The COVID-19 pandemic put significant pressures on fiscal accounts during 2020 through a contraction of revenues and increased spending needs to tackle the pandemic and its economic fallout. In response to these pressures, the countries benefitting from the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) have faced difficult choices to reprioritize spending, especially capital spending, even as they allowed higher overall fiscal deficits. This note summarizes the findings from the update of the fiscal monitoring system for the COVID-19 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The DSSI was endorsed by the G20 Finance Ministers on April 15, 2020 and extended twice in October 2020 (until end-June 2021) and April 2021 (until end-2021). During May–December 2020 (the first phase), 43 countries participated, and 42 countries have formally requested their participation in the initiative during January–June 2021 (the second phase, as of July 30, 2021).

Global growth is expected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.

This is the United Nations definitive report on the state of the world economy, providing global and regional economic outlook for 2022 and 2023. The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022 will examine the recovery of the global economy from the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to presenting the latest UN growth forecasts, the report will provide a comprehensive assessment of economic developments, risk factors, and policy challenges. This year’s thematic chapter will discuss the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of monetary policy, with particular focus on unconventional measures such as quantitative easing (QE).

The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.

Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period. Several risks cloud the outlook, including those related to the pandemic and to rapidly rising debt. The pandemic has further diminished already-weak growth prospects for the next decade. Decisive policy actions will be critical in raising the likelihood of better growth outcomes while warding off worse ones. Immediate priorities include supporting vulnerable groups and ensuring a prompt and widespread vaccination process to bring the pandemic under control. Although macroeconomic policy support will continue to be important, limited fiscal policy space amid high debt highlights the need for an ambitious reform agenda that bolsters growth prospects. To address many of these challenges, global cooperation will be key. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Public debt in lower-income economies (LIEs) has risen in recent years, with half of the countries covered in this report now assessed to be at high risk of or already in debt distress.

This Selected Issues paper examines the drivers and prospects for high levels of savings in China. China has one of the highest levels of national savings in the world, which is at the heart of its external and internal imbalances. High and rising household savings have mainly resulted from demographic changes as a result of the one-child policy and the breakdown of the social safety net during the transition from a planned to a market economy. Demographic changes will put downward pressure on national savings. Policy efforts to strengthen the social safety net and reduce income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and faster and to boost consumption.

Liberia’s real per-capita income is still about a third of the level prior internal conflicts. Notwithstanding the strong economic rebound recorded after the pandemic, a large infrastructure gap has remained, and the expected domestic revenue mobilization has not materialized. These two factors have posed significant economic and fiscal challenges in the short and medium term. The implementation of the 2019-23 Fund-supported program was mixed, with a strong start followed by a disappointing performance ahead of the recent presidential elections. To address current and future challenges, fiscal discipline needs to be restored, governance vulnerabilities addressed, and the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) governance, independence, and supervisory role strengthened. Therefore, scope for deviation from the established policy and reform agenda is very limited given the implications to debt sustainability and capacity to repay the Fund.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2022