discusses the law of arms control as a special branch of international law and covers the following topics: the place of the law of arms control in the system of international law and politics, special characteristics of arms control law, the international legal framework of supervision in the law of arms control, general features of supervisory mechanisms in all multilateral arms control treaties currently in force, case studies on the CWC, IAEA safeguards system and CTBT, and enforcement of the law of arms control. As such, this study provides a comprehensive theory and model for the analysis of supervisory mechanisms in arms control treaties and offers an in-depth overview of the law of arms control as it stands in the post Cold War situation. The book will be of interest to international lawyers as well as political scientists and policy-makers.