A unique and comprehensive text on the philosophy of model-based data analysis and strategy for the analysis of empirical data. The book introduces information theoretic approaches and focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data. It contains several new approaches to estimating model selection uncertainty and incorporating selection uncertainty into estimates of precision. An array of examples is given to illustrate various technical issues. The text has been written for biologists and statisticians using models for making inferences from empirical data.

This important book describes procedures for selecting a model from a large set of competing statistical models. It includes model selection techniques for univariate and multivariate regression models, univariate and multivariate autoregressive models, nonparametric (including wavelets) and semiparametric regression models, and quasi-likelihood and robust regression models. Information-based model selection criteria are discussed, and small sample and asymptotic properties are presented. The book also provides examples and large scale simulation studies comparing the performances of information-based model selection criteria, bootstrapping, and cross-validation selection methods over a wide range of models.

First book to synthesize the research and practice from the active field of model selection.

How can we select the best performing data-driven model? How can we rigorously estimate its generalization error? Statistical learning theory answers these questions by deriving non-asymptotic bounds on the generalization error of a model or, in other words, by upper bounding the true error of the learned model based just on quantities computed on the available data. However, for a long time, Statistical learning theory has been considered only an abstract theoretical framework, useful for inspiring new learning approaches, but with limited applicability to practical problems. The purpose of this book is to give an intelligible overview of the problems of model selection and error estimation, by focusing on the ideas behind the different statistical learning theory approaches and simplifying most of the technical aspects with the purpose of making them more accessible and usable in practice. The book starts by presenting the seminal works of the 80’s and includes the most recent results. It discusses open problems and outlines future directions for research.

Examining the major approaches to hypothesis testing and model selection, this book blends statistical theory with recommendations for practice, illustrated with real-world social science examples. It systematically compares classical (frequentist) and Bayesian approaches, showing how they are applied, exploring ways to reconcile the differences between them, and evaluating key controversies and criticisms. The book also addresses the role of hypothesis testing in the evaluation of theories, the relationship between hypothesis tests and confidence intervals, and the role of prior knowledge in Bayesian estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing. Two easily calculated alternatives to standard hypothesis tests are discussed in depth: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The companion website ([ital]www.guilford.com/weakliem-materials[/ital]) supplies data and syntax files for the book's examples.

Statisticians and applied scientists must often select a model to fit empirical data. This book discusses the philosophy and strategy of selecting such a model using the information theory approach pioneered by Hirotugu Akaike. This approach focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data. The book includes practical applications in biology and environmental science.

Concentration inequalities have been recognized as fundamental tools in several domains such as geometry of Banach spaces or random combinatorics. They also turn to be essential tools to develop a non asymptotic theory in statistics. This volume provides an overview of a non asymptotic theory for model selection. It also discusses some selected applications to variable selection, change points detection and statistical learning.

The process of developing predictive models includes many stages. Most resources focus on the modeling algorithms but neglect other critical aspects of the modeling process. This book describes techniques for finding the best representations of predictors for modeling and for nding the best subset of predictors for improving model performance. A variety of example data sets are used to illustrate the techniques along with R programs for reproducing the results.

Along with many practical applications, Bayesian Model Selection and Statistical Modeling presents an array of Bayesian inference and model selection procedures. It thoroughly explains the concepts, illustrates the derivations of various Bayesian model selection criteria through examples, and provides R code for implementation. The author shows how to implement a variety of Bayesian inference using R and sampling methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. He covers the different types of simulation-based Bayesian model selection criteria, including the numerical calculation of Bayes factors, the Bayesian predictive information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. He also provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of these criteria. In addition, the author discusses how Bayesian model averaging can simultaneously treat both model and parameter uncertainties. Selecting and constructing the appropriate statistical model significantly affect the quality of results in decision making, forecasting, stochastic structure explorations, and other problems. Helping you choose the right Bayesian model, this book focuses on the framework for Bayesian model selection and includes practical examples of model selection criteria.