The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.

China has become deeply integrated into the world economy. Yet, gradual marketization has facilitated the country’s rise without leading to its wholesale assimilation to global neoliberalism. This book uncovers the fierce contest about economic reforms that shaped China’s path. In the first post-Mao decade, China’s reformers were sharply divided. They agreed that China had to reform its economic system and move toward more marketization—but struggled over how to go about it. Should China destroy the core of the socialist system through shock therapy, or should it use the institutions of the planned economy as market creators? With hindsight, the historical record proves the high stakes behind the question: China embarked on an economic expansion commonly described as unprecedented in scope and pace, whereas Russia’s economy collapsed under shock therapy. Based on extensive research, including interviews with key Chinese and international participants and World Bank officials as well as insights gleaned from unpublished documents, the book charts the debate that ultimately enabled China to follow a path to gradual reindustrialization. Beyond shedding light on the crossroads of the 1980s, it reveals the intellectual foundations of state-market relations in reform-era China through a longue durée lens. Overall, the book delivers an original perspective on China’s economic model and its continuing contestations from within and from without.

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.

This book focuses on the implications of the South African labour market dynamics including labour market reforms and fiscal policy for monetary policy and financial stability. Evidence suggests there are benefits in adopting an approach that coordinates labour market policies and reforms, fiscal policy, price and financial stability. In particular, the benefits of coordinating policies present policymakers with policy options in cases where they are confronted by binding policy trade-offs and dilemmas, such as in cases when there is divergence in price and financial and economic growth outcomes. The empirical insights and policy recommendations are based on different techniques that include the counterfactual and endogenous-exogenous approaches, non-linearities introduced by thresholds and the impact of persistent and transitory shock effects. Themes covered in the book include various aspects of labour market conditions and reforms and their link to inflation and inflation expectations, the impact of the national minimum wage, the interaction between public and private sector wage inflation, economic policy uncertainty and employment, government debt thresholds, sovereign yields and debt ratings downgrades, labour productivity, the impact of inflation regimes on expansionary fiscal and monetary policy multipliers, the increase in government cost of funding on price and financial stability and the link between fiscal policy and credit dynamics.

This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile.We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.

As the stock market enters rocky territory, a distinguished economist shows how to prepare for and even profit from market-shattering events.

We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms' employment, hours and wages following tighter local labor market conditions. We find that employment and hours per worker fall and wages rise. This is consistent with the predictions of the response to a demand shock in the well-known “jobs ladder” model of labor markets. To check this interpretation, we show our results hold when instrumenting for local demand using county-level Department of Defense contract spending. Correction for dynamic sample bias is important -- without it, the hours fall by only one third as much and wages increase by double.

This book provides a broad overview of the current research on various aspects of development, with a focus on India. The content and treatment of the subject of development in this volume is distinctive in many ways. It is a balanced mix of theory and practical elements, dealing with a number of issues at micro as well as macro levels. The analyses of the current socio-economic problems are attempted in an elegant yet simple manner which makes it equally useful for an aspiring researcher in economics or any inter disciplinary field. The methodologies of the articles include analytical verbal argumentative logic, theoretical constructs or different versions of statistical, econometric or programming techniques. It also contains well written survey articles, which are useful in grasping the fundamental research issues and in tracing the progress of research in an area. The general scope of the book is very wide as the readership can include researchers, scholars, graduate and undergraduate students, policy makers and practitioners. Though the contributors are primarily scholars in the field of Economics or Statistics, the book contains useful takeaways for those working in the area of Development. It will also be of interest to policy makers and practitioners interested in development issues, and to post graduate students in Economics or any field, in social science, management or development.

Don't fear crises: use them as opportunities to make money! Shock Markets shows traders and investors exactly how to do it -- with exceptional detail, not vague handwaving. Robert Webb and Alexander Webb offer meticulous breakdowns of recent crises, revealing how they impacted both individual stocks and the market as a whole -- and helping you create detailed game plans for profiting from future shocks. By fusing real-life trading examples with rigorous moment-by-moment analysis of price changes, they give you tools to survive and thrive in even the most volatile markets. This accessible, actionable book answers crucial questions like: What moves stock prices? What moves the overall market? How can you profit from understanding catalysts that precipitate sudden sharp changes in stock prices? From the actions of corporate executives to regulatory decisions, earnings announcements to merger deals, lawsuits to settlements, macroeconomic reports to the policy actions of foreign governments, seemingly remote factors can have a huge, sudden impact on stocks in today's interconnected markets. Shock Markets illuminates these catalysts, and demonstrates their shifting behavior during fads, fashions, bubbles, crashes, and market crises. The focus is completely practical: helping savvy traders uncover profit where others find only peril.

Friendly and readable, Agricultural Marketing and Price Analysis presents a comprehensive approach to agricultural price analysis, agricultural market structures, and agricultural marketing strategies. The authors engage students with very little exposure to economics and with only a basic grasp of algebra. The text utilizes a fresh approach and supplies thorough coverage of core topics, as well as complex topics such as general equilibrium models, game theory, and econometrics. It also provides an introduction to data analysis and incorporates many examples. Supplemental materials are available for additional practice and further exploration. Unique to the Second Edition is the inclusion of a chapter on consumer behavior and food preferences, as well as relevant areas of research. The authors introduce readers to the agricultural supply chain, including forecasting and inventory management. Succinct and approachable, this text sets the stage for an enjoyable and effective learning experience.