Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals.

As cities are rapidly expanding and encroaching into agricultural and natural areas, a question of primary concern is how this expansion affects surrounding agriculture and natural landscapes. This book presents a wide spectrum of both theoretical and empirical approaches to simulation and assessment of landscape dynamics. The first part presents state-of-the-art modelling approaches pertaining to land-use changes entailed by the urban sprawl, at different spatial resolutions and temporal time scales. The second part is dedicated to case studies of the effects and consequences of the emerging urban-agriculture open space patterns.

This book provides a full overview of land-use change simulation modelling, a wide range of applications, a mix of theory and practice, a synthesis of recent research progress, and educational material for students and teachers. This volume is an indispensable guide for anyone interested in the state-of-the-art of land-use modelling, its background and its application.

As scientific understanding about ecological processes has grown, the idea that ecosystem dynamics are complex, nonlinear, and often unpredictable has gained prominence. Of particular importance is the idea that rather than following an inevitable progression toward an ultimate endpoint, some ecosystems may occur in a number of states depending on past and present ecological conditions. The emerging idea of “restoration thresholds” also enables scientists to recognize when ecological systems are likely to recover on their own and when active restoration efforts are needed. Conceptual models based on alternative stable states and restoration thresholds can help inform restoration efforts. New Models for Ecosystem Dynamics and Restoration brings together leading experts from around the world to explore how conceptual models of ecosystem dynamics can be applied to the recovery of degraded systems and how recent advances in our understanding of ecosystem and landscape dynamics can be translated into conceptual and practical frameworks for restoration. In the first part of the book, background chapters present and discuss the basic concepts and models and explore the implications of new scientific research on restoration practice. The second part considers the dynamics and restoration of different ecosystems, ranging from arid lands to grasslands, woodlands, and savannahs, to forests and wetlands, to production landscapes. A summary chapter by the editors discusses the implications of theory and practice of the ideas described in preceding chapters. New Models for Ecosystem Dynamics and Restoration aims to widen the scope and increase the application of threshold models by critiquing their application in a wide range of ecosystem types. It will also help scientists and restorationists correctly diagnose ecosystem damage, identify restoration thresholds, and develop corrective methodologies that can overcome such thresholds.

Natural and human-induced changes in Earth's interior, land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans affect all aspects of life. Understanding these changes requires a range of observations acquired from land-, sea-, air-, and space-based platforms. To assist NASA, NOAA, and USGS in developing these tools, the NRC was asked to carry out a "decadal strategy" survey of Earth science and applications from space that would develop the key scientific questions on which to focus Earth and environmental observations in the period 2005-2015 and beyond, and present a prioritized list of space programs, missions, and supporting activities to address these questions. This report presents a vision for the Earth science program; an analysis of the existing Earth Observing System and recommendations to help restore its capabilities; an assessment of and recommendations for new observations and missions for the next decade; an examination of and recommendations for effective application of those observations; and an analysis of how best to sustain that observation and applications system.

People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

This book presents recent estimates on the rate of change of major land classes. Aggregated globally, multiple impacts of local land changes are shown to significantly affect central aspects of Earth System functioning. The book offers innovative developments and applications in the fields of modeling and scenario construction. Conclusions are also drawn about the most pressing implications for the design of appropriate intervention policies.

Ecosystem and Territorial Resilience: A Geoprospective Approach provides a full review of the geoprospective approach and how it can be used in planning for and implementing environmental and territorial resilience measures. The geoprospective approach is a way to predict and assess for future risks, and is a comprehensive method for identifying and addressing potential change impacts. In addition to the main concepts and methods of this approach, the book presents applications and case studies for different spatio-temporal scales and problems related to the degradation of socio-ecosystems, as well as applying the geoprospective approach to environmental and urban planning.The book offers an interdisciplinary perspective, tying in concepts and techniques from geography, including spatial analysis methods, modelling, and GIS, to address issues of ecological impacts of climate change, urban risk and resilience, land use changes, coastal impacts, and sustainable development and potential of adaptability. This book is a unique and integral resource for policy makers, environmental and territorial managers, scientists, engineers, consultants, and graduate students interested in anticipating future change in socio-ecosystems. - Introduces the geoprospective approach to assess the impact of global changes on socio-ecosystems, and potential risk situations for ecosystems and society - Includes geographical techniques such as spatial analysis methods, modeling, and GIS to address various climate change issues and to detect vulnerabilities vs adaptive capacities of spatial systems - Provides case studies as well as interviews with planners and policy makers regarding their views on territorial planning and expectations of the geoprospective

Provides an essential introduction to modeling terrestrial ecosystems in Earth system models for graduate students and researchers.