For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control

This textbook provides information on simple epidemic models, hosts heterogeneities, temporally forced models, stochastic dynamics, spatial models and controlling infectious diseases.

This book deals with infectious diseases -- viral, bacterial, protozoan and helminth -- in terms of the dynamics of their interaction with host populations. The book combines mathematical models with extensive use of epidemiological and other data. This analytic framework is highly useful for the evaluation of public health strategies aimed at controlling or eradicating particular infections. Such a framework is increasingly important in light of the widespread concern for primary health care programs aimed at such diseases as measles, malaria, river blindness, sleeping sickness, and schistosomiasis, and the advent of AIDS/HIV and other emerging viruses. Throughout the book, the mathematics is used as a tool for thinking clearly about fundamental and applied problems having to do with infectious diseases. The book is divided into two parts, one dealing with microparasites (viruses, bacteria and protozoans) and the other with macroparasites (helminths and parasitic arthropods). Each part begins with simple models, developed in a biologically intuitive way, and then goes on to develop more complicated and realistic models as tools for public health planning. The book synthesizes previous work in this rapidly growing field (much of which is scattered between the ecological and the medical literature) with a good deal of new material.

Bayesian analyses have made important inroads in modern clinical research due, in part, to the incorporation of the traditional tools of noninformative priors as well as the modern innovations of adaptive randomization and predictive power. Presenting an introductory perspective to modern Bayesian procedures, Elementary Bayesian Biostatistics explo

Hardly a day goes by without news headlines concerning infectious disease threats. Currently the spectre of a pandemic of influenza A|H1N1 is raising its head, and heated debates are taking place about the pro’s and con’s of vaccinating young girls against human papilloma virus. For an evidence-based and responsible communication of infectious disease topics to avoid misunderstandings and overreaction of the public, we need solid scientific knowledge and an understanding of all aspects of infectious diseases and their control. The aim of our book is to present the reader with the general picture and the main ideas of the subject. The book introduces the reader to methodological aspects of epidemiology that are specific for infectious diseases and provides insight into the epidemiology of some classes of infectious diseases characterized by their main modes of transmission. This choice of topics bridges the gap between scientific research on the clinical, biological, mathematical, social and economic aspects of infectious diseases and their applications in public health. The book will help the reader to understand the impact of infectious diseases on modern society and the instruments that policy makers have at their disposal to deal with these challenges. It is written for students of the health sciences, both of curative medicine and public health, and for experts that are active in these and related domains, and it may be of interest for the educated layman since the technical level is kept relatively low.

Mathematical models are increasingly used to guide public health policy decisions and explore questions in infectious disease control. Written for readers without advanced mathematical skills, this book provides an introduction to this area.

Zoonotic diseases represent one of the leading causes of illness and death from infectious disease. Defined by the World Health Organization, zoonoses are "those diseases and infections that are naturally transmitted between vertebrate animals and man with or without an arthropod intermediate." Worldwide, zoonotic diseases have a negative impact on commerce, travel, and economies. In most developing countries, zoonotic diseases are among those diseases that contribute significantly to an already overly burdened public health system. In industrialized nations, zoonotic diseases are of particular concern for at-risk groups such as the elderly, children, childbearing women, and immunocompromised individuals. The Emergence of Zoonotic Diseases: Understanding the Impact on Animal and Human Health, covers a range of topics, which include: an evaluation of the relative importance of zoonotic diseases against the overall backdrop of emerging infections; research findings related to the current state of our understanding of zoonotic diseases; surveillance and response strategies to detect, prevent, and mitigate the impact of zoonotic diseases on human health; and information about ongoing programs and actions being taken to identify the most important needs in this vital area.

H1N1 ("swine flu"), SARS, mad cow disease, and HIV/AIDS are a few examples of zoonotic diseases-diseases transmitted between humans and animals. Zoonotic diseases are a growing concern given multiple factors: their often novel and unpredictable nature, their ability to emerge anywhere and spread rapidly around the globe, and their major economic toll on several disparate industries. Infectious disease surveillance systems are used to detect this threat to human and animal health. By systematically collecting data on the occurrence of infectious diseases in humans and animals, investigators can track the spread of disease and provide an early warning to human and animal health officials, nationally and internationally, for follow-up and response. Unfortunately, and for many reasons, current disease surveillance has been ineffective or untimely in alerting officials to emerging zoonotic diseases. Sustaining Global Surveillance and Response to Emerging Zoonotic Diseases assesses some of the disease surveillance systems around the world, and recommends ways to improve early detection and response. The book presents solutions for improved coordination between human and animal health sectors, and among governments and international organizations. Parties seeking to improve the detection and response to zoonotic diseases-including U.S. government and international health policy makers, researchers, epidemiologists, human health clinicians, and veterinarians-can use this book to help curtail the threat zoonotic diseases pose to economies, societies, and health.

Humans have lived in close proximity to other animals for thousands of years. Recent scientific studies have even shown that the presence of animals has a positive effect on our physical and mental health. People with pets typically have lower blood pressure, show fewer symptoms of depression, and tend to get more exercise. But there is a darker side to the relationship between animals and humans. Animals are carriers of harmful infectious agents and the source of a myriad of human diseases. In recent years, the emergence of high-profile illnesses such as AIDS, SARS, West Nile virus, and bird flu has drawn much public attention, but as E. Fuller Torrey and Robert H. Yolken reveal, the transfer of deadly microbes from animals to humans is neither a new nor an easily avoided problem. Beginning with the domestication of farm animals nearly 10,000 years ago, Beasts of the Earth traces the ways that human-animal contact has evolved over time. Today, shared living quarters, overlapping ecosystems, and experimental surgical practices where organs or tissues are transplanted from non-humans into humans continue to open new avenues for the transmission of infectious agents. Other changes in human behavior like increased air travel, automated food processing, and threats of bioterrorism are increasing the contagion factor by transporting microbes further distances and to larger populations in virtually no time at all. While the authors urge that a better understanding of past diseases may help us lessen the severity of some illnesses, they also warn that, given our increasingly crowded planet, it is not a question of if but when and how often animal-transmitted diseases will pose serious challenges to human health in the future.

Emerging infectious diseases are often due to environmental disruption, which exposes microbes to a different niche that selects for new virulence traits and facilitates transmission between animals and humans. Thus, health of humans also depends upon health of animals and the environment – a concept called One Health. This book presents core concepts, compelling evidence, successful applications, and remaining challenges of One Health approaches to thwarting the threat of emerging infectious disease. Written by scientists working in the field, this book will provide a series of "stories" about how disruption of the environment and transmission from animal hosts is responsible for emerging human and animal diseases. Explains the concept of One Health and the history of the One Health paradigm shift. Traces the emergence of devastating new diseases in both animals and humans. Presents case histories of notable, new zoonoses, including West Nile virus, hantavirus, Lyme disease, SARS, and salmonella. Links several epidemic zoonoses with the environmental factors that promote them. Offers insight into the mechanisms of microbial evolution toward pathogenicity. Discusses the many causes behind the emergence of antibiotic resistance. Presents new technologies and approaches for public health disease surveillance. Offers political and bureaucratic strategies for promoting the global acceptance of One Health.