Preface v 1 On the History of the Growth-Optimal Portfolio M.M. Christensen 1 2 Empirical Log-Optimal Portfolio Selections: A Survey L. Györfi Gy. Ottucsáak A. Urbán 81 3 Log-Optimal Portfolio-Selection Strategies with Proportional Transaction Costs L. Györfi H. Walk 119 4 Growth-Optimal Portfoho Selection with Short Selling and Leverage M. Horváth A. Urbán 153 5 Nonparametric Sequential Prediction of Stationary Time Series L. Györfi Gy. Ottucsák 179 6 Empirical Pricing American Put Options L. Györfi A. Telcs 227 Index 249.

Over the next few decades, machine learning and data science will transform the finance industry. With this practical book, analysts, traders, researchers, and developers will learn how to build machine learning algorithms crucial to the industry. You’ll examine ML concepts and over 20 case studies in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, along with natural language processing (NLP). Ideal for professionals working at hedge funds, investment and retail banks, and fintech firms, this book also delves deep into portfolio management, algorithmic trading, derivative pricing, fraud detection, asset price prediction, sentiment analysis, and chatbot development. You’ll explore real-life problems faced by practitioners and learn scientifically sound solutions supported by code and examples. This book covers: Supervised learning regression-based models for trading strategies, derivative pricing, and portfolio management Supervised learning classification-based models for credit default risk prediction, fraud detection, and trading strategies Dimensionality reduction techniques with case studies in portfolio management, trading strategy, and yield curve construction Algorithms and clustering techniques for finding similar objects, with case studies in trading strategies and portfolio management Reinforcement learning models and techniques used for building trading strategies, derivatives hedging, and portfolio management NLP techniques using Python libraries such as NLTK and scikit-learn for transforming text into meaningful representations

The modern financial industry has been required to deal with large and diverse portfolios in a variety of asset classes often with limited market data available. Financial Signal Processing and Machine Learning unifies a number of recent advances made in signal processing and machine learning for the design and management of investment portfolios and financial engineering. This book bridges the gap between these disciplines, offering the latest information on key topics including characterizing statistical dependence and correlation in high dimensions, constructing effective and robust risk measures, and their use in portfolio optimization and rebalancing. The book focuses on signal processing approaches to model return, momentum, and mean reversion, addressing theoretical and implementation aspects. It highlights the connections between portfolio theory, sparse learning and compressed sensing, sparse eigen-portfolios, robust optimization, non-Gaussian data-driven risk measures, graphical models, causal analysis through temporal-causal modeling, and large-scale copula-based approaches. Key features: Highlights signal processing and machine learning as key approaches to quantitative finance. Offers advanced mathematical tools for high-dimensional portfolio construction, monitoring, and post-trade analysis problems. Presents portfolio theory, sparse learning and compressed sensing, sparsity methods for investment portfolios. including eigen-portfolios, model return, momentum, mean reversion and non-Gaussian data-driven risk measures with real-world applications of these techniques. Includes contributions from leading researchers and practitioners in both the signal and information processing communities, and the quantitative finance community.

This book introduces machine learning methods in finance. It presents a unified treatment of machine learning and various statistical and computational disciplines in quantitative finance, such as financial econometrics and discrete time stochastic control, with an emphasis on how theory and hypothesis tests inform the choice of algorithm for financial data modeling and decision making. With the trend towards increasing computational resources and larger datasets, machine learning has grown into an important skillset for the finance industry. This book is written for advanced graduate students and academics in financial econometrics, mathematical finance and applied statistics, in addition to quants and data scientists in the field of quantitative finance. Machine Learning in Finance: From Theory to Practice is divided into three parts, each part covering theory and applications. The first presents supervised learning for cross-sectional data from both a Bayesian and frequentist perspective. The more advanced material places a firm emphasis on neural networks, including deep learning, as well as Gaussian processes, with examples in investment management and derivative modeling. The second part presents supervised learning for time series data, arguably the most common data type used in finance with examples in trading, stochastic volatility and fixed income modeling. Finally, the third part presents reinforcement learning and its applications in trading, investment and wealth management. Python code examples are provided to support the readers' understanding of the methodologies and applications. The book also includes more than 80 mathematical and programming exercises, with worked solutions available to instructors. As a bridge to research in this emergent field, the final chapter presents the frontiers of machine learning in finance from a researcher's perspective, highlighting how many well-known concepts in statistical physics are likely to emerge as important methodologies for machine learning in finance.

Learn to understand and implement the latest machine learning innovations to improve your investment performance Machine learning (ML) is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. Today, ML algorithms accomplish tasks that – until recently – only expert humans could perform. And finance is ripe for disruptive innovations that will transform how the following generations understand money and invest. In the book, readers will learn how to: Structure big data in a way that is amenable to ML algorithms Conduct research with ML algorithms on big data Use supercomputing methods and back test their discoveries while avoiding false positives Advances in Financial Machine Learning addresses real life problems faced by practitioners every day, and explains scientifically sound solutions using math, supported by code and examples. Readers become active users who can test the proposed solutions in their individual setting. Written by a recognized expert and portfolio manager, this book will equip investment professionals with the groundbreaking tools needed to succeed in modern finance.

In today's world, we are increasingly exposed to the words 'machine learning' (ML), a term which sounds like a panacea designed to cure all problems ranging from image recognition to machine language translation. Over the past few years, ML has gradually permeated the financial sector, reshaping the landscape of quantitative finance as we know it.An Introduction to Machine Learning in Quantitative Finance aims to demystify ML by uncovering its underlying mathematics and showing how to apply ML methods to real-world financial data. In this book the authorsFeatured with the balance of mathematical theorems and practical code examples of ML, this book will help you acquire an in-depth understanding of ML algorithms as well as hands-on experience. After reading An Introduction to Machine Learning in Quantitative Finance, ML tools will not be a black box to you anymore, and you will feel confident in successfully applying what you have learnt to empirical financial data!

This book presents a system that combines the expertise of four algorithms, namely Gradient Tree Boosting, Logistic Regression, Random Forest and Support Vector Classifier to trade with several cryptocurrencies. A new method for resampling financial data is presented as alternative to the classical time sampled data commonly used in financial market trading. The new resampling method uses a closing value threshold to resample the data creating a signal better suited for financial trading, thus achieving higher returns without increased risk. The performance of the algorithm with the new resampling method and the classical time sampled data are compared and the advantages of using the system developed in this work are highlighted.

Successful investment strategies are specific implementations of general theories. An investment strategy that lacks a theoretical justification is likely to be false. Hence, an asset manager should concentrate her efforts on developing a theory rather than on backtesting potential trading rules. The purpose of this Element is to introduce machine learning (ML) tools that can help asset managers discover economic and financial theories. ML is not a black box, and it does not necessarily overfit. ML tools complement rather than replace the classical statistical methods. Some of ML's strengths include (1) a focus on out-of-sample predictability over variance adjudication; (2) the use of computational methods to avoid relying on (potentially unrealistic) assumptions; (3) the ability to "learn" complex specifications, including nonlinear, hierarchical, and noncontinuous interaction effects in a high-dimensional space; and (4) the ability to disentangle the variable search from the specification search, robust to multicollinearity and other substitution effects.

The new edition of this influential textbook, geared towards graduate or advanced undergraduate students, teaches the statistics necessary for financial engineering. In doing so, it illustrates concepts using financial markets and economic data, R Labs with real-data exercises, and graphical and analytic methods for modeling and diagnosing modeling errors. These methods are critical because financial engineers now have access to enormous quantities of data. To make use of this data, the powerful methods in this book for working with quantitative information, particularly about volatility and risks, are essential. Strengths of this fully-revised edition include major additions to the R code and the advanced topics covered. Individual chapters cover, among other topics, multivariate distributions, copulas, Bayesian computations, risk management, and cointegration. Suggested prerequisites are basic knowledge of statistics and probability, matrices and linear algebra, and calculus. There is an appendix on probability, statistics and linear algebra. Practicing financial engineers will also find this book of interest.

Plan and build useful machine learning systems for financial services, with full working Python code Key Features Build machine learning systems that will be useful across the financial services industry Discover how machine learning can solve finance industry challenges Gain the machine learning insights and skills fintech companies value most Book Description Machine learning skills are essential for anybody working in financial data analysis. Machine Learning for Finance shows you how to build machine learning models for use in financial services organizations. It shows you how to work with all the key machine learning models, from simple regression to advanced neural networks. You will see how to use machine learning to automate manual tasks, identify and address systemic bias, and find new insights and patterns hidden in available data. Machine Learning for Finance encourages and equips you to find new ways to use data to serve an organization's business goals. Broad in scope yet deeply practical in approach, Machine Learning for Finance will help you to apply machine learning in all parts of a financial organization's infrastructure. If you work or plan to work in fintech, and want to gain one of the most valuable skills in the sector today, this book is for you. What you will learn Practical machine learning for the finance sector Build machine learning systems that support the goals of financial organizations Think creatively about problems and how machine learning can solve them Identify and reduce sources of bias from machine learning models Apply machine learning to structured data, natural language, photographs, and written text related to finance Use machine learning to detect fraud, forecast financial trends, analyze customer sentiments, and more Implement heuristic baselines, time series, generative models, and reinforcement learning in Python, scikit-learn, Keras, and TensorFlow Who this book is for Machine Learning for Finance is for financial professionals who want to develop and apply machine learning skills, and for students entering the field. You should be comfortable with Python and the basic data science stack, such as NumPy, pandas, and Matplotlib, to get the most out of this book.