The downhill slide in the global price of crude oil, which started mid-2014, had major repercussions across the Middle East for net oil exporters, as well as importers closely connected to the oil-producing countries from the Gulf. Following the Arab uprisings of 2010 and 2011, the oil price decline represented a second major shock for the region in the early twenty-first century – one that has continued to impose constraints, but also provided opportunities. Offering the first comprehensive analysis of the Middle Eastern political economy in response to the 2014 oil price decline, this book connects oil market dynamics with an understanding of socio-political changes. Inspired by rentierism, the contributors present original studies on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The studies reveal a large diversity of country-specific policy adjustment strategies: from the migrant workers in the Arab Gulf, who lost out in the post-2014 period but were incapable of repelling burdensome adjustment policies, to Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, who have never been able to fulfil the expectation that they could benefit from the 2014 oil price decline. With timely contributions on the COVID-19-induced oil price crash in 2020, this collection signifies that rentierism still prevails with regard to both empirical dynamics in the Middle East and academic discussions on its political economy.

Jeff D. Colgan explores why some oil-exporting countries are aggressive, while others are not. Using evidence from key countries such as Iraq, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, Petro-Aggression proposes a new theoretical framework to explain the importance of oil to international security.

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...

This open access book questions the stereotype depicting all Gulf (GCC) economies as not sustainable, and starts a critical discussion of what these economies and polities should do to guarantee themselves a relatively stable future. Volatile international oil markets and the acceleration of the energy transition has challenged the notion that oil revenues are sufficient to sustain oil economies in the near to medium term. But what is the meaning of economic sustainability? The book discusses the multiple dimensions of the concept: economic diversification, continuing value of resources, taxation and fiscal development, labor market sustainability, sustainable income distribution, environmental sustainability, political order (democracy or authoritarianism) and sustainability, regional integration. The overarching message in this book is that we should move on from the simplistic branding of the Gulf economies as unsustainable and tackle the details of which adaptations they might need to undertake.

This volume is unique and unprecedented in the way that it ties together various political and economic dimensions to draw a picture of the future Middle East scenarios. It gives us a far-reaching analysis of the reasons underlying economic conditions in the major oil-exporting countries of the Middle East. It also provides a comprehensive and positive blueprint for a social, political and economic turnaround. Hossein Askari s insider experience in most of these countries makes this valuable work a must-read for specialists and students of the area. Hossein Razavi, Director of Finance, Private Sector and Infrastructure Department, Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank, US Anyone who wants to grasp the economic status of this rather special, perhaps unique, part of the world will find here a knowledgeable and assiduous guide. Secondly, the book presents a strong and uncompromising argument about what these countries must do, and what the West must do, to improve the economic performance and social fabric of the MENA region, and thus better the daily lives of the inhabitants. From the foreword by Robert M. Solow, Nobel Laureate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US Hossein Askari argues here that economic and social failure in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East is a result of much more than simply shortcomings in economic policies. He analyzes religion, corruption, instability, wars and foreign interference as factors affecting the region and offers solutions that incorporate Islamic teachings, regional peace efforts, market-oriented economic policies, sound institutions and unselfish policy support from the West. Middle East Oil Exporters presents a detailed picture of the economic structure and a critical survey of the recent economic performance of the Middle East. The focus is especially on the large oil-exporting nations, although the smaller producers are represented as well. The author illustrates how oil has become a crutch to avoid reforms, destroying the work ethic of the region, fuelling corruption and poisoning the social and cultural fabric of society to keep unpopular governments in power. In addition, he provides a view of the social, economic, and political implications of Islamic doctrine. In this context he examines the institutions of governance and determines that they have performed poorly, often in blatant violation of Islamic principles. This in-depth analysis is accompanied by a comprehensive prescription for a turnaround in the Middle East. Hossein Askari s unique and insightful critique is essential reading for students and scholars of the Middle East, as well as policymakers involved in the region. Executives of financial institutions and private corporations will also want to understand the region for their energy needs and as a market for their products and services.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.