This paper focuses on expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation, which continued to be debated throughout the post-war period. Concerns rose during the late 1960s and early 1970s about rapid population growth smothering the potential for economic growth in developing countries were contradicted when, during the mid- and late-1970s, fertility rates began to decline rapidly. In policy-oriented institutions (and in most businesses and individual decision making), policymaking decisions are often guided by projections and forward-looking indicators. The case of Michael Mussa has been one of great anticipation, and of great accomplishment, and all the early optimistic forecasts about him have turned out to be correct. Within the sphere of economics, undoubtedly the most famous and widely used forecast—one, incidentally, that thus far has often been incorrect—is that based on the Malthusian doctrine of the relationship between resources and population.

The global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 has blasted livelihoods, inspired protests, and toppled governments. It has also highlighted the profound moral concerns long surrounding globalization. Did materialist excess, doctrinaire embrace of free trade and capital flows, and indifference to economic injustice contribute to the disaster of the last decade? Was it ethical to bail out banks and governments while innocent people suffered? In this blend of economics, moral philosophy, history, and politics, Steven R. Weisman argues that the concepts of liberty, justice, virtue, and loyalty help to explain the passionate disagreements spawned by a globally integrated economy.

Economic anxiety and loss of trust in civic institutions are driving more and more people to political extremes. How did we get here, and how do we get our economic policies back on track before the democracies of the world derail? From former Belgian minister of finance and bestselling author Johan Van Overtveldt comes a new analysis of the economic forces that have driven us to the brink of a democratic breakdown. The Icarus Curse offers a stark assessment of the current state of Western democracies, once celebrated as the pinnacle of political and economic success. With the demise of the Soviet Union and China's emergence onto the world stage, the Western model faced no viable challengers. However, three decades later, Western democracies find themselves under siege both externally and internally. Russia, Iran, and especially China openly challenge the liberal Western order, while internally, citizens increasingly question the democratic and free market system, leading to polarization and social unrest. The political elite in most Western democracies flew too close to the sun, and now they’re crashing. In The Icarus Curse, Van Overtveldt argues that decades of Keynesian-inspired policies have led to policy exhaustion, with politicians fueling unrealistic expectations and accumulating debt. Despite central bankers' efforts to mitigate crises, the current policy model is unsustainable, leaving little room for significant change. Yet, there is hope for redemption: Van Overtveldt reviews the ideas of Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, and Paul Volcker to put forward ideas to redesign policies for a brighter economic future.

Transparency in government operations is widely regarded as an important precondition for macroeconomic fiscal sustainability, good governance, and overall fiscal rectitude. Notably, the Interim Committee, at its April and September 1996 meetings, stressed the need for greater fiscal transparency. Prompted by these concerns, this paper represents a first attempt to address many of the aspects of transparency in government operations. It provides an overview of major issues in fiscal transparency and examines the IMF's role in promoting transparency in government operations.

This book edited by Michael Mussa, James M. Boughton, and Peter Isard, records the proceedings of a seminar held at the IMF in March 1996 on the future of the special drawing right (SDR), given changes in the international monetary system since the inception of the SDR. The seminar focuses on the differences in opinion in the international community on the desirability or feasibility of an additional allocation of SDRs.

This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways. The paper discusses the three-pronged approach to stabilization at the core of all IMF-supported programs, stresses the iterative character of “financial programming,” and explains the rationale for setting quantitative performance criteria for fiscal and monetary policy in IMF-supported arrangements. A main theme is that IMF-supported programs contain a great deal of flexibility to respond both to differences in circumstances and to changes in conditions in individual cases.

This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries

In 1978, China embarked on a gradual but far-reaching reform of its economic system. This paper focuses on the achievements so far in reforming the financial sector, the legal framework for financial transactions, the payments system, and the monetary policy and foreign exchange system. It also analyzes the tasks ahead to achieve the goals set in these areas for the year 2000.

This paper discusses the extent to which national capital markets have become linked, and identifies several of the more important consequences of that increased degree of integration. Alternative approaches to the measurement of capital market integration are reviewed, including deviations from the law of one price, differences between actual and optimally diversified portfolios, correlations between domestic investment and domestic saving, and cross-country links in consumption behavior. Two recent episodes of large-scale international capital flows—namely, the turmoil in the European Monetary System in the fall of 1992, and the surge of capital inflows into Latin America during the last three years—are examined for insights into the workings of today’s global capital market. Finally, the paper offers some concluding remarks on the future development of international capital markets, on exchange rate management, on alternative approaches to living with larger and more influential financial markets, and on the financing of investment in the formerly centrally planned economies.

IMF economists work closely with member countries on a variety of issues. Their unique perspective on country experiences and best practices on global macroeconomic issues are often shared in the form of books on diverse topics such as cross-country comparisons, capacity building, macroeconomic policy, financial integration, and globalization.