First published in 2001, Causality in Macroeconomics addresses the long-standing problems of causality while taking macroeconomics seriously. The practical concerns of the macroeconomist and abstract concerns of the philosopher inform each other. Grounded in pragmatic realism, the book rejects the popular idea that macroeconomics requires microfoundations, and argues that the macroeconomy is a set of structures that are best analyzed causally. Ideas originally due to Herbert Simon and the Cowles Commission are refined and generalized to non-linear systems, particularly to the non-linear systems with cross-equation restrictions that are ubiquitous in modern macroeconomic models with rational expectations (with and without regime-switching). These ideas help to clarify philosophical as well as economic issues. The structural approach to causality is then used to evaluate more familiar approaches to causality due to Granger, LeRoy and Glymour, Spirtes, Scheines and Kelly, as well as vector autoregressions, the Lucas critique, and the exogeneity concepts of Engle, Hendry and Richard.

A serial killer stalks the agents of Department Z in a rip-roaring thriller from the Edgar Award–winning author who sold eighty million books worldwide. London, 1941. In the unending darkness of the London Blackout, an assassin slinks through the night, striking down victims with deadly accuracy. His targets are agents, killed while on watch. Department Z is baffled. Who is the silent killer, why is he targeting them, and what is their secret . . . just how are they managing to take down the best-trained agents in Britain? Gordon Craigie, Department Z’s fearless leader, soon finds himself faced with the toughest challenge of his career—to catch the killer before his deadly skill falls into enemy hands, putting all of Europe in grave danger . . . “Mr. Creasey realizes that it is the principal business of thrillers to thrill.” —Church Times “Little appears in the newspapers about the Secret Service, but that little makes anything on the subject probable fiction. Mr. Creasey proves himself worthy of the chance.” —The Times Literary Supplement