This book constitutes revised selected papers from the 4th International Workshop on Graphical Models for Security, GraMSec 2017, held in Santa Barbara, CA, USA, in August 2017. The 5 full and 4 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 19 submissions. The book also contains one invited paper from the WISER project. The contributions deal with the latest research and developments on graphical models for security.

This book constitutes the proceedings of the 7th International Workshop on Graphical Models for Security, GramSec 2020, which took place on June 22, 2020. The workshop was planned to take place in Boston, MA, USA but changed to a virtual format due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 7 full and 3 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 14 submissions. The papers were organized in topical sections named: attack trees; attacks and risks modelling and visualization; and models for reasoning about security.

This book constitutes revised papers from the 6th International Workshop on Graphical Models for Security, GraMSec 2019, held in Hoboken, NJ, USA, in June 2019. The 8 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 15 submissions. The book also contains two invited talk. The contributions deal with the latest research and developments on graphical models for security.

This volume constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the Second International Workshop on Graphical Models for Security, GraMSec 2015, held in Verona, Italy, in July 2015.The 5 revised full papers presented together with one short tool paper and one invited lecture were carefully reviewed and selected from 13 submissions. The workshop contributes to the development of well-founded graphical security models, efficient algorithms for their analysis, as well as methodologies for their practical usage, thus providing an intuitive but systematic methodology to analyze security weaknesses of systems and to evaluate potential protection measures. /div

A general framework for constructing and using probabilistic models of complex systems that would enable a computer to use available information for making decisions. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason—to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings from the Third International Workshop on Graphical Models for Security, GraMSec 2016, held in Lisbon, Portugal, in June 2016. The 9 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 23 submissions. The volume also contains the invited talk by Xinming Ou. GraMSec contributes to the development of well-founded graphical security models, efficient algorithms for their analysis, as well as methodologies for their practical usage.

This book constitutes revised selected papers from the 5th International Workshop on Graphical Models for Security, GraMSec 2018, held in Oxford, UK, in July 2018. The 7 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 21 submissions. The book also contains one invited talk. The contributions deal with the latest research and developments on graphical models for security.

This fully updated new edition of a uniquely accessible textbook/reference provides a general introduction to probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) from an engineering perspective. It features new material on partially observable Markov decision processes, causal graphical models, causal discovery and deep learning, as well as an even greater number of exercises; it also incorporates a software library for several graphical models in Python. The book covers the fundamentals for each of the main classes of PGMs, including representation, inference and learning principles, and reviews real-world applications for each type of model. These applications are drawn from a broad range of disciplines, highlighting the many uses of Bayesian classifiers, hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic and temporal Bayesian networks, Markov random fields, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes. Topics and features: Presents a unified framework encompassing all of the main classes of PGMs Explores the fundamental aspects of representation, inference and learning for each technique Examines new material on partially observable Markov decision processes, and graphical models Includes a new chapter introducing deep neural networks and their relation with probabilistic graphical models Covers multidimensional Bayesian classifiers, relational graphical models, and causal models Provides substantial chapter-ending exercises, suggestions for further reading, and ideas for research or programming projects Describes classifiers such as Gaussian Naive Bayes, Circular Chain Classifiers, and Hierarchical Classifiers with Bayesian Networks Outlines the practical application of the different techniques Suggests possible course outlines for instructors This classroom-tested work is suitable as a textbook for an advanced undergraduate or a graduate course in probabilistic graphical models for students of computer science, engineering, and physics. Professionals wishing to apply probabilistic graphical models in their own field, or interested in the basis of these techniques, will also find the book to be an invaluable reference. Dr. Luis Enrique Sucar is a Senior Research Scientist at the National Institute for Astrophysics, Optics and Electronics (INAOE), Puebla, Mexico. He received the National Science Prize en 2016.

The idea of modelling systems using graph theory has its origin in several scientific areas: in statistical physics (the study of large particle systems), in genetics (studying inheritable properties of natural species), and in interactions in contingency tables. The use of graphical models in statistics has increased considerably over recent years and the theory has been greatly developed and extended. This book provides the first comprehensive and authoritative account of the theory of graphical models and is written by a leading expert in the field. It contains the fundamental graph theory required and a thorough study of Markov properties associated with various type of graphs. The statistical theory of log-linear and graphical models for contingency tables, covariance selection models, and graphical models with mixed discrete-continous variables in developed detail. Special topics, such as the application of graphical models to probabilistic expert systems, are described briefly, and appendices give details of the multivarate normal distribution and of the theory of regular exponential families. The author has recently been awarded the RSS Guy Medal in Silver 1996 for his innovative contributions to statistical theory and practice, and especially for his work on graphical models.

This book exemplifies the interplay between the general formal framework of graphical models and the exploration of new algorithm and architectures. The selections range from foundational papers of historical importance to results at the cutting edge of research. Graphical models use graphs to represent and manipulate joint probability distributions. They have their roots in artificial intelligence, statistics, and neural networks. The clean mathematical formalism of the graphical models framework makes it possible to understand a wide variety of network-based approaches to computation, and in particular to understand many neural network algorithms and architectures as instances of a broader probabilistic methodology. It also makes it possible to identify novel features of neural network algorithms and architectures and to extend them to more general graphical models.This book exemplifies the interplay between the general formal framework of graphical models and the exploration of new algorithms and architectures. The selections range from foundational papers of historical importance to results at the cutting edge of research. Contributors H. Attias, C. M. Bishop, B. J. Frey, Z. Ghahramani, D. Heckerman, G. E. Hinton, R. Hofmann, R. A. Jacobs, Michael I. Jordan, H. J. Kappen, A. Krogh, R. Neal, S. K. Riis, F. B. Rodríguez, L. K. Saul, Terrence J. Sejnowski, P. Smyth, M. E. Tipping, V. Tresp, Y. Weiss