What is the impact of demographics on the prospective production of military power and the causes of war? This monograph analyzes this issue by projecting working-age populations through 2050; assessing the influence of demographics on manpower, national income and expenditures, and human capital; and examining how changes in these factors may affect the ability of states to carry out military missions.

"Remarkably, most conventional wisdom about the shifting balance of world power virtually ignores one of the most fundamental components of power: population. The studies that do consider international security and demographic trends almost unanimously focus on population growth as a liability. In contrast, the distinguished contributors to this volume--security experts from the Naval War College, the American Enterprise Institute, and other think tanks--contend that demographic decline in key world powers now poses a profound challenge to global stability. The countries at greatest risk are in the developed world, where birthrates are falling and populations are aging. Many have already lost significant human capital, capital that would have helped them innovate and fuel their economy, man their armed forces, and secure a place at the table of world power. By examining the effects of diverging population trends between the United States and Europe and the effects of rapid population aging in Japan, India, and China, this book uncovers increasing tensions within the transatlantic alliance and destabilizing trends in Asian security. Thus, it argues, relative demographic decline may well make the world less, and not more, secure."--Publisher.

What is the impact of demographics on the prospective production of military power and the causes of war? This monograph analyzes this issue by projecting working-age populations through 2050; assessing the influence of demographics on manpower, national income and expenditures, and human capital; and examining how changes in these factors may affect the ability of states to carry out military missions.

Demographic changes directly affect political and socioeconomic dynamics. Whether they are the nationalities of migrating refugees, the percentage of women in the workforce, or aging as a phenomenon (population decline, age of marriage, number of children, or the resources of youth), demographics can change the political dynamics of a country, creating in some cases increased freedoms but also potentially causing conflict or civil war. Power to the Population is a comprehensive guide to predicting and evaluating different possible futures for humanity. These differing scenarios are of particular importance to decision makers, and Tadeusz Kugler focuses on the optimism of what can be created by and for the population. The book investigates the dynamic relationship between political choices and changing populations. Kugler explores how government policies seemingly focused on localized power and economic development profoundly shape the demographic makeup on local and global scales. The demographic future of a population—not only regarding numbers but also in its diversity and how historically marginalized communities are undermined—is not merely about one place, time, or people. Demography has the potential to change the economic and political future of the world.

The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media. "Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign-policy direction." Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.

The demographic trends of the twenty-first century will challenge the geopolitical assumptions of both the left and the right."--BOOK JACKET.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Military recruitment will become more difficult in times of demographic aging. The question arises whether demographic change will constrain the capacity of aging states like Germany to conduct foreign policy and pursue their national security interests. Since contemporary military operations still display a strong human element, particular scrutiny is given to the empirical analysis of the determinants of military propensity and military service among youth. An additional human capital projection until 2030 illustrates how the decline in the youth population will interact with trends in educational attainment and adolescent health to further complicate military recruitment in the future. A concluding review of recruiting practices in other NATO countries provides insight in best-practice policy options to reduce the military’s sensitivity to demographic change. Following this approach, the book gives prominence to a topic that has thus far been under-represented in the greater discussion of demographic change today, namely the demographic impact on international affairs and strategic calculations.

This comprehensive and clear volume reveals the numerous ways demographic trends such as age structure, composition, and migration influence national security. Population size, structure, distribution, and composition affect security in numerous ways, including national power, civil conflict, and development. The Future Faces of War: Population and National Security offers a comprehensive overview of how demographic trends can function as components, indicators, and multipliers of a state's national security. Each chapter focuses on a particular demographic trend and describes its national security implications in three realms—military, regime, and structural. Illustrating the mechanisms by which demography and security are connected, the book pushes the conversation forward by challenging common conceptions about demographic trends and national security. Key for policymakers and general readers alike, it goes on to suggest ways trends can provide opportunities for building partnerships and strengthening states. Focusing on multiple scenarios and the theoretical links between population and security, the insights gathered here will remain relevant for years to come.