This volume deals with two complementary topics. On one hand the book deals with the problem of determining the the probability distribution of a positive compound random variable, a problem which appears in the banking and insurance industries, in many areas of operational research and in reliability problems in the engineering sciences. On the other hand, the methodology proposed to solve such problems, which is based on an application of the maximum entropy method to invert the Laplace transform of the distributions, can be applied to many other problems. The book contains applications to a large variety of problems, including the problem of dependence of the sample data used to estimate empirically the Laplace transform of the random variable. Contents Introduction Frequency models Individual severity models Some detailed examples Some traditional approaches to the aggregation problem Laplace transforms and fractional moment problems The standard maximum entropy method Extensions of the method of maximum entropy Superresolution in maxentropic Laplace transform inversion Sample data dependence Disentangling frequencies and decompounding losses Computations using the maxentropic density Review of statistical procedures

An update of one of the most trusted books on constructing and analyzing actuarial models Written by three renowned authorities in the actuarial field, Loss Models, Third Edition upholds the reputation for excellence that has made this book required reading for the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) qualification examinations. This update serves as a complete presentation of statistical methods for measuring risk and building models to measure loss in real-world events. This book maintains an approach to modeling and forecasting that utilizes tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. Random variables, basic distributional quantities, the recursive method, and techniques for classifying and creating distributions are also discussed. Both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice for choosing an appropriate model. Features of the Third Edition include: Extended discussion of risk management and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) New sections on extreme value distributions and their estimation Inclusion of homogeneous, nonhomogeneous, and mixed Poisson processes Expanded coverage of copula models and their estimation Additional treatment of methods for constructing confidence regions when there is more than one parameter The book continues to distinguish itself by providing over 400 exercises that have appeared on previous SOA and CAS examinations. Intriguing examples from the fields of insurance and business are discussed throughout, and all data sets are available on the book's FTP site, along with programs that assist with conducting loss model analysis. Loss Models, Third Edition is an essential resource for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA and CAS preliminary examinations. It is also a must-have reference for professional actuaries, graduate students in the actuarial field, and anyone who works with loss and risk models in their everyday work. To explore our additional offerings in actuarial exam preparation visit www.wiley.com/go/actuarialexamprep.

If your company is struggling, losing its visibility or failing in growth projections, you need Win/Loss Analysis. Woven throughout are steps to gather competitive intelligence and customer insight. With the guidance of this book, you will remove the guesswork and gain more business through Win/Loss Analysis.

A Hands-On Approach to Understanding and Using Actuarial ModelsComputational Actuarial Science with R provides an introduction to the computational aspects of actuarial science. Using simple R code, the book helps you understand the algorithms involved in actuarial computations. It also covers more advanced topics, such as parallel computing and C/

The new edition of this influential textbook, geared towards graduate or advanced undergraduate students, teaches the statistics necessary for financial engineering. In doing so, it illustrates concepts using financial markets and economic data, R Labs with real-data exercises, and graphical and analytic methods for modeling and diagnosing modeling errors. These methods are critical because financial engineers now have access to enormous quantities of data. To make use of this data, the powerful methods in this book for working with quantitative information, particularly about volatility and risks, are essential. Strengths of this fully-revised edition include major additions to the R code and the advanced topics covered. Individual chapters cover, among other topics, multivariate distributions, copulas, Bayesian computations, risk management, and cointegration. Suggested prerequisites are basic knowledge of statistics and probability, matrices and linear algebra, and calculus. There is an appendix on probability, statistics and linear algebra. Practicing financial engineers will also find this book of interest.

Presents the fundamentals and calculation of transmission line losses, their reduction, and economic implications • Written by a very experienced expert in this field • Introduces various technical measures for loss reduction, and appended with a large number of examples • Offers a progressive and systematic approach to various aspects of the problems • A timely and original book to meet the challenges of power and grid industry development

We present some results of the application of maximum entropy methods to determine the probability density of compound random variables. This problem is very important in the banking and insurance business, but also appears in system reliability and in operations research. The mathematical tool consists of inverting Laplace transforms of positive compound random variables using the maximum entropy method. This method needs a very small number of (real) values of the Laplace transform, is robust, works with small data sets, and it can be extended to include errors in the data as well as data specified up to intervals. In symbols, the basic typical problem consist in determining the density f S of a compound random variable like S = ∑ Nn=1 X n , or that of a sum of such random variables. There, N is an integer random variable and then X n are a sequence of positive, continuous random variables, independent among themselves and of N. Our methodology can be applied to determine the probability density of the total loss S and that of the individual losses.

Operational Risk Management in Banks and Idiosyncratic Loss Theory: A Leadership Perspective offers consensus considerations that could bolster effective risk management practices in enterprise-wide risk, thereby helping to control fraud and go beyond the minimum risk assessment requirements set forth by the banking regulators.

Essentials of Modeling and Analytics illustrates how and why analytics can be used effectively by loss prevention staff. The book offers an in-depth overview of analytics, first illustrating how analytics are used to solve business problems, then exploring the tools and training that staff will need in order to engage solutions. The text also covers big data analytical tools and discusses if and when they are right for retail loss prevention professionals, and illustrates how to use analytics to test the effectiveness of loss prevention initiatives. Ideal for loss prevention personnel on all levels, this book can also be used for loss prevention analytics courses. Essentials of Modeling and Analytics was named one of the best Analytics books of all time by BookAuthority, one of the world's leading independent sites for nonfiction book recommendations.

Randomized clinical trials are the primary tool for evaluating new medical interventions. Randomization provides for a fair comparison between treatment and control groups, balancing out, on average, distributions of known and unknown factors among the participants. Unfortunately, these studies often lack a substantial percentage of data. This missing data reduces the benefit provided by the randomization and introduces potential biases in the comparison of the treatment groups. Missing data can arise for a variety of reasons, including the inability or unwillingness of participants to meet appointments for evaluation. And in some studies, some or all of data collection ceases when participants discontinue study treatment. Existing guidelines for the design and conduct of clinical trials, and the analysis of the resulting data, provide only limited advice on how to handle missing data. Thus, approaches to the analysis of data with an appreciable amount of missing values tend to be ad hoc and variable. The Prevention and Treatment of Missing Data in Clinical Trials concludes that a more principled approach to design and analysis in the presence of missing data is both needed and possible. Such an approach needs to focus on two critical elements: (1) careful design and conduct to limit the amount and impact of missing data and (2) analysis that makes full use of information on all randomized participants and is based on careful attention to the assumptions about the nature of the missing data underlying estimates of treatment effects. In addition to the highest priority recommendations, the book offers more detailed recommendations on the conduct of clinical trials and techniques for analysis of trial data.